Lexiters - how is it working out for you?

[BeElBeeBub]

The beginning of the year for me is 1st Jan. Cameron announced the referendum on 23rd Jan so that says to me 58% of leave voters knew what they wanted before the referendum was announced. It's over 40% if you just use the people who knew a year or more before.



Anyway, I wouldn't rely on any one who can't count like your man Ashcroft. 😝

I dislike Ashcroft but that survey was the most comprehensive done post ref.



I was taking the ref being called as the commencement of the 2015 Parliament as it was a conservative manifesto commitment, but you are correct it was formally announced in late Jan.



It stretches credibility that every single one of the 18% of leavers who.made their mind up between the 1st of Jan and 23rd May 2016 did so in the first 3 weeks of Jan.



The core point is that a significant (20%+) number of voters made UK their kind in the last week or so of the campaign.



Enough people.made the decision *on the day* to change the result significantly.

[Nick]

Have you a source for that?



The Ashcroft poll taken just after the ref gives shows over 50% of people (on both sides) made their mind up after (since the beginning of the year) the ref had been called.



Over 20% made their minds up in the last week with nearly 10% making their minds up on the day.



Given the margin was a 4% that shows the advertising campaigns over the last few days (when vote leave dumped a significant amount of money on digital advertising - source: Dominic Cummings) were pivotal.



http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/timeline-by-LR.jpg">

The beginning of the year for me is 1st Jan. Cameron announced the referendum on 23rd Jan so that says to me 58% of leave voters knew what they wanted before the referendum was announced. It's over 40% if you just use the people who knew a year or more before.



Anyway, I wouldn't rely on any one who can't count like your man Ashcroft. 😝

[BeElBeeBub]

Those who voted leave are more likely to be those who either didn't want to enter the EEC in the first place or like my self have wanted out long before Cameron was even a minister.

Have you a source for that?



The Ashcroft poll taken just after the ref gives shows over 50% of people (on both sides) made their mind up after (since the beginning of the year) the ref had been called.



Over 20% made their minds up in the last week with nearly 10% making their minds up on the day.



Given the margin was a 4% that shows the advertising campaigns over the last few days (when vote leave dumped a significant amount of money on digital advertising - source: Dominic Cummings) were pivotal.



http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/timeline-by-LR.jpg">

[Sheepy]

Could be, but the data that I read a few months back actually showed a stronger correlation between education level and leave/remain voting, than age.  As we all know, correlation doesn't prove causation so we it doesn't prove anything, but that's what the data showed i.e. that even younger people were more likely to vote remain if they had a high level of education.  I can't remember whether it defined highly educated the way you have in your post, or whether it was having A levels.

Admitting the education system is more about brainwashing than it is about education,is probably not your finest moment.

[Javert]

Rarely, I agree with you!



I think the correlation between educational level (measured by attaining a degree) and remain/leave likelihood is probably a function of age.



You would get the same skew for any other age split preference (as you say Xbox use)



The key question about the age link to leave/remain is whether or not aging increases Euroscepticism or if it is a functioning the baby boomer cohort.



If people naturally become more Eurosceptic as they age (for whatever reason) then demographic drift won't effect the result.



If it is a cohort effect (eg that generation is inherently more Eurosceptic, whilst the generations after are less so) the demographic drift to remain will be a big effect.

Could be, but the data that I read a few months back actually showed a stronger correlation between education level and leave/remain voting, than age.  As we all know, correlation doesn't prove causation so we it doesn't prove anything, but that's what the data showed i.e. that even younger people were more likely to vote remain if they had a high level of education.  I can't remember whether it defined highly educated the way you have in your post, or whether it was having A levels.

[Nick]

Rarely, I agree with you!



I think the correlation between educational level (measured by attaining a degree) and remain/leave likelihood is probably a function of age.



You would get the same skew for any other age split preference (as you say Xbox use)



The key question about the age link to leave/remain is whether or not aging increases Euroscepticism or if it is a functioning the baby boomer cohort.



If people naturally become more Eurosceptic as they age (for whatever reason) then demographic drift won't effect the result.



If it is a cohort effect (eg that generation is inherently more Eurosceptic, whilst the generations after are less so) the demographic drift to remain will be a big effect.

Those who voted leave are more likely to be those who either didn't want to enter the EEC in the first place or like my self have wanted out long before Cameron was even a minister.

[BeElBeeBub]

Shame there isn't a category for arrogance.



You really believe people voting leave is based on the level of education? Just shows how little grey matter you have.



In the 70's and 80's very few people went to University compared to the 50% of students that now attend. Simply using age as a measure you will instantly get a higher percentage voting remain who have attended University.



I therefore defuse that 99% of Xbox users voted remain, this is using the same pathetic method you're hanging your hat on.

Rarely, I agree with you!



I think the correlation between educational level (measured by attaining a degree) and remain/leave likelihood is probably a function of age.



You would get the same skew for any other age split preference (as you say Xbox use)



The key question about the age link to leave/remain is whether or not aging increases Euroscepticism or if it is a functioning the baby boomer cohort.



If people naturally become more Eurosceptic as they age (for whatever reason) then demographic drift won't effect the result.



If it is a cohort effect (eg that generation is inherently more Eurosceptic, whilst the generations after are less so) the demographic drift to remain will be a big effect.

[Borchester]

Accepted. I do recognise that leavers are frequently called stupid and that can influence how leavers react to issues such as education being raised.

Alternatively, you could accept that few people went to university in 1973 so it was the thickos that voted the UK into the EEC. Then 43 years later they realised their mistake and voted the UK out of the EU.



So it could be said that Brexiters may be a bunch of dimbats, but we get there in the end  

[Ciaphas]

Well then please accept my apologies.

Accepted. I do recognise that leavers are frequently called stupid and that can influence how leavers react to issues such as education being raised.

[Nick]

No I didn't.



I mentioned several variables including age, sex, level of education, employment status, employment and political leaning but made no value judgement or singled any one out as significant.



It seems you started with a conclusion and then misrepresent the content of my posts to try and make them fit.

Well then please accept my apologies.

[Ciaphas]

You stated that levels of education were decisive in the 2016 result. What other conclusion can I come to?



If you weren't then why mention education?

No I didn't.



I mentioned several variables including age, sex, level of education, employment status, employment and political leaning but made no value judgement or singled any one out as significant.



It seems you started with a conclusion and then misrepresent the content of my posts to try and make them fit.

[Nick]

Where did I state leave voters were thick?

You stated that levels of education were decisive in the 2016 result. What other conclusion can I come to?



If you weren't then why mention education?

[Ciaphas]

Personal attacks!!!



You just wrote 3 paragraphs stating how thick leave voters are.



I categorically stayed that voting was linked to age.

Where did I state leave voters were thick?

[T00ts]

Of course there was a time when a University education was seen as a chance to be one step above the 'others'. Now of course it is a destination for all with little regard to the educational achievement of many. Courses were designed to make up the numbers and thus to claim  attendance at university is actually little to do with the intelligence or otherwise of graduates.

[Nick]

Personal attacks are unhelpful.



I have not attached any value judgement or significance to these results despite your implication otherwise. I actually agree with your arguement that educational attainment is in part rooted in historic shifts in university attendance.



You asserted that peoples voting choice was not influenced by political preference, age, sex or education but judging from the results I feel there are grounds to consider potential causal relations between these factors and how people voted.

Personal attacks!!!



You just wrote 3 paragraphs stating how thick leave voters are.



I categorically stayed that voting was linked to age.