Brexit to still go ahead despite coronavirus.

[GerryT]

Thomas Cook was because of Brexit was it, Gerry?

Nothing to do with their failing business model in latter years. If that one is suspect so is the whole list!

Looking for direct company closures is not a reliable measure, there are always several factors seldom just 1. Nick wants to move the discussion onto jobs lost so he can pick holes in the point I originally made, which wasn't about jobs lost but that the UK has seen a 130b loss since brexit started. The UK tracked with other G7 countries typically with growth until 2016 and it's now lagging behind. This has been confirmed by the bank of England. Brexit won't be a cliff edge, it will be a slow drip and after 5, 10 or 15 yrs people will look back and take stock in what happened and what was lost.

But there are the blind followers of Brexit that think they are "taking back control" or "they need us more than we need them" slogan followers.

And the UK hasn't even properly left yet, it's not going to get better. A close trade deal would minimise the hit on both the UK and EU, chances of that now are very slim.

[Barry]

Thomas Cook was because of Brexit was it, Gerry?

Nothing to do with their failing business model in latter years. If that one is suspect so is the whole list!

[GerryT]

Gerry, you're talking absolute rot. Show me where it categorically states the UK lost 130 billion. It's all based on what if's and estimates. Also please include the list of companies that closed as a result of Brexit.

I did show you but you don't want to believe it. Here's a list of jobs lost but you won't believe that either, so no point in saying you don't I know you don't.

https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/">https://smallbusinessprices.co.uk/brexit-index/

And here's the Guardian quoting Gertjan Vlieghe from the bank of englands s monetary policy committee, but sure what would he know. 40b a yr loss and 2% drop in GDP, seem's to be very like the bloomberg report. But you won't believe that either

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/14/brexit-has-cost-uk-economy-at-least-80bn-since-vote-bank-of-england-rate-setter">https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ate-setter">https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/14/brexit-has-cost-uk-economy-at-least-80bn-since-vote-bank-of-england-rate-setter

As for Trump, muppet or not the WTO is paralysed so your years of WTO doom and gloom are gone. How about the UK makes a deal to import Argentinian Beef at zero tariff and charge Eire 1000% tariff to stop the import of low grade steak, nothing you can do about it. You also totally ignore the fact that Nissan is going ahead with its £400 million investment in Sunderland! Germany better Deal or we become a hub for Japanese cars and they lose 15% of their business.

It's not paralysed at all, show how countries are breaking the WTO guidelines such as most favoured nation in your example above. Most countries trade under FTA's and only apply WTO in a minority percentage of it's global trade.

SO your suggesting that the UK will become the wild west of the developed world, ignoring any sense of agreements and doing anything it want's. Good luck with that one. How do you think the EU would respond to this new pirate UK, there would off course be a measured response to any such behaviour.



Nissan may be investing but will it continue, that decision was made in 2016, since then it has cancelled it's plans to build the X-Trail in sunderland and it layed off hundreds of workers due to falling Diesel sales and it stopped production of it's infiniti q30. It may continue the investment but that doesn't mean it will sell more cars. Maybe it thinks all those BMW/Merc/Audi drives will start driving qashqai's in the UK, but with tariffs it's unlikely to sell more into the EU. What Nissan is doing is bucking the trend, what are other UK car manufacturers doing ?

Ask anyone who has ever worked in trade, the customer isn't always right but customer is king. With a near 70 billion trade deficit we are king.

That's your take on things, simplistic but it's your opinion. I might agree if it were two people trading and no other option or traders available, but that's not reality. For example Ireland is the UK's 5th largest export market, it accounted for 5.5% of UK exports and 3.2% of all UK imports, In that case Ireland is king and has the UK over a barrel ??. Does that sound about right, your argument makes no sense.

The UK will have zero FTA's, all other countries will have these and can trade with each other like normal. With the UK introducing barriers (not just tariffs) it is going to damage it's imports, other countries will apply WTO and tariffs on the UK and that will affect UK exports and that is going to be the new reality.

[Nick]

I can see your struggling to keep up. Read that article again and it might sink in. In simple summary the UK from 2016 has lost £130b up to when that article was written, this has been lost. From that article to the end of 2020 it's predicted a further £70b will be lost. All due to Brexit. Obviously the prediction didn't factor CV19 so things will change and prob not for the better.





The high, what would that be ? seen as q3 and q4 last yr was at 1.3% and q1 this yr at 1.1%, what's the dizzying predictions for 2022.



https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyr/ukea">https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdom ... /ihyr/ukea">https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyr/ukea







Than man's a muppet, he withdraws funding from the WHO when there's a global pandemic so he can score points against China. He also goes against most countries attempts to prevent global warming. He's also hinted at pulling out from NATO. He's pushing the UK to leave in an effort to break the EU and yes with the WTO he's playing funny buggers. That will only have a bigger affect on the UK, without a FTA.





Nick you can ignore the Bloomberg report if you want, sure what would experts know. You can also ignore the Guardian anlysis and the UK gov reports on UK economic forecasts. You can ignore all the companies that closed. At the end of the day I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

Gerry, you're talking absolute rot. Show me where it categorically states the UK lost 130 billion. It's all based on what if's and estimates. Also please include the list of companies that closed as a result of Brexit.



As for Trump, muppet or not the WTO is paralysed so your years of WTO doom and gloom are gone. How about the UK makes a deal to import Argentinian Beef at zero tariff and charge Eire 1000% tariff to stop the import of low grade steak, nothing you can do about it. You also totally ignore the fact that Nissan is going ahead with its £400 million investment in Sunderland! Germany better Deal or we become a hub for Japanese cars and they lose 15% of their business.



Ask anyone who has ever worked in trade, the customer isn't always right but customer is king. With a near 70 billion trade deficit we are king.

[GerryT]

Gerry, there are that many flips between tenses I cant keep up. Your evidence in one breath is that 'the UK's trading relationship with these are going to change when the UK moves out of the transition phase' but your article points to this future event as the catalyst for 130 billion loss since 2016! Which is it? A future untethering or cause of our economic crash,

I can see your struggling to keep up. Read that article again and it might sink in. In simple summary the UK from 2016 has lost £130b up to when that article was written, this has been lost. From that article to the end of 2020 it's predicted a further £70b will be lost. All due to Brexit. Obviously the prediction didn't factor CV19 so things will change and prob not for the better.

by crash see GDP forecasts expected to be hitting a high by 2022.

The high, what would that be ? seen as q3 and q4 last yr was at 1.3% and q1 this yr at 1.1%, what's the dizzying predictions for 2022.



https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyr/ukea">https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdom ... /ihyr/ukea">https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyr/ukea

As for the WTO, you do know they are almost defunct due to the WTO's Appellate Body not being able to form a quorum? Trump has effectively put them out of business and that means the UK could trade with whom it wished with impunity, no MFT's or such if the WTO can't function.

Than man's a muppet, he withdraws funding from the WHO when there's a global pandemic so he can score points against China. He also goes against most countries attempts to prevent global warming. He's also hinted at pulling out from NATO. He's pushing the UK to leave in an effort to break the EU and yes with the WTO he's playing funny buggers. That will only have a bigger affect on the UK, without a FTA.

Could we actually have some evidence for this 130 Billion deficit instead of wish washy predictions?

Nick you can ignore the Bloomberg report if you want, sure what would experts know. You can also ignore the Guardian anlysis and the UK gov reports on UK economic forecasts. You can ignore all the companies that closed. At the end of the day I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

[Thomas]

I imagine that they will wait for a dry day, send  all the MPs and Peers to Hyde Park  where they can easily stand 2 metres apart and have the vote there. There is no particular reason to vote in the Palace of Westminster other than it has subsidised bars.

 ::



Load of utter bollocks the whole thing borkie.

[Borchester]

They have been testing electronic forms of voting for a while now , and some nations like canada and the usa already use it in various areas.





https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/23/eu-parliament-moves-to-email-voting-during-covid-19/">https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/23/eu-pa ... -covid-19/">https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/23/eu-parliament-moves-to-email-voting-during-covid-19/



Maybe the mother of all parliament will catch up eventually. ::



So what happens if we get to the end of the year and they dont pass this bill? Does FOM end automatically , or are you hinting at FOM continuing?

I imagine that they will wait for a dry day, send  all the MPs and Peers to Hyde Park  where they can easily stand 2 metres apart and have the vote there. There is no particular reason to vote in the Palace of Westminster other than it has subsidised bars.

[Thomas]

The main reason for this to be pulled right now is that they haven't actually figured a way for voting to take place yet.  It's just a talking shop at first.

They have been testing electronic forms of voting for a while now , and some nations like canada and the usa already use it in various areas.

The European Parliament will temporarily allow electronic voting by email as MEPs are forced to work remotely during the coronavirus crisis.



A spokeswoman for the parliament confirmed today that an "alternative electronic voting procedure" has been agree for the plenary session that will take place on March 26.



"This voting procedure is temporary and valid until 31 July," she added.



Earlier this month the parliament moved the majority of its staff to teleworking. MEPs have since switch to full remote work as confirmed cases of COVID-19 have continued to step up across Europe. Though how to handle voting remotely has generated some debate in and of itself.

[/b]



https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/23/eu-parliament-moves-to-email-voting-during-covid-19/">https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/23/eu-pa ... -covid-19/">https://techcrunch.com/2020/03/23/eu-parliament-moves-to-email-voting-during-covid-19/



Maybe the mother of all parliament will catch up eventually. ::



So what happens if we get to the end of the year and they dont pass this bill? Does FOM end automatically , or are you hinting at FOM continuing?

[Javert]

Oh Dear.....









https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/government-shelves-priti-patel-s-immigration-bill-house-of-commons-1-6616651">https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-6616651">https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/government-shelves-priti-patel-s-immigration-bill-house-of-commons-1-6616651







next up........sorry boys , but we are going to have to "Delay" brexit again.......

The main reason for this to be pulled right now is that they haven't actually figured a way for voting to take place yet.  It's just a talking shop at first.

[Thomas]

Oh Dear.....

Government shelves Priti Patel's immigration bill

[/b]

The government has withdrawn its controversial immigration bill that seeks to introduce a points-based system after Brexit.



The bill - which would have formally ceased freedom of movement with Europe after the Brexit transition period - was pulled from the Commons order paper ahead of a second reading on Tuesday.

[/b]



https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/government-shelves-priti-patel-s-immigration-bill-house-of-commons-1-6616651">https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-st ... -1-6616651">https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/government-shelves-priti-patel-s-immigration-bill-house-of-commons-1-6616651







next up........sorry boys , but we are going to have to "Delay" brexit again.......

[Nick]

Read the full article. It very clearly states that the £130b is what they estimate is the loss the UK economy HAS suffered since 2016 to-date. Their projections for the rest of this yr will push that loss to £200b and its clearly stated to be fully attributed to Brexit. The complication of brexit is the UK is leaving the EU but that will also affect the UK's trade relationship with every other country around the world hence the untethering from G7 countries such as USA, Japan and Canada. The UK's trading relationship with these are going to change when the UK moves out of the transition phase, Jan 2021 at this stage.



 That graph shows the percentage of UK exports to EU and non-EU countries. The cumulative total at any date is always 100%, but the share of trade is shifting between the two blocks. In 2015 its roughly 55% non EU and 45% EU countries. This doesn't show the value of trade. What the bloomberg report is doing is stating that the UK economy today is 3% below where it would have been solely beacuse of brexit.





The other graph is showing exactly the same data. This is beacuse the trade with the EU was pretty much saturated and was changing slowly yr on yr. But the UK was at the same time growing its exports to non EU countries. How did it do this, very simply by being a member of the EU and using the global deals the EU has negotiated, opening doors for the UK. This won't be affected if the UK can replicate these deals, or roll over these deals. But 4 yr's on and no substantial country has agreed to do this. Brexit will affect UK exports to the EU and countries all around the globe.





A weak pound does make a UK product more attractive on another countries shelf, or on ebay if all the following happens to not push up the price of the product in the UK.
[list=][/list]cost of raw material, say UK car industry where parts come from outside the UK.
[list=][/list]cost of labour, people will demand wage increases to pay for the price increase for holidays and foreign products on sale in the UK.
[list=][/list]Cost for tariffs as the UK will have no FTA's and WTO will introduce these for all countries. This is dependent on the UK
[list=][/list]Cost for lack of labour, making it more difficult for people to enter and possibly stay in the UK will mean young professionals or even skilled fruit pickers will go to countries without the red tape.

That's for product, the UK market is 80% services and global services, especially financial hate a volatile currency. Investors are typically risk adverse and if Stg continues to jump about this will greatly affect that sector.

Gerry, there are that many flips between tenses I cant keep up. Your evidence in one breath is that 'the UK's trading relationship with these are going to change when the UK moves out of the transition phase' but your article points to this future event as the catalyst for 130 billion loss since 2016! Which is it? A future untethering or cause of our economic crash, by crash see GDP forecasts expected to be hitting a high by 2022.



As for the WTO, you do know they are almost defunct due to the WTO's Appellate Body not being able to form a quorum? Trump has effectively put them out of business and that means the UK could trade with whom it wished with impunity, no MFT's or such if the WTO can't function.



Could we actually have some evidence for this 130 Billion deficit instead of wish washy predictions?

[GerryT]

And I quote...



"Research by Bloomberg Economics estimates that the economic cost of Brexit has already hit 130 billion pounds ($170 billion), with a further 70 billion pounds set to be added by the end of this year. That's based on the damage caused by the U.K. untethering from its Group of Seven peers over the past three years."





So you say it outlines the Brexit cost and in fact it is an estimation based on something that hasn't happened, IE our untethering.

Read the full article. It very clearly states that the £130b is what they estimate is the loss the UK economy HAS suffered since 2016 to-date. Their projections for the rest of this yr will push that loss to £200b and its clearly stated to be fully attributed to Brexit. The complication of brexit is the UK is leaving the EU but that will also affect the UK's trade relationship with every other country around the world hence the untethering from G7 countries such as USA, Japan and Canada. The UK's trading relationship with these are going to change when the UK moves out of the transition phase, Jan 2021 at this stage.

The graph below shows there estimate is nonsense and that EU trade has gone up slightly since 2016.



https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/EU_and_other_exports_over_time_v1.png">https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/EU_a ... ime_v1.png">https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/EU_and_other_exports_over_time_v1.png[/img]

That graph shows the percentage of UK exports to EU and non-EU countries. The cumulative total at any date is always 100%, but the share of trade is shifting between the two blocks. In 2015 its roughly 55% non EU and 45% EU countries. This doesn't show the value of trade. What the bloomberg report is doing is stating that the UK economy today is 3% below where it would have been solely beacuse of brexit.

This graph shows that until 2016 EU trade has been falling year on year. Trade with non EU countries has been going up.



https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/391C/production/_100202641_chart-eu_exports-ca1kq-nc.png">

The other graph is showing exactly the same data. This is beacuse the trade with the EU was pretty much saturated and was changing slowly yr on yr. But the UK was at the same time growing its exports to non EU countries. How did it do this, very simply by being a member of the EU and using the global deals the EU has negotiated, opening doors for the UK. This won't be affected if the UK can replicate these deals, or roll over these deals. But 4 yr's on and no substantial country has agreed to do this. Brexit will affect UK exports to the EU and countries all around the globe.

As for GBP V Euro, as you said it was 1.44 in 2015, it was also down to 1.27 before the referendum took place, it was also 1.06 in 2009.



If you understood business you would realise that a weak pound is good for exports and the manufacturing sector has benefited from this massively.

A weak pound does make a UK product more attractive on another countries shelf, or on ebay if all the following happens to not push up the price of the product in the UK.
[list=][/list]cost of raw material, say UK car industry where parts come from outside the UK.
[list=][/list]cost of labour, people will demand wage increases to pay for the price increase for holidays and foreign products on sale in the UK.
[list=][/list]Cost for tariffs as the UK will have no FTA's and WTO will introduce these for all countries. This is dependent on the UK
[list=][/list]Cost for lack of labour, making it more difficult for people to enter and possibly stay in the UK will mean young professionals or even skilled fruit pickers will go to countries without the red tape.

That's for product, the UK market is 80% services and global services, especially financial hate a volatile currency. Investors are typically risk adverse and if Stg continues to jump about this will greatly affect that sector.

[Nick]

This study by bloomberg Jan 2010 outlines the brexit cost to date, the UK economy is £130b below where it should be and they estimate another £70b by the end of 2020. This is not about simplistic examples, it's the gradual inability of the economy to grow at a rate it typically would and how investors are going elsewhere. As for Stg, against the Euro in 2015 before brexit the exchange was up at 1.44, it fell to a low of 1.06 in March but it's up to 1.13, that's an improvement but miles off where it was in 2015.



https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T">https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit- ... ?r=US&IR=T">https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1?r=US&IR=T



This doesn't factor in CV19 which will make thing worse for all countries. And if that's not bad enough the UK technically hasn't left yet, if it does on WTO then 2021 is going to be very rough.

And I quote...



"Research by Bloomberg Economics estimates that the economic cost of Brexit has already hit 130 billion pounds ($170 billion), with a further 70 billion pounds set to be added by the end of this year. That's based on the damage caused by the U.K. untethering from its Group of Seven peers over the past three years."





So you say it outlines the Brexit cost and in fact it is an estimation based on something that hasn't happened, IE our untethering.



The graph below shows there estimate is nonsense and that EU trade has gone up slightly since 2016.



https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/EU_and_other_exports_over_time_v1.png">https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/EU_a ... ime_v1.png">https://fullfact.org/media/uploads/EU_and_other_exports_over_time_v1.png[/img]



This graph shows that until 2016 EU trade has been falling year on year. Trade with non EU countries has been going up.



https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/391C/production/_100202641_chart-eu_exports-ca1kq-nc.png">



As for GBP V Euro, as you said it was 1.44 in 2015, it was also down to 1.27 before the referendum took place, it was also 1.06 in 2009.



If you understood business you would realise that a weak pound is good for exports and the manufacturing sector has benefited from this massively.

[GerryT]

I think the difference between you and i as i have said before Gerry is i want rid of this mob , you want them to stay.



FFS , after 40 years the europeans have had enough of them , think how we feel after 300 years.?



Talking about coronavirus for a minute , london was and remains the epicentre for the disease in north west europe. When the uk finally locked down , 80 % of deaths in the uk were in london...........................You can clearly see what the more democratic , productive union is  , and it isnt the bwitish empire one.

I'm changing that opinion. It's obvious there is a strong opinion in the UK that the EU is the root cause to many issues in the UK and it is sucking the UK dry. No matter what info put forward that opinion isn't changing, so brexit it is but I would like to see a comprehensive trade deal but it really doesn't look likely.

Ireland went into lock down pretty quickly. We have 5m people and 687 deaths, the UK has 67m people and 16550 deaths, that's roughly twice the death rate AND Ireland counts the deaths in nursing homes so the actual death rate in the UK is far higher.  I don't think Johnson going on holiday, applying herd immunity and then delaying lockdown. Even recently the tube was packed full of people, I wouldn't class that as a Govt. doing the best it can.

[GerryT]

Boris caught the Chinese flu because he was out shaking hands with folk who were eager to shake hands with him.

That's one way of looking at it, another is he stupidly got himself infected with his cavalier attitude. He then went around shaking hands with others and got them sick, did they all survive ?

Maybe if he followed some basic measures, social distancing, wash hands, isolate where possible and more people will survive this. He needs to be a better example, catching the virus in itself isn't an issue as anyone could. But advocating shaking hands as he did was irresponsible.