Brexit to still go ahead despite coronavirus.

[GerryT]

You do realise the UK is the 4th largest car importer in the world?



The reason I don't acknowledge your points is because they are all based on estimates and what if's, give some facts not made up stuff.



The EU are getting twitchy and know that Brexit is going to sting if they don't get a deal either.

Is there a point to being the 4th largest importer ? look at it this way. The EU made 14.6m cars in 2018 with 1.8m exported to the UK. The UK in 2018 made 1.5m cars and exported 1.2m, if I were you I'd be worried about the UK domestic car industry if Johnson doesn't get a FTA with the EU. The impact on the UK manufacturing sector is going to be far worse. While the EU will be introducing tariffs on UK exports, the UK might not do the same so, we'll see. https://www.acea.be/statistics/article/motor-vehicle-trade-between-the-uk-and-main-eu-partners">https://www.acea.be/statistics/article/ ... u-partners">https://www.acea.be/statistics/article/motor-vehicle-trade-between-the-uk-and-main-eu-partners.



You choose to ignore the facts, I showed you plenty. The UK GDP is well behind G7 where it would typically be strong in that group. Reports from Bloomberg which you like to Ignore and the Guardian coming up with similar numbers. Thousands of job losses, and this is all before you leave the shelter of the EU. Lets hope Johnson's team can get his finger out and show up at some meetings.



Of course the EU are twitchy, brexit hurts both the UK and EU. It's only brexiteers that seem to think it will lead to the sunny lands of great fortune. I presume your referring to Barnier's recent comments or more his frustration at deal with the likes of Gove & co and not being able to get him to progress anything, with just over 9 weeks to go it's very unlikely the UK will request an extension and that leaves a very short time to get a deal negotiated. Considering Gove shows up looking to agree multiple different deals across different trade sectors doesn't bode very well considering the UK knows the only deal  the EU will agree is a single deal.

[Nick]

You're not taking the points I make. The EU struck a deal with Japan that greatly affects the UK. If the UK were staying they could have influenced the deal to say keep car tariffs or quotas, thus protecting the UK car industry. The EU does this all the time for member countries that will be overly disadvantaged in a new trade deal. So by brexiting the UK has led to a situation where Honda might pull the plug totally.

Theres many on here that accuse the EU of being a protectionist club, remember the talk about cheaper oranges, well the EU is protecting that eu industry  so yes they do protect their members, that's a good thing.

Why pull out of the UK, they could just as easily make electric cars there, but where will the raw material for these cars come from ? If not 100% in the UK then there's tariffs, too much uncertainty. "Take back control" isn't much help to industry. Or maybe johnsons famous quote "fu#k business" is an indication of where the UK post brexit is heading, more uncertainty for business. All brexit related.

Do you believe every press release from a car company or any company. Do you think any of them will say "the UK decision to brexit is a demonstration of self harm, their govt are a shambles and leader is a liar" how do you think that would affect their car sales. They will spin the situation in a damage limiting way.

Future EU deals will continue to protect its members, the UK wont be considered there either.

You do realise the UK is the 4th largest car importer in the world?



The reason I don't acknowledge your points is because they are all based on estimates and what if's, give some facts not made up stuff.



The EU are getting twitchy and know that Brexit is going to sting if they don't get a deal either.

[Barry]

Has anyone seen this?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/brexit-transition-period-extension-barnier-113347045.html">Brexit: Michel Barnier launches blistering attack on UK over major 'problems' in negotiations



I did have a little titter reading it. Obviously Barnier is stamping his feet because the French can't get their own way over their non-existent fishing rights.

[GerryT]

Gerry, I'm not doing this any more. You're incapable of posting anything that supports your posts.



"Honda is also reacting after the EU and Japan struck a trade deal removing car export tariffs for both, meaning there is little need to base manufacturing in the EU."



No point building cars in the EU as they can just ship them in tariff free. So the UK not being in the EU doesn't make a difference. They still aren't going to manufacture in the EU.





Honda said the closure is not Brexit-driven but 'is part of Honda's broader global strategy in response to changes to the automotive industry,' including moving towards electric vehicles.



Electric vehicles Gerry, not Brexit.

You're not taking the points I make. The EU struck a deal with Japan that greatly affects the UK. If the UK were staying they could have influenced the deal to say keep car tariffs or quotas, thus protecting the UK car industry. The EU does this all the time for member countries that will be overly disadvantaged in a new trade deal. So by brexiting the UK has led to a situation where Honda might pull the plug totally.

Theres many on here that accuse the EU of being a protectionist club, remember the talk about cheaper oranges, well the EU is protecting that eu industry  so yes they do protect their members, that's a good thing.

Why pull out of the UK, they could just as easily make electric cars there, but where will the raw material for these cars come from ? If not 100% in the UK then there's tariffs, too much uncertainty. "Take back control" isn't much help to industry. Or maybe johnsons famous quote "fu#k business" is an indication of where the UK post brexit is heading, more uncertainty for business. All brexit related.

Do you believe every press release from a car company or any company. Do you think any of them will say "the UK decision to brexit is a demonstration of self harm, their govt are a shambles and leader is a liar" how do you think that would affect their car sales. They will spin the situation in a damage limiting way.

Future EU deals will continue to protect its members, the UK wont be considered there either.

[Nick]

Nick you just don't want to admit the reality. Honda want to sell into the EU and can do that now from manufacturing at home. Maybe if the UK hadn't left it could have influenced the Japan deal and help protect it's car manufacturing industry. EU Trade deals are riddled with countries having their markets protected. So yes Brexit is at the heart of this.



"Honda is also reacting after the EU and Japan struck a trade deal removing car export tariffs for both, meaning there is little need to base manufacturing in the EU."



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7023797/Honda-confirms-closure-UK-car-plant-employs-3-500.html">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... 3-500.html">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7023797/Honda-confirms-closure-UK-car-plant-employs-3-500.html



But the point I made wasn't about jobs it was about the 130b loss in the UK economy. That loss has a ripple affect downwards, and brexit hasn't even happened in truth, not until the UK leaves the umbrella and the FTA's will the UK see the true nature. Everything will get blamed on CV19 now, Johnson is going to do the emperors clothes and declare Brexit a resounding success, just wait for the bullsh1t.

Gerry, I'm not doing this any more. You're incapable of posting anything that supports your posts.



"Honda is also reacting after the EU and Japan struck a trade deal removing car export tariffs for both, meaning there is little need to base manufacturing in the EU."



No point building cars in the EU as they can just ship them in tariff free. So the UK not being in the EU doesn't make a difference. They still aren't going to manufacture in the EU.





Honda said the closure is not Brexit-driven but 'is part of Honda's broader global strategy in response to changes to the automotive industry,' including moving towards electric vehicles.



Electric vehicles Gerry, not Brexit.

[GerryT]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hondas-europe-boss-says-closure-of-swindon-plant-is-not-due-to-brexit-a4070366.html">https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hond ... 70366.html">https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hondas-europe-boss-says-closure-of-swindon-plant-is-not-due-to-brexit-a4070366.html



Another statement you didn't fact check.

Nick you just don't want to admit the reality. Honda want to sell into the EU and can do that now from manufacturing at home. Maybe if the UK hadn't left it could have influenced the Japan deal and help protect it's car manufacturing industry. EU Trade deals are riddled with countries having their markets protected. So yes Brexit is at the heart of this.



"Honda is also reacting after the EU and Japan struck a trade deal removing car export tariffs for both, meaning there is little need to base manufacturing in the EU."



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7023797/Honda-confirms-closure-UK-car-plant-employs-3-500.html">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... 3-500.html">https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7023797/Honda-confirms-closure-UK-car-plant-employs-3-500.html



But the point I made wasn't about jobs it was about the 130b loss in the UK economy. That loss has a ripple affect downwards, and brexit hasn't even happened in truth, not until the UK leaves the umbrella and the FTA's will the UK see the true nature. Everything will get blamed on CV19 now, Johnson is going to do the emperors clothes and declare Brexit a resounding success, just wait for the bullsh1t.

[Nick]

It said that at the top of the article, read further and it states what I quoted from the article you posted. They go from 3 to 2 shifts, with less people, making less cars I think that's pretty obvious.

Just read this, it explains a lot and does indicate the future post a hard brexit. Not the end of the world as the UK can get into new industries but manufacturing won't be a main sector and definitely not Car's or Hoovers either ! This article does explain Nissan/JLR and others.



https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2020/01/brexit-isn-t-done-what-next-uk-s-car-industry">https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/b ... r-industry">https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2020/01/brexit-isn-t-done-what-next-uk-s-car-industry



Fake news I hear you cry

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hondas-europe-boss-says-closure-of-swindon-plant-is-not-due-to-brexit-a4070366.html">https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hond ... 70366.html">https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hondas-europe-boss-says-closure-of-swindon-plant-is-not-due-to-brexit-a4070366.html



Another statement you didn't fact check.

[GerryT]

So your cast iron statement about businesses laying people off due to Brexit is now just a sniff.



JLR clearly stated the 500 redundancies were due to changes in shift patterns and that volume was increasing.

It said that at the top of the article, read further and it states what I quoted from the article you posted. They go from 3 to 2 shifts, with less people, making less cars I think that's pretty obvious.

Just read this, it explains a lot and does indicate the future post a hard brexit. Not the end of the world as the UK can get into new industries but manufacturing won't be a main sector and definitely not Car's or Hoovers either ! This article does explain Nissan/JLR and others.



https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2020/01/brexit-isn-t-done-what-next-uk-s-car-industry">https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/b ... r-industry">https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2020/01/brexit-isn-t-done-what-next-uk-s-car-industry



Fake news I hear you cry

[Nick]

Read it Nick Feb 2019, you need to add another yr's loss taking it from 80 to 120-130. AT least your acknowledging that the UK has lost 130b, accepting what the bank of England are saying.

And I knew you would do exactly what you did, drag to point I made about the UK economy onto job losses knowing that no research is out there with hard facts. How could anyone say exactly why a business goes under.



JLR from the link you provided:

"The union said it understood the redundancies were a result of ongoing economic uncertainty, with slower than forecast rates of growth for the Evoque and Discovery Sport models produced at the factory."

"Until the government ensures there is long-term frictionless trade and no tariffs with the European Union, the UK's car industry will continue to experience severe challenges."

YOu say I need to read what I post. those two quotes just smell of Brexit to me.

Again from the article you link for the hamburger co.

"Analysts have blamed economic and political uncertainty for consumers' reluctance to spend money at premium chains, and said diners had switched to cheaper options at coffee shops and cafes."

Again smells of brexit.



While your swallowing that info whats your thoughts on Nissan, you were hailing that as a great brexit success. Google it and read again what I linked, it could very well be another causality of brexit, it's half way there as it is.

So your cast iron statement about businesses laying people off due to Brexit is now just a sniff.



JLR clearly stated the 500 redundancies were due to changes in shift patterns and that volume was increasing.

[GerryT]

JLR, 500 job losses because of Brexit, really? Funny how the company never even mentioned Brexit to its workers as it announced the cuts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-51207324">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... e-51207324">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-51207324



Hand Made Burger Company. 2nd time they have gone into administration and also didn't mention Brexit as the cause.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/23/handmade-burger-co-in-administration-with-loss-of-283-jobs">https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... f-283-jobs">https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/23/handmade-burger-co-in-administration-with-loss-of-283-jobs



First 2 decent sized businesses on the list and it's fake news. Do you not research things before you quote them as gospel Gerry? I think you should start as it's all drivel.



As for the Brexit crash, your first report said 130 billion, this one is stating 80 billion and all its doing is guessing.



Come back with facts Gerry, not these stories.

Read it Nick Feb 2019, you need to add another yr's loss taking it from 80 to 120-130. AT least your acknowledging that the UK has lost 130b, accepting what the bank of England are saying.

And I knew you would do exactly what you did, drag to point I made about the UK economy onto job losses knowing that no research is out there with hard facts. How could anyone say exactly why a business goes under.



JLR from the link you provided:

"The union said it understood the redundancies were a result of ongoing economic uncertainty, with slower than forecast rates of growth for the Evoque and Discovery Sport models produced at the factory."

"Until the government ensures there is long-term frictionless trade and no tariffs with the European Union, the UK's car industry will continue to experience severe challenges."

YOu say I need to read what I post. those two quotes just smell of Brexit to me.

Again from the article you link for the hamburger co.

"Analysts have blamed economic and political uncertainty for consumers' reluctance to spend money at premium chains, and said diners had switched to cheaper options at coffee shops and cafes."

Again smells of brexit.



While your swallowing that info whats your thoughts on Nissan, you were hailing that as a great brexit success. Google it and read again what I linked, it could very well be another causality of brexit, it's half way there as it is.

[Nick]

I did show you but you don't want to believe it. Here's a list of jobs lost but you won't believe that either, so no point in saying you don't I know you don't.

https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/">https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/

And here's the Guardian quoting Gertjan Vlieghe from the bank of englands s monetary policy committee, but sure what would he know. 40b a yr loss and 2% drop in GDP, seem's to be very like the bloomberg report. But you won't believe that either

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/14/brexit-has-cost-uk-economy-at-least-80bn-since-vote-bank-of-england-rate-setter">https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ate-setter">https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/14/brexit-has-cost-uk-economy-at-least-80bn-since-vote-bank-of-england-rate-setter





It's not paralysed at all, show how countries are breaking the WTO guidelines such as most favoured nation in your example above. Most countries trade under FTA's and only apply WTO in a minority percentage of it's global trade.

SO your suggesting that the UK will become the wild west of the developed world, ignoring any sense of agreements and doing anything it want's. Good luck with that one. How do you think the EU would respond to this new pirate UK, there would off course be a measured response to any such behaviour.



Nissan may be investing but will it continue, that decision was made in 2016, since then it has cancelled it's plans to build the X-Trail in sunderland and it layed off hundreds of workers due to falling Diesel sales and it stopped production of it's infiniti q30. It may continue the investment but that doesn't mean it will sell more cars. Maybe it thinks all those BMW/Merc/Audi drives will start driving qashqai's in the UK, but with tariffs it's unlikely to sell more into the EU. What Nissan is doing is bucking the trend, what are other UK car manufacturers doing ?



 

That's your take on things, simplistic but it's your opinion. I might agree if it were two people trading and no other option or traders available, but that's not reality. For example Ireland is the UK's 5th largest export market, it accounted for 5.5% of UK exports and 3.2% of all UK imports, In that case Ireland is king and has the UK over a barrel ??. Does that sound about right, your argument makes no sense.

The UK will have zero FTA's, all other countries will have these and can trade with each other like normal. With the UK introducing barriers (not just tariffs) it is going to damage it's imports, other countries will apply WTO and tariffs on the UK and that will affect UK exports and that is going to be the new reality.

JLR, 500 job losses because of Brexit, really? Funny how the company never even mentioned Brexit to its workers as it announced the cuts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-51207324">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-m ... e-51207324">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-51207324



Hand Made Burger Company. 2nd time they have gone into administration and also didn't mention Brexit as the cause.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/23/handmade-burger-co-in-administration-with-loss-of-283-jobs">https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... f-283-jobs">https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/23/handmade-burger-co-in-administration-with-loss-of-283-jobs



First 2 decent sized businesses on the list and it's fake news. Do you not research things before you quote them as gospel Gerry? I think you should start as it's all drivel.



As for the Brexit crash, your first report said 130 billion, this one is stating 80 billion and all its doing is guessing.



Come back with facts Gerry, not these stories.

[GerryT]

Nope, Barry is right.



The Conservatives want to leave the EU and Boris wants to stay PM. Plus he will need another big thing to campaign about once folk start reacting against the flu lockdown. And it does not matter how many dodgy businesses use Covid 19 as an excuse to go tits up, BoJo knows that if he does not get us out of the EU sharpish he will be well buggered.

And on the day we leave, Gerry will be back to say that we can't because all the coffee cups used during the negotiations were white and that violates the EU Convention on Human Rights and Brussels thinks that we have a case to answer etc etc..............................

You are out of the EU, what Johnson has to do is get a good trade deal. The very easy thing is to walk away, but that's not good for the country and if that's what he does with the EU, god help him trying to get a trade deal with China and USA. Between those 3 that's over 62% of global GDP, the UK is roughly 3.2% going on 2019 estimates, the UK might be the 6th largest economy in the world but that's a generous way to look at things. Brexit needs to be forgotten about, the name of the game now is future trade deals.

[Borchester]

Of course you can ignore the list, that's your choice. Pick one bit and rubbish the lot. I didn't know why any of the listed companies are on that list. Went looking there and guess what. Thomas Cook blames Brexit in it's collapse.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/thomas-cook-share-price-profit-loss-results-brexit-travel-flights-a8916061.html">https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 16061.html">https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/thomas-cook-share-price-profit-loss-results-brexit-travel-flights-a8916061.html

I'm sure there are many reasons, but the fall in sterling (caused by brexit), people holding off on booking holidays in 2019 due to brexit uncertainty. It also mentions higher fuel and hotel costs (wow, stg falling has an impact, again brexit related).

It can't be said that brexit was 100% to blame, TC was at a difficult position running up to folding, but it's certain that Brexit was a factor and who knows, TC might be still here if Brexit hadn't happened the way it did.

Nope, Barry is right.



The Conservatives want to leave the EU and Boris wants to stay PM. Plus he will need another big thing to campaign about once folk start reacting against the flu lockdown. And it does not matter how many dodgy businesses use Covid 19 as an excuse to go tits up, BoJo knows that if he does not get us out of the EU sharpish he will be well buggered.

And on the day we leave, Gerry will be back to say that we can't because all the coffee cups used during the negotiations were white and that violates the EU Convention on Human Rights and Brussels thinks that we have a case to answer etc etc..............................

[GerryT]

Well, you continue to preach pro-EU stuff relentlessly, and I expect that.

- but you can't explain why a failing company like Thomas Cook was included in the list. So I'll choose to ignore it, thank you.

Of course you can ignore the list, that's your choice. Pick one bit and rubbish the lot. I didn't know why any of the listed companies are on that list. Went looking there and guess what. Thomas Cook blames Brexit in it's collapse.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/thomas-cook-share-price-profit-loss-results-brexit-travel-flights-a8916061.html">https://www.independent.co.uk/news/busi ... 16061.html">https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/thomas-cook-share-price-profit-loss-results-brexit-travel-flights-a8916061.html

I'm sure there are many reasons, but the fall in sterling (caused by brexit), people holding off on booking holidays in 2019 due to brexit uncertainty. It also mentions higher fuel and hotel costs (wow, stg falling has an impact, again brexit related).

It can't be said that brexit was 100% to blame, TC was at a difficult position running up to folding, but it's certain that Brexit was a factor and who knows, TC might be still here if Brexit hadn't happened the way it did.

[Barry]

Looking for direct company closures is not a reliable measure, there are always several factors seldom just 1. Nick wants to move the discussion onto jobs lost so he can pick holes in the point I originally made, which wasn't about jobs lost but that the UK has seen a 130b loss since brexit started. The UK tracked with other G7 countries typically with growth until 2016 and it's now lagging behind. This has been confirmed by the bank of England. Brexit won't be a cliff edge, it will be a slow drip and after 5, 10 or 15 yrs people will look back and take stock in what happened and what was lost.

But there are the blind followers of Brexit that think they are "taking back control" or "they need us more than we need them" slogan followers.

And the UK hasn't even properly left yet, it's not going to get better. A close trade deal would minimise the hit on both the UK and EU, chances of that now are very slim.

Well, you continue to preach pro-EU stuff relentlessly, and I expect that.

- but you can't explain why a failing company like Thomas Cook was included in the list. So I'll choose to ignore it, thank you.