"We are suffering from a media epidemic"

[papasmurf]

Who from?



Where?



Link?

Posted in this thread a long way back.

[Thomas]

That is an estimate based on a do nothing policy. (In theory it would be much higher than that if 100% of the population caught it.)

Who from?



Where?



Link?



The estimate of a do nothing policy from the imperial college was 250 000 as i wrote in my post above.

[Scott777]

It is you who is in denial, you are sh*t scared of the reality. You have been denying there is a problem from day one.

Incorrect and ignorant.  There are 2 problems:



It's contagious, and reasonable to slow it down (for a while).



There are too many gullible, brainwashed people who will take the media at face value, and ignore everything else.

[papasmurf]

For what its worth deppity , i havent followed the thread all the way back , but im not sure where javert is getting this half a million people dying of covid 19 from?

That is an estimate based on a do nothing policy. (In theory it would be much higher than that if 100% of the population caught it.)

[Thomas]

Then we will see, won't we Javert. Because if something like half a million people don't die in the UK, then there are going to some very angry people wanting answers in 6 months time. I don't believe it because it is modelled on death rates that by their own admission they do not KNOW are facts.



As for pensions, that is not what I said, and you know it. That is a Javert special of changing what was said to suit your own argument. Those with pensions now will be lucky, even if they do get cut. It is those without pensions, those in rented accommodation and on zero hours contracts who are going to suffer the most Javert.



You can believe what you want, but what we have is modelling based estimates, NOT facts.

For what its worth deppity , i havent followed the thread all the way back , but im not sure where javert is getting this half a million people dying of covid 19 from?



Imperial college released a paper last week or so , and from that they adivsed the uk government that  ,without a full on suppression strategy , they ESTIMATE potentially 250 000 people may die of covid 19 , and of that 250 000 , half to two thirds may very well have died of another cause over the course of this year.

[Barry]

You are still in denial. (and getting to be a pain about it.)

It might be an irritant to you, but he is right.

All admissions with any form of respiratory problems are swabbed on the day of arrival. (So stop being a pain, yourself!)

[papasmurf]

I pointless waste of a comment, which I could equally apply to you - in denial that it's mostly media hype and that 'official statistics' can be biased or skewed.

It is you who is in denial, you are shit scared of the reality. You have been denying there is a problem from day one.

[T00ts]

Who said carry on as normal? I don't know the answer, anymore than you do. But I do know THIS is not it. We must find a better solution, or there will be no society worth going back to. I don't care if you disagree or don't like that opinion, we cannot shut society down and expect it to still be there in 6 months time. We NEED an exit strategy, and at present there isn't one.

Yes we do. I think we all realise that but at present the daily deaths seem to be going up. Are we assuming that there is no plan? Do we know what or how the government is trying to see a future? Italy is already talking about their exit and they are several weeks ahead of us although our numbers are looking worse than theirs currently. No doubt governments all over the world are taking hints from how things are going worldwide to see what works. We need to have patience. I can see the vulnerable being shielded until there is a cure or a vaccine but we all know that the treasury cannot provide long term. The Chancellor is already getting itchy feet and the B of E has already said it won't print money.



There are too many young on oxygen to maintain that this is only an elderly disease but the more the oldies can stay out of the way and let the NHS get the younger ones better the more value to the economy.

[Scott777]

You are still in denial. (and getting to be a pain about it.)

I pointless waste of a comment, which I could equally apply to you - in denial that it's mostly media hype and that 'official statistics' can be biased or skewed.

[DeppityDawg]

But according to the scientists who have modelled it, this is not a risk, it's pretty much a certainty, and we can see that from the examples of Italy and Iran - if there was no lockdown and no measures at all, hundreds of thousands will die prematurely.  If you choose not to believe that information, there's nothing else that can be said I guess.  Are you disputing the number of deaths happening in Italy and Iran and they are not happening?  Are you thinking that UK people are somehow genetically superior to Italians?  If not, I'm struggling to see a good reason for not beliveving it.



If you then say, well so be it - better for hundred thousands to die now rather than risk having my pension cut later or whatever, I suppose that's an argument but it's not one I share.

Then we will see, won't we Javert. Because if something like half a million people don't die in the UK, then there are going to some very angry people wanting answers in 6 months time. I don't believe it because it is modelled on death rates that by their own admission they do not KNOW are facts.



As for pensions, that is not what I said, and you know it. That is a Javert special of changing what was said to suit your own argument. Those with pensions now will be lucky, even if they do get cut. It is those without pensions, those in rented accommodation and on zero hours contracts who are going to suffer the most Javert.



You can believe what you want, but what we have is modelling based estimates, NOT facts.

[papasmurf]

.  I don't believe people dying are not being tested for it,

You are still in denial. (and getting to be a pain about it.)

[Scott777]

You also have to keep in mind that the deaths reported are

a) Lagging quite far behind the day the person actually died in some countries including the UK - they cannot report a death or cause of death until a whole process has been followed so some of the deaths, especially ones outside hospitals, may not be reported for days or even weeks later.  The number of deaths reported each day doesn't bear much relation to the actual number of people who really died on the actual day before - it's the number of deaths that were certified the day before.

b) Not necessarily complete - some people are dying where the doctor suspects Covid-19 but the test was negative or there was no test done.  In those cases some of the deaths are put down to "pneumonia".

I disagree on both counts.



a: The lag would be true for every month, unless the figures are updated, which is unlikely.



b: If the test was negative, then it's unlikely they died of it.  I don't believe people dying are not being tested for it, given how seriously hospitals are taking the pandemic.

[DeppityDawg]

So we should ignore what data there is and carry on as if there is nothing happening? Sweden was trying this and are just now realising their mistake and belatedly warning of massive deaths. I am not afraid to die but I am afraid of blind stupidity. This is not an enemy that we can see, this is not an affliction we can cure or control other than to try and slow the rate at which people catch it and let's be honest as things stand we will all catch it at some point. We have no way of knowing who will get it mildly or who will need massive help. We have no way of knowing how, now the genie is out of the bottle, it will affect society as a whole. We have no real control at all. In an effort to preserve society in the long term it has been decided to protect the workforce as much as those who would over stretch the healers.



We will be in massive debt inevitably while some will make a fortune at the expense of others. What proof or evidence is there that by forgetting a lockdown and letting the virus rip through the population it will actually benefit us either economically or socially? Already they are talking mass graves and that's while doing their best to keep infection at a manageable level. This is not just an economic problem it is a worldwide pestilence that the economy cannot survive.

Who said carry on as normal? I don't know the answer, anymore than you do. But I do know THIS is not it. We must find a better solution, or there will be no society worth going back to. I don't care if you disagree or don't like that opinion, we cannot shut society down and expect it to still be there in 6 months time. We NEED an exit strategy, and at present there isn't one.

[Javert]

Apparently, tomorrow, the ONS release the number of deaths in March 2020.  That will be very interesting to compare to 2019 (43946).  Will it be more or less, and by how much?  Anyone for hazarding a guess?  I'm plumping for roughly the same.

You also have to keep in mind that the deaths reported are

a) Lagging quite far behind the day the person actually died in some countries including the UK - they cannot report a death or cause of death until a whole process has been followed so some of the deaths, especially ones outside hospitals, may not be reported for days or even weeks later.  The number of deaths reported each day doesn't bear much relation to the actual number of people who really died on the actual day before - it's the number of deaths that were certified the day before.

b) Not necessarily complete - some people are dying where the doctor suspects Covid-19 but the test was negative or there was no test done.  In those cases some of the deaths are put down to "pneumonia".

[DeppityDawg]

Well to this first



I expect to be included there,and there's a lot of assumptions mostly wrong in my case,I may be logged on here doesn't mean I'm not working and still need to.

And now an assumption from me but based on things you said in the past I would guess your pension future is much better than mine

I have not claimed anything else. I have three pensions, and will probably be ok. But I've earned every single one of them, and when I say with blood sweat and tears I fecking well mean just that.



But I'm not the one supporting the total lockdown of society that will impact the youngest and those with so little the most, and deny them a future as secure as most people posting on here. You weren't singled out or referred to personally. The average age of posters on here is probably 50 plus at least.