How to finish lockdown

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

Today the government has announced that all people returning to the UK must quarantine (self-isolate) for two weeks or face a £1000 fine.

Er . . . why do that now?  It should have been done months ago.  As things are now, people coming into the UK from abroad are no more likely to be infected with covid-19 than the general population, given that this country is one of the worst affected by the pandemic.



And this restriction has been brought in just after the premature lifting of lockdown. Where's the logic in that?  I for one won't be surprised if we found ourselves in an Iran style second wave in 2-3 weeks time. I hope I'm wrong.

[Borg Refinery]

Just give it two weeks.

Exactly...

[papasmurf]

Judging by the new infections in London - 24 per day - it looks as if the virus cannot find anyone new to inhabit. Perhaps London can be relaxed quicker than the rest of the nation. It has had the "fast burn".



https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-virus-could-be-wiped-out-in-london-in-weeks-as-rate-of-infection-is-slowing-say-researchers-11988579">//https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-virus-could-be-wiped-out-in-london-in-weeks-as-rate-of-infection-is-slowing-say-researchers-11988579

Just give it two weeks.

[Barry]

Judging by the new infections in London - 24 per day - it looks as if the virus cannot find anyone new to inhabit. Perhaps London can be relaxed quicker than the rest of the nation. It has had the "fast burn".



https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-virus-could-be-wiped-out-in-london-in-weeks-as-rate-of-infection-is-slowing-say-researchers-11988579">//https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-virus-could-be-wiped-out-in-london-in-weeks-as-rate-of-infection-is-slowing-say-researchers-11988579

[B0ycey]

Starting lockdown is easy. Scaring people to stay indoors and expecting them to lose that fear is impossible. Governments are now beinging to see that lockdown has a huge economic cost. And the only way to perhaps reverse the damage is by being honest with people that the younger and healthier you are, the less the risk this virus is to you and that every sample study from Bonn to Zurich has infection rates ten times higher than reported with a death figure at 0.4% and that the average age of death is 80.

[papasmurf]

A pandemic like this was coming sooner or later anyway and it was not inevitable that it would originate in China.  If you simply lay all the blame on China, the risk is that we won't be prepared next time around because we will just preach to other countries about not sending this kind of thing over to the UK

Quite. Such a pandemic could start in Britain.

[Javert]

Once the epidemic in Wuhan started to spread alarmingly it could no longer be kept secret and there ceased to be any reason for the Chinese government to downplay the seriousness to its own population.  Domestically, it became useful for the public to know how desperate the situation was because that would make it easier to introduce and enforce restrictions. Even if the numbers in China are somewhat worse than we're told, they're probably still a lot lower than UK, USA, Italy, Spain etc. Why?  Because we have no evidence to the contrary - just suspicion.

If you listen to the detailed reports from foreign correspondents in china (including ones who have in the meantime come back), their general feeling is that China was burned pretty bad for their cover ups on past pandemics, and that the cover up relating to this was mainly coming from within the Wuhan local government.



In China there is a culture of fear and nobody wants to give bad news to central government.  This means that it was at the Wuhan local level that they tried to cover this up until it became impossible to do.



In fact, if the Wuhan local authorities had done what they were supposed to do, the virus would possibly never have left China.



So, if we look at it that way, the initial problem that led to the virus being transmitted to other areas and countries happened in China - it's not clear whether this was done through sytemic failure of deliberate cover up.



However, subsequent problems are down to other country governments - when cases were first becoming apparent in the UK, the scientific information that this was a major issue was already out there.



To put if very roughly:

- Failures in China are responsible for the first few thousands deaths in each country.

- Failures in the local country are responsible for all further deaths beyond that.



If you just say it's all China's fault, you are letting your own government off the hook for their part of the responsibility.



A pandemic like this was coming sooner or later anyway and it was not inevitable that it would originate in China.  If you simply lay all the blame on China, the risk is that we won't be prepared next time around because we will just preach to other countries about not sending this kind of thing over to the UK

[T00ts]

I think it has become increasingly evident that Trump is so wrong to be any kind of leader anywhere. I have friends who voted for him 'we needed a change' they said, Now they won't talk politics. I cannot believe that he can be as unintelligent and childish as he appears to be on camera.



China was and is true to form. Why is anyone surprised at their actions on Covid19? The only reasons they came out was when they needed help. Even then it was proportional by all accounts. I suspect millions have died there, but let's be honest would any more openness have made a difference to us? I suspect that the people who matter here looked on in some bewilderment hoping and expecting it to invade the East and not bother us. So much for globalisation.

[Barry]

Once the epidemic in Wuhan started to spread alarmingly it could no longer be kept secret

You've got it in one. That was the intention so they cannot be trusted.

 and there ceased to be any reason for the Chinese government to downplay the seriousness to its own population.  Domestically, it became useful for the public to know how desperate the situation was because that would make it easier to introduce and enforce restrictions. Even if the numbers in China are somewhat worse than we're told, they're probably still a lot lower than UK, USA, Italy, Spain etc. Why?  Because we have no evidence to the contrary - just suspicion.



It would be counter-productive for the Chinese government to downplay the number of cases or deaths to the country's own population of 1.7 billion people. That would be more important to them than their international reputation.



A jealous and vindictive man, Donald Trump has been slinging mud at China because of his own failure to handle the crisis effectively in his own country. He is jealous because China seems to have been much more successful at controlling the virus than USA and vindictive because the pandemic started in China. Some of this mud has stuck.

Oh wow. China's lies and deception are somehow Trump's fault. What a pathetic attempt at deflection.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

When did you start believing them?

Was it after they admitted it could be passed person to person? Was it after the doctor who said "we have a new virus here" was arrested?

Was it after the same doctor died, or was killed?

Your faith in any figures coming out of China is astounding.

Once the epidemic in Wuhan started to spread alarmingly it could no longer be kept secret and there ceased to be any reason for the Chinese government to downplay the seriousness to its own population.  Domestically, it became useful for the public to know how desperate the situation was because that would make it easier to introduce and enforce restrictions. Even if the numbers in China are somewhat worse than we're told, they're probably still a lot lower than UK, USA, Italy, Spain etc. Why?  Because we have no evidence to the contrary - just suspicion.



It would be counter-productive for the Chinese government to downplay the number of cases or deaths to the country's own population of 1.7 billion people. That would be more important to them than their international reputation.



A jealous and vindictive man, Donald Trump has been slinging mud at China because of his own failure to handle the crisis effectively in his own country. He is jealous because China seems to have been much more successful at controlling the virus than USA and vindictive because the pandemic started in China. Some of this mud has stuck.

[papasmurf]

Your faith in any figures coming out of China is astounding.

Do you have faith in what we are being fed by the British government?

[Barry]

China has almost eradicated covid-19 but there are still sporadic small outbreaks and they're already sealing off cities again today.

When did you start believing them?

Was it after they admitted it could be passed person to person? Was it after the doctor who said "we have a new virus here" was arrested?

Was it after the same doctor died, or was killed?

Your faith in any figures coming out of China is astounding.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

Judging by the pictures this morning of crowded buses and the London Underground being packed I expect a massive spike in Covid-19 cases in two weeks time.

It's chilling to see those photos. All the good work done by lockdown, even if it was brought in much too late, will be undone and we'll be in a situation like the USA before we know it.



China has almost eradicated covid-19 but there are still sporadic small outbreaks and they're already sealing off cities again today.

[papasmurf]

The government has sort of eased lockdown while still urging people to stay home.  The mixed messages can be taken either way.  Cautious people can stay home and use the new guidelines to justify their decision, while the more gung-ho tendency can interpret the guidelines differently and hop on a crowded bus without wearing a face mask.

Judging by the pictures this morning of crowded buses and the London Underground being packed I expect a massive spike in Covid-19 cases in two weeks time.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

The government has sort of eased lockdown while still urging people to stay home.  The mixed messages can be taken either way.  Cautious people can stay home and use the new guidelines to justify their decision, while the more gung-ho tendency can interpret the guidelines differently and hop on a crowded bus without wearing a face mask.



The relaxation is very likely to increase number of infections and we could be heading for the second wave that some are warning of.  At the first sign of a second wave the logical thing for the government to do would be to go back to a stricter lockdown.  My worry is that if there is a second wave the government won't do that because it looks like an admission they'd made a mistake and now making a U-turn.  Instead they might just decide to throw up their hands and fob the public off with futile platitudes and gimmicky rules like (for example) you can meet two relatives together in a park provided you walk to see them but only one if you drive.