Are they trying to start again?

[Javert]

The death rate from Covid-19 in the UK is already tracking what Italy was doing.



Given that people who die from Covid-19, on average, die about 23 days and even sometimes 30 days after infection, it's probable we have not even nearly reached the peak of deaths.



Typically it takes about 6 days from when you are infected to when you show symptoms.

Then another 5-6 days before you are admitted to hospital.

Then probably another 5 days or so before you are admitted to ICU.

Then up to 14 days or even more before you die if you don't pull through.

Then another 3-4 days before you death is actually registered and in the numbers.

Not to mention, the deaths outside hospital attributed to Covid-19 do not include people who die in the community e.g. in care homes or even at home.



None of these numbers can be changed by anybody except for maybe the speed of registration of the deaths.



That means that people will be still dying who were infected pre-lockdown almost a month after the main lockdown was introduced on 23rd March.  So, it's entirely probable, even likely, that the death rate will continue to increase until around 23rd-24th April, and by then it will probably be about 4000 people per day, and at that point it will level off and start coming down again.  They will be lucky to stay within the 20,000 number that the CMO said would be "success" even by 23rd April or so.  



It may not be this bad if the impact of the measures that were already introduced before 23rd March is quite large, but I can pretty much guarantee that the rate will continue to increase until around 23rd April or so.  But then again, by the time they add in the out of hospital deaths, I believe we will already be above 20,000 by later in April.



The rate of hospital admissions should already be levelling off and we are already starting to see that in the charts.

[T00ts]

Toots, I've been told on here that I'm "putting money above peoples lives", that I would "take away all safety measures" and that I simply "don't care" about people. None of this is true. I've been saying what Morgan is saying now for the last fortnight, and I've been unpopular for doing so. Only time will tell now if they have managed to get it right, but whatever the outcome, its too late to change the decisions that have been made, and in so many cases the damage has already been done.



I've said all along that many, many more will suffer greatly as a result of the "cure" than by the disease itself, and I've no wish to be proved right, but I know in my heart I will be. But each day the evidence that the world is now looking over a precipice is becoming more and more glaring.

TBH I got the impression that your heart was more in the economy and for that I apologise. There was some confusion over regarding this virus as nothing more than a sniffle or standard flu which I think we can all agree it really isn't. I do wonder if the fear of what was coming hasn't hogtied us to a hope that somehow we can beat it and of course for those of us with family members who might come off worse in a fight with it, it was a hope to hang on to in the midst of so much confusion.

I am particularly concerned for a daughter and her son, so it makes sense to have sufficient health care available so that more can survive. Sadly it seems even the current care is at best a hope rather than a certainty.  I understand the need to slow the rate that people arrive at hospital just so they all get the best chance. Sadly even that hasn't been managed. The sheer numbers and speed of need would be beyond even the best of health organisations. Yet add to that the criminal lack of protection equipment supplied for those trying to save as many as possible and it seems to me that there are some who should feel utmost shame for the lack of vision and preparation.



Having made those decisions for right or wrong, we are now in a place that I cannot see the way out, but then I am not in a position to make that judgement either. This is where it becomes more difficult. We either stick together now and follow through whichever way is felt to be the best or we break out ending up as headless chickens. For my money I don't think we have a choice.

[DeppityDawg]

Hi DD - I have to agree with you. For a while there so much of what was told to us seemed like sense, but the last few days it has begun to unravel. I really don't go a bundle on Morgan most of the time but this time he has a point. I am not so sure it's the Government's response which is totally lacking. I keep repeating myself in various threads but I still go back to the discomfort of the NHS, Health England bosses when they squirmed in front of the Health Select Committee just a few weeks ago. They were so obviously lying/playing for time/uncomfortable/ill prepared then and it has shown all the way through.

At the same time being led by the science while believable at the beginning has boxed us into a corner. We slipped up big time when we stopped testing and only counted the hospital admissions and now I can't see a way out without a lot more deaths. We were led to believe that this would protect the nation, but now we could be due to lose out in all directions. I don't think we can take the virus as inconsequential but I can't help but feel that we are being used as Guinea pigs to prove - or otherwise - some scientist's theory on herd immunity.

The Government's failing in this has been to be led by the science to a place where common sense got lost, but then I am not sure that common sense is a commodity readily available in Westminster. Hind sight is a great thing but my feeling is that we have constantly been running behind this virus acting too late and inefficiently every time. Until someone comes up with a vaccine.......that's my prayer for today.

Toots, I've been told on here that I'm "putting money above peoples lives", that I would "take away all safety measures" and that I simply "don't care" about people. None of this is true. I've been saying what Morgan is saying now for the last fortnight, and I've been unpopular for doing so. Only time will tell now if they have managed to get it right, but whatever the outcome, its too late to change the decisions that have been made, and in so many cases the damage has already been done.



I've said all along that many, many more will suffer greatly as a result of the "cure" than by the disease itself, and I've no wish to be proved right, but I know in my heart I will be. But each day the evidence that the world is now looking over a precipice is becoming more and more glaring.

[Thomas]

Thanks Thomas. It says what I think we've both been saying for the last fortnight. Tbf this is a once in a lifetime event, and I think people have their attention focused elsewhere for obvious reason. But most simply do not have the slightest idea yet of the disaster that's going to descend on us in the next 6 months.



Figures starting to come out that a staggering 17 million Americans registered as unemployed in the last 3 weeks alone    Theres simply no precedent for this.

unbelievable , the amount of yanks being put on the dole. The knock on effect when the yanks go tits up for the rest of us is going to be massive.



Trying to remain optimistic , but as i have said , and others like yerself , the sting in the tail of this whole covid 19 malarkey is going to be the economic side of things.



Dont know about you , on a personal level ,   i have very little cash coming in now after three weeks of lockdown , but all the direct debits are still coming out of my accounts thick and fast as though nothing has happened.

[DeppityDawg]

Good article here on the world economy deppity. Also points out petrol sales across europe have fallen by 88%.



https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/unemployment-coronavirus-pandemic-normal-economy-is-never-coming-back/">https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/un ... ming-back/">https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/unemployment-coronavirus-pandemic-normal-economy-is-never-coming-back/

Thanks Thomas. It says what I think we've both been saying for the last fortnight. Tbf this is a once in a lifetime event, and I think people have their attention focused elsewhere for obvious reason. But most simply do not have the slightest idea yet of the disaster that's going to descend on us in the next 6 months.



Figures starting to come out that a staggering 17 million Americans registered as unemployed in the last 3 weeks alone    Theres simply no precedent for this.

[T00ts]

I'm not overly fond of Piers Morgan, but he has it nailed in the DM this morning



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8204277/PIERS-MORGAN-wish-Boris-Johnson-Britains-coronavirus-strategy-disaster.html">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... aster.html">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8204277/PIERS-MORGAN-wish-Boris-Johnson-Britains-coronavirus-strategy-disaster.html



Not like others haven't saying or thinking the same things. Tbh, the Governments whole response to coronavirus has been a total shambles.

Hi DD - I have to agree with you. For a while there so much of what was told to us seemed like sense, but the last few days it has begun to unravel. I really don't go a bundle on Morgan most of the time but this time he has a point. I am not so sure it's the Government's response which is totally lacking. I keep repeating myself in various threads but I still go back to the discomfort of the NHS, Health England bosses when they squirmed in front of the Health Select Committee just a few weeks ago. They were so obviously lying/playing for time/uncomfortable/ill prepared then and it has shown all the way through.

At the same time being led by the science while believable at the beginning has boxed us into a corner. We slipped up big time when we stopped testing and only counted the hospital admissions and now I can't see a way out without a lot more deaths. We were led to believe that this would protect the nation, but now we could be due to lose out in all directions. I don't think we can take the virus as inconsequential but I can't help but feel that we are being used as Guinea pigs to prove - or otherwise - some scientist's theory on herd immunity.

The Government's failing in this has been to be led by the science to a place where common sense got lost, but then I am not sure that common sense is a commodity readily available in Westminster. Hind sight is a great thing but my feeling is that we have constantly been running behind this virus acting too late and inefficiently every time. Until someone comes up with a vaccine.......that's my prayer for today.

[Thomas]

I'm not overly fond of Piers Morgan, but he has it nailed in the DM this morning



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8204277/PIERS-MORGAN-wish-Boris-Johnson-Britains-coronavirus-strategy-disaster.html">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... aster.html">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8204277/PIERS-MORGAN-wish-Boris-Johnson-Britains-coronavirus-strategy-disaster.html



Not like others haven't saying or thinking the same things. Tbh, the Governments whole response to coronavirus has been a total shambles.

Good article here on the world economy deppity. Also points out petrol sales across europe have fallen by 88%.

The Normal Economy Is Never Coming Back

The latest U.S. data proves the world is in its steepest freefall ever—and the old economic and political playbooks don't apply.



Thursday's news confirms that the Western economies face a far deeper and more savage economic shock than they have ever previously experienced. Regular business cycles generally start with the more volatile sectors of the economy—real estate and construction, for instance, or heavy engineering that depends on business investment—or sectors that are subject to global competition, such as the motor vehicles industry. In total, those sectors employ less than a quarter of the workforce. The concentrated downturn in those sectors transmits to the rest of the economy as a muffled shock.



The coronavirus lockdown directly affects services—retail, real estate, education, entertainment, restaurants—where 80 percent of Americans work today. Thus the result is immediate and catastrophic. In sectors like retail, which has recently come under fierce pressure from online competition, the temporary lockdown may prove to be terminal. In many cases, the stores that shut down in early March will not reopen. The jobs will be permanently lost. Millions of Americans and their families are facing catastrophe.



The shock is not confined to the United States. Many European economies cushion the effects of a downturn by subsidizing short-time working. This will moderate the surge in unemployment. But the collapse in economic activity cannot be disguised. The north of Italy is not just a luxurious tourist destination. It accounts for 50 percent of Italian GDP. Germany's GDP is predicted to fall by more than that of the United States, dragged down by its dependence on exports. The latest set of forecasts from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are apocalyptic across the board. Hardest hit of all may be Japan, even though the virus has had a moderate impact there.

[/b]

The longer we sustain the lockdown, the deeper the scarring to the economy and the slower the recovery. In China, regular economic activity is inching back. But given the risk of second- and third-wave outbreaks, no one has any idea how far and fast the resumption of normal life can safely go. It seems likely, barring a dramatic medical breakthrough, that movement restrictions will need to stay in place to manage the unevenness of containment. A protracted and halting recovery seems far more likely at this point than a vigorous V-shaped bounce back.

[/b]



https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/unemployment-coronavirus-pandemic-normal-economy-is-never-coming-back/">https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/un ... ming-back/">https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/09/unemployment-coronavirus-pandemic-normal-economy-is-never-coming-back/

[DeppityDawg]

I'm not overly fond of Piers Morgan, but he has it nailed in the DM this morning



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8204277/PIERS-MORGAN-wish-Boris-Johnson-Britains-coronavirus-strategy-disaster.html">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... aster.html">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8204277/PIERS-MORGAN-wish-Boris-Johnson-Britains-coronavirus-strategy-disaster.html



Not like others haven't saying or thinking the same things. Tbh, the Governments whole response to coronavirus has been a total shambles.

[Scott777]

I think you might over blowing it. As I understand it it is temporary legislation to be reviewed at 6 monthly periods. Plod can't decide alone if you are infected and must ask a health official.

My mistake, not a plod, but any individual public health officer:



If a public health officer has reasonable grounds to suspect that a person in England is potentially infectious, they can direct the person to go immediately to a place which is suitable for screening and assessment.



The point being - everyone is "potentially infectious."



And who knows what they will do at the review?

[T00ts]

MPs aren't fundamentally different - they all get tempted by money and power, which often comes from corporations.  Here's some food for thought:



Coronavirus Act 2020 - A copper has the power to order you to attend an assessment centre, where you can be held for up to 48 hours.  They only need to think you MIGHT be infected, but anyone MIGHT be infected.

I think you might over blowing it. As I understand it it is temporary legislation to be reviewed at 6 monthly periods. Plod can't decide alone if you are infected and must ask a health official. These are extraordinary times and require extraordinary legislation. Joe Public has been given the opportunity to act for the good of all and too many have blown it on the assumption it will not affect them or it's just the sniffles.

[Scott777]

Noooooo! This is the UK they would never get away with it, and wouldn't even go there. This is a Conservative Government not Corbyn city!!

MPs aren't fundamentally different - they all get tempted by money and power, which often comes from corporations.  Here's some food for thought:



Coronavirus Act 2020 - A copper has the power to order you to attend an assessment centre, where you can be held for up to 48 hours.  They only need to think you MIGHT be infected, but anyone MIGHT be infected.

[johnofgwent]

Face it, most professional freelance/contract/self employed opted for self employment to reduce their tax payments and cut down on National Insurance Contributions.

I don't want anyone to suffer through Covid-19. But it seems cheeky, at least, for those, who decided not to join in with the rest and pay their fair share towards the welfare and benefit system over the years, to once again want to get away with not paying their wack...

I'm curious to know if you've been self employed or run your own close company...

[Javert]

The problem with tracing contacts is that these include strangers who happened to be standing near you on a tube train during rush-hour, someone who sat at the table you'd vacated at a motorway service area or someone who used a supermarket shopping trolley five minutes after you'd finished with it.

Yes.  Someone was arguing with me that Covid-19 can have an incubation period of up to 28 days based on some random story from some country.



I pointed out that all the scientific studies have found that any incubation period > 11 days is already an outlier.



I also pointed out that maybe the person was having an illicit affair and caught it from their lover - they are not going to tell the truth to the contract tracing folks there.

[patman post]

The self employed will find the case law that makes them in business on their own account rescinded soans to tax them as the employed.

Face it, most professional freelance/contract/self employed opted for self employment to reduce their tax payments and cut down on National Insurance Contributions.

I don't want anyone to suffer through Covid-19. But it seems cheeky, at least, for those, who decided not to join in with the rest and pay their fair share towards the welfare and benefit system over the years, to once again want to get away with not paying their wack...

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

. . .I feel they have badly misunderstood the necessity for testing everyone and tracing contacts . . .

The problem with tracing contacts is that these include strangers who happened to be standing near you on a tube train during rush-hour, someone who sat at the table you'd vacated at a motorway service area or someone who used a supermarket shopping trolley five minutes after you'd finished with it.