"We are suffering from a media epidemic"

[Borchester]

So its went from 250 000 imperial college figures , 500 000 neil ferguson figures , to 1.2 million acturial chinese figures?



Why not  10 million theoretical Javert figures?



You will probably have some people on board when you are being reasonable pappy , but when you over egg the pudding like this , you start to lose all credibility.



The actual figure as i understand it that government , scientists and medical experts are taking more serious than the worst worst case scenario figures in the entire world based on coughing and sneezing in every single one of the 67 million uk inhabitants faces is around 20 000 based on current factual restrictions being applied.



The rest is nonsensical rubbish which is to be frank switching people off.

Between ourselves Tommy, the deaths seem to be declining. I won't bet on it because the last time I did Barry had me contributing a chunk of my pension to Battersea Dogs Home Kennomeat  fund, but the next week might well show that we have turned the corner.



It is a bit like being in the army. And here the cack handed analogies will come thick and fast, but when there is nothing to be done something has to be done to keep the troops occupied. So we are running around wearing masks, sealing up the plague victims, whitewashing the barracks, painting the grass green and generally doing our well meaning and ineffectual best to look busy.



What we really need is a tank. Something that will cross No Man's Land and kill the Covid virus. We don't have anything like that right now and probably won't for a few more years by which time we will have found something else to panic over. The EU's application to join the UK perhaps?



 

[Javert]

A chest X-ray does, the lungs are black, (The usual cause of that has not existed for several decades.)

You are right but it's not clear to me that they are currently signing off COD as Covid-19 based only on that, although I agree with you that they should be if the patient had other compatible symptoms.  Dark lungs at least to some extent can also be caused by pneumonia, but most forms of pneumonia would respond to antibiotics whereas Covid-19 related viral pneumonia will not.

[Scott777]

Has anybody else noticed a bit of interesting word play, which I have noticed a few times recently.



Yesterday it was reported that a Nurse had sadly died after she had tested positive for Corvid-19 They did not however say that she died directly, because of the infection or as a direct consequence of complications caused by the infection.

Like I said at the beginning, I have heard these wordings used a number of times recently.

It happens all the time, Sampan.  As I say, I first notice this little trick in 1995.

[Javert]

Has anybody else noticed a bit of interesting word play, which I have noticed a few times recently.



Yesterday it was reported that a Nurse had sadly died after she had tested positive for Corvid-19 They did not however say that she died directly, because of the infection or as a direct consequence of complications caused by the infection.

Like I said at the beginning, I have heard these wordings used a number of times recently.

This is because of several things.



First, it's not actually Covid-19 that kills you - it's when your immune system goes haywire in response to it and starts attacking your own body.  By that time, the Covid-19 itself has been fought off.



Second, the official cause of death has to be certified and many not have been done yet by that time.



Third, many people who die after testing positive were already having several other health conditions, and some of them would have been expected to die within the next year or so anyway due to that other condition.  Depending on the exact case, it might not be 100% clear whether the Covid-19 was the direct cause of death, or contributed to a premature death form the other condition.  This doesn't change the fact that if this person had not caught Covid-19 they would still be alive today.

[Scott777]

Link?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/">https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... ied-italy/">https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/



I know what you gonna say.  Just MSM.  Yes, but they quote him, and that's dangerous for them to make false quotes.

[papasmurf]

Point b is incorrect - the current test doesn't work after death,

A chest X-ray does, the lungs are black, (The usual cause of that has not existed for several decades.)

[Sampanviking]

Has anybody else noticed a bit of interesting word play, which I have noticed a few times recently.



Yesterday it was reported that a Nurse had sadly died after she had tested positive for Corvid-19 They did not however say that she died directly, because of the infection or as a direct consequence of complications caused by the infection.

Like I said at the beginning, I have heard these wordings used a number of times recently.

[Javert]

I disagree on both counts.



a: The lag would be true for every month, unless the figures are updated, which is unlikely.



b: If the test was negative, then it's unlikely they died of it.  I don't believe people dying are not being tested for it, given how seriously hospitals are taking the pandemic.

Point b is incorrect - the current test doesn't work after death, and even gives a significant percent of false negatives after the first 6-7 days of having symptoms - I got this info directly from several doctors and consultants working with Covid-19 patients, but I'm sure you know better.



The government doesn't want this publicised because people might start asking, if the test is only 100% accurate in the first 5-7 days of symptoms, why are we telling everyone to stay at home until they are nearly dead, when this means that quite a few Covid-19 patients will test negative.



The other supporting data for this is the figures released last Monday which showed that almost half of the tests done the day before, were retests on the same people that had already been tested once - if the test is 100% reliable, why retest people again?  This is all very clear if you speak to the actual people treating this illness on the front line - no journalists even asked about this which almost makes me think there is some kind of gagging order in place about it.

[papasmurf]

If the lockdown continues as needed, and then "only" 20,000 people die, you are suggesting it will be a big scandal,

Not really, there have been 20000 deaths from flu in the UK in the past, since the annual innoculation programme there have been well below that.

[Javert]

Which scientists?



Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy's minister of health:



"On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates (Italy) have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three."

Link?

[Javert]

Then we will see, won't we Javert. Because if something like half a million people don't die in the UK, then there are going to some very angry people wanting answers in 6 months time. I don't believe it because it is modelled on death rates that by their own admission they do not KNOW are facts.



As for pensions, that is not what I said, and you know it. That is a Javert special of changing what was said to suit your own argument. Those with pensions now will be lucky, even if they do get cut. It is those without pensions, those in rented accommodation and on zero hours contracts who are going to suffer the most Javert.



You can believe what you want, but what we have is modelling based estimates, NOT facts.

Hang on - I haven't said  half a million people are definitely going to die no matter what is done.  I have said that if we did nothing other than issuing some vague comments bout washing hands, and then just carry on as normal, then hundreds of thousands are likely to die both directly as a result from Covid-19, and indirectly when other people with other unrelated serious illnesses can't get into ICU.



Under the current lockdown, if it continues for the amount of time required (to be confirmed based on science), the number of dead will be down around 20,000 or less.



These numbers could change as new data comes in, but I still don't see that as a good cause to say - I'm sure it will all be ok so let's all just go back to normal.



If the lockdown continues as needed, and then "only" 20,000 people die, you are suggesting it will be a big scandal, whereas I am suggesting it will be a big success because several hundred thousand lives will have been saved compared to doing nothing.



Otherwise it's like surviving a car accident whilst wearing a seatbelt, and then claiming that this proves that seatbelts are a waste of money as sure you were in a car accident and you were fine.

[Thomas]

The exit strategy will be determined once the data is solidified and antibody tests are available.  



If I had to guess, I'd say the current lockdown will continue until early June, and at that point they will be in a position to gradually release the lockdown based on a strategy that cannot be determined yet as we don't have the data.



The only other alternative is to simply release the lockdown and go back to "please wash your hands", whereupon the hospitals will be inundated with new cases 3 weeks later.

Many many business wont survive till early june. Basic so called government help , for one small example , in "furlouging " staff to get 80% of wages paid isnt even in place despite being announced the other week , and the "portal" on the hmrc site wont even be up and running to make the initial claim till the end of april , weeks away yet. Thats never mind process the claim and then wait for money.



The uk government are in a difficult place , without doubt  ,but deppity also makes valid points regarding the economy and people finance.



...and sooner or later , for a large part of the uk that isnt reasonalby well off as deppity says , running out of money and food is going to vastly outweigh any health concerns for the majority.

[cromwell]

Ffs have I not already said "I could be wrong"? Have I not already said "it does not mean a deep recession will happen"? Did I imagine writing those things? Ffs they are opinions, which is not the same as stating  "half a million" deaths is a virtual certainty. Where have I said any of my opinions are facts? Show me?



I stated that there are articles in the press to show there are OTHER opinions than  just "we are all going to die" Dad's army clichés about half a million dead (Javerts, before you go into one, not yours) and they at least deserve to be aired. We've had all this before with SARS, with Bird Flu, with CJD, and others. I'm fecked if I'm not going to state my opinion, even if you don't like it.

Why would I go off on one,it's a bloody forum haven't I said I expect people to tell me I'm talking rubbish and vice versa?



Why would I not like you stating your opinion isn't this what this place is for,are you sure you don't like me expressing mine? ::



Nobody is saying half a million deaths are a certainty but they are based on a scientific model,we elected a govt and they are going with that.they and I could be wrong,so could you and your theory and the fallout in either scenario be as bad

[papasmurf]

If I had to guess, I'd say the current lockdown will continue until early June,

I am "locked down" until the end of June as it is, and I expect that to be extended.

[Javert]

Who said carry on as normal? I don't know the answer, anymore than you do. But I do know THIS is not it. We must find a better solution, or there will be no society worth going back to. I don't care if you disagree or don't like that opinion, we cannot shut society down and expect it to still be there in 6 months time. We NEED an exit strategy, and at present there isn't one.

The exit strategy will be determined once the data is solidified and antibody tests are available.  



If I had to guess, I'd say the current lockdown will continue until early June, and at that point they will be in a position to gradually release the lockdown based on a strategy that cannot be determined yet as we don't have the data.



The only other alternative is to simply release the lockdown and go back to "please wash your hands", whereupon the hospitals will be inundated with new cases 3 weeks later.