Brexit to still go ahead despite coronavirus.

[Nick]

Can you link us the forecasts you have seen that claim that the UK will only shrink 5% and all other EU economies by 30% or whatever you said earlier?



Also, I'd be interested in a wager on that.  I'm willing to bet the UK will shrink a lot more than 5% this year.  Maybe I'll find out what the odds are on that but I doubt I'll get good odds on it as it's pretty much a certainty.



Sounds like wishful thinking to me - it's based in the same exceptionalism that leads UK leaders to think that us hardy brits know better than anyone else and we can just use herd immunity against a virus.

First off, nowhere did I say the EU economy would shrink by 30%. I said around 9%, which is worse than the UK at 5.5%



It was on a news program so no I don't have a link but I found this.



https://www.economist.com/img/b/1280/1276/85/sites/default/files/images/print-edition/20200404_FNC087.png">



As you can see it shows the EU predicted to be worse than us. So again, why would we want to be shackled to them?

[Thomas]

Also, I'd be interested in a wager on that.  I'm willing to bet the UK will shrink a lot more than 5% this year.  Maybe I'll find out what the odds are on that but I doubt I'll get good odds on it as it's pretty much a certainty.

Coronavirus: the economic legacy of lockdown

The fallout from our disastrous Covid-19 policy could tip us into the worst depression since the 1930s

[/b]

The OBR estimates that the UK's public sector net borrowing will be £273bn this year — 14% of GDP — taking total public debt above 100% of GDP. The Bank of England is directly financing some of that borrowing by expanding the government's "ways and means facility", the government's overdraft at the bank.

[/b]



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-the-economic-legacy-of-lockdown-20xxt0pg2?shareToken=633fe80fea361fdf0a86bb1cbc7be13b">https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coro ... 1cbc7be13b">https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-the-economic-legacy-of-lockdown-20xxt0pg2?shareToken=633fe80fea361fdf0a86bb1cbc7be13b





Another article this morning contrasting the unfolding economic pain against the health crises , and arguing for a middle road through.



I dont disagree with your assessment above javert , and im sure auld borchester will be along any minute to do his usual rubbishing of so called economic experts.



England , im told , is all out of listening to experts.



Be that as it may , it would need to take some kind of special delusion and head in the sand denial to think the uk economy isnt going to get absolutely battered.

[Thomas]

Can you link us the forecasts you have seen that claim that the UK will only shrink 5% and all other EU economies by 30% or whatever you said earlier?



Also, I'd be interested in a wager on that.  I'm willing to bet the UK will shrink a lot more than 5% this year.  Maybe I'll find out what the odds are on that but I doubt I'll get good odds on it as it's pretty much a certainty.



Sounds like wishful thinking to me - it's based in the same exceptionalism that leads UK leaders to think that us hardy brits know better than anyone else and we can just use herd immunity against a virus.

To be fair javert , it looks like you might see a chink of light on the horizon from your political perspective.



As each day passes the johnson tory government appears to be in chaos , and coming under increasing fire from all sides. The man himself is posted as missing in action , and seems to be reverting to the mere miserable starved caricature we were told about before his impending coronation of a clueless buffoon who is extremely lazy.

[Javert]

The EU economies are going to drop like a set of car keys, why would we want to be attached to them?

Can you link us the forecasts you have seen that claim that the UK will only shrink 5% and all other EU economies by 30% or whatever you said earlier?



Also, I'd be interested in a wager on that.  I'm willing to bet the UK will shrink a lot more than 5% this year.  Maybe I'll find out what the odds are on that but I doubt I'll get good odds on it as it's pretty much a certainty.



Sounds like wishful thinking to me - it's based in the same exceptionalism that leads UK leaders to think that us hardy brits know better than anyone else and we can just use herd immunity against a virus.

[Thomas]

Actually Thomas - I shouldn't really have responded in the manner that I did, because we have already left the EU!!

 ::



Nice try stevlin , but if you think the world is going to believe taking a few meps out of brussells and lowering the eu flag is the yookay out the eu , while you continue to take eu rules and pay the eu its money , you are more deluded than even i thought.



If that  was what brexit actually meant to you , you could have said this years ago and saved all the hassle. The eu would have been more than happy to end your representation while you continued to be a bill payer rule taker.



Its going to take some amount of spin for you tory brexiting brit nats to get yourself out of that brexit hole you have dug yourself into if the tories renege on brexit this year yet again.



They will be laughing from the villages in the amazon to the streets of hong kong. No one will take you serious ever again.



Your reputation will be lower than a snakes belly.



England threatening to leave will become a euphemism for bottle merchants making empty threats.

[Thomas]

Actually Thomas, it is OUR government that is ridiculously continuing to pay that political entity anything.

Not my government . You can try and hold us captive but you cant make us one of you.

albeit, if it was left to the likes of yourself, and most members of both the elected, and unelected parliamentarians, that continual waste of UK money would carry on indefinitely.

I would suggest you go back to sleep now, politics in general, and the pros and cons of Brexit are clearly beyond your Ken.... It remains to be seen whether or not we actually leave on the current proscribed date.....after all, agreeing a post Brexit trade deal is desirable, but not mandatory. Leaving, and subsequently trading on WTO terms has ALWAYS been the natural outcome if an agreement couldn't be struck...It isn't the end of the world as many like yourself would have us believe.

That situation may also assist in reaching a mutually beneficial trade deal sooner rather than later too.....as it could prevent an extensive negotiation period being taken to reach an amicable trade agreement....and whilst that was going on, the UK could of course negotiate and agree trade agreements with non-EU countries in parallel.....unlike the current situation which is interminably dragging on - and costing us a fortune as even you seem to have realised!!

Yawn double yawn . Is this story finished yet stevlin?



You have been spinning this yarn now for over four years , and we have done it all to death.



The fact remains though despite the tories being in power for ten years now , and the brexit vote 2 months short of 4 years ago and still counting , you still continue to pay vast amounts of money to the eu and follow all their rules more or less.



Once you have an update on the situation stevlin , let me know.

[Thomas]

yeah you'll be needing it to come south of gretna, assuming wee jimmie krankies twin sister lifts the moratorium on living

No we wont john. We will be by passing you completely.



I dont have much hope though john of you keeping foreigners out once you end freedom of movement and the CTA , when you cant even stop coronavirus and millions of people flying in unchecked on a daily basis at your airports.

[johnofgwent]

Brilliant barry! . You mean im getting to keep my european union passport? :thup:

yeah you'll be needing it to come south of gretna, assuming wee jimmie krankies twin sister lifts the moratorium on living

[Nick]

The EU economies are going to drop like a set of car keys, why would we want to be attached to them?

[Stevlin]

Actually Thomas - I shouldn't really have responded in the manner that I did, because we have already left the EU!! Yeah, I know, that is 'factual', but not yet truly implemented, because to facilitate implementation of the required practical changes introduced by the new found 'independence' naturally requires a period of adjustment, so we have entered a 'transitional' period to accommodate that.  Clearly, even the length of the transitional period could be extended, and there will undoubtedly be pressure exerted from various quarters to do just that - but irrespective of whether or not the the TRUE/ACTUAL Brexit is truly accomplished at the end of the current transitional period, or further extensions agreed....we are now OUT of the EU.... Article 50 HAS been activated.......

[Stevlin]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. aye stevlin several times now over the course of many years , yet you remain completely silent over the fact we are now in april of 2020 , four years on from the brexit ref and your government is still paying the eu a very large fee every month.

Actually Thomas, it is OUR government that is ridiculously continuing to pay that political entity anything.....albeit, if it was left to the likes of yourself, and most members of  both the elected, and unelected parliamentarians, that continual waste of UK money would carry on indefinitely.

I would suggest you go back to sleep now, politics in general, and the pros and cons of Brexit are clearly beyond your Ken....  It remains to be seen whether or not we actually leave on the current proscribed date.....after all, agreeing a post Brexit trade deal is desirable, but not mandatory. Leaving, and subsequently trading on WTO terms has ALWAYS been the natural outcome if an agreement couldn't be struck...It isn't the end of the world as many like yourself would have us believe.

That situation may also assist in reaching a mutually beneficial trade deal sooner rather than later too.....as it could prevent an extensive negotiation period being taken to reach an amicable trade agreement....and whilst that was going on, the UK could of course negotiate and  agree trade agreements with non-EU countries in parallel.....unlike the current situation which is interminably dragging on - and costing us a fortune as even you seem to have realised!!

[Thomas]

15 mm pipebender actually Tommy, or maybe a litre bottle of Irn Bru. Call me Mr Old Fashioned if you will, but I like to stick with what I know.

 ::



Have you tasted that new low sugar irn bru recipe? It tastes like shite borkie. A good claw hammer can be usefull as well.

The general feeling is that Boris is a lying toerag but we like him because he has promised to get the UK out of the EU. If he stars fart arsing about with the withdrawal dates then we will stop liking him and find someone else

Thats what i keep saying to you borkie. Such is the dire straits of english politics , and its been long in the making , all he has to do is point out labour are worse than he is and  1 in 5 will vote for him again , provided he honours brexit.

[Borchester]

I think even auld borkie would be out on the streets with his baseball bat in that scenario. 8-)

15 mm pipebender actually Tommy, or maybe a litre bottle of Irn Bru. Call me Mr Old Fashioned if you will, but I like to stick with what I know.



The general feeling is that Boris is a lying toerag but we like him because he has promised to get the UK out of the EU. If he stars fart arsing about with the withdrawal dates then we will stop liking him and find someone else. Personally I think that the fuss over this flu will be over in a month and then he will be looking for something else to win the hearts and minds of Middle England. Bombing Brussels might be a good start.

[Thomas]

The EU will consider an extension request upto June 30th. My understanding is johnson implemented law to prevent the UK govt seeking any further extensions. For a  extension to be requested johnson would need to pass/change the law he only very recently introduced. He would have to ask his boss (cummings) what he should do but sound bites so far would suggest a request wont be sent. Most likely at this stage the UK will trade globally on WTO in January.

Why the uk didnt participate in the eu PPE programme is beyond me, but will the UK avail of the EU 500B slush fund, I think they can as "EU" members.

I stand corrected , so you have ten weeks to kick the can down the road further ? Doable but highly unlikely.



I think even auld borkie would be out on the streets with his baseball bat in that scenario. 8-)

[Javert]

The EU will consider an extension request upto June 30th. My understanding is johnson implemented law to prevent the UK govt seeking any further extensions. For a  extension to be requested johnson would need to pass/change the law he only very recently introduced. He would have to ask his boss (cummings) what he should do but sound bites so far would suggest a request wont be sent. Most likely at this stage the UK will trade globally on WTO in January.

Why the uk didnt participate in the eu PPE programme is beyond me, but will the UK avail of the EU 500B slush fund, I think they can as "EU" members.

I wouldn't bet on it - currently they are playing political hard ball which is probably what was planned from the beginning, and Johnson is too busy with other things to intervene and knows this can wait.



Further, passing laws to prevent the government itself from doing something in future is a political act that can be reversed, and there is no fundamental reason the EU could not accept a transition extension request after June 30th by simply agreeing on a new rule or change as far as I'm aware.



You may be right, but I wouldn't bet the house on it right now.