US abandons Taiwan?

[Sampanviking]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59005300

You should have read the article John not just post the link.
As soon as he spoke, his people were running around desperately trying to convince everybody that the one china policy has not changed.
The commitment he spoke about is nothing more than to help Taiwan to defend itself (highly questionable in itself) but only amounts to a justification to sell arms.

Be under no illusions, if real shooting starts across the straits, the USN would be nowhere in sight.
More than that of course, if the DPP really did try to declare independence, you would see a Military Coup by the ROC National Army before even the PRC fired a shot.
Both the PRC and ROC are the sons of Dr Sun and both respect his doctrine.

[johnofgwent]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-59005300

[cromwell]

@cromwell The Cuban missile crisis rather proves my point I think. Cuba was in the US's back yard and the Soviets took the warnings of red lines seriously. Taiwan is more than in China's back yard, it is sovereign Chinese territory. No way will they let the yanks just help themselves by establishing a puppet like the DPP.
Btw as a result of Cuba the US did remove missiles from Turkey.

No it doesn't prove your point,the US mindset is the whole of the pacific is its backyard.

Taiwan has been established for sometime so your establishing a puppet isn't relevant.
You think the US done for,not yet and poking a bear with a toothache isn't great politics.

You're a sinophile,nowt wrong with that as the Chinese people are ok and your youtube contributions can be interesting but much comes across as the organ the chinese peoples daily which is pure propaganda.

Might fool some but Jog had it right any real opposition or contra opinion disappears silenced forever.

[Sampanviking]

@cromwell The Cuban missile crisis rather proves my point I think. Cuba was in the US's back yard and the Soviets took the warnings of red lines seriously. Taiwan is more than in China's back yard, it is sovereign Chinese territory. No way will they let the yanks just help themselves by establishing a puppet like the DPP.
Btw as a result of Cuba the US did remove missiles from Turkey.

@johnofgwent - You really should check your facts John. All the bordering nations of the SCS claim all of it. The Chinese 9 dash line dates back to the Qing dynasty and is claimed by both PRC and ROC.
Vietnam claims all the SCS as far East and Philippines
The Philippines claims the SCS as far West as Vietnam and also claims the entire Philippines Sea as well
Malaysia claims the SCS virtually as far north as China and even Brunei claims a slice will up to the level of the Philippines
These are maritime territorial disputes and typical of the hundreds that exist worldwide. The only thing not typical is the US sticking its beak in from 7000 miles away into a disputes which are absolutely none of its concern or business.
There have been no threats of military force by China against the other claimants beyond the enforcement of normal territorial waters around the new islands it has created and occupied. Nobody is prevented from accessing the SCS, nobody has been threatened not to enter the SCS and no innocent merchant shipping has been harassed by the PLAN in the SCS.
There is no threat at all against Merchant shipping that requires the US and poodles to claim it is needed to protect it, a fact that becomes ever more stark when you consider that over 90% of merchant traffic passing through the SCS is the Chinese merchant fleet of ships engaged in direct trade with China.
Once again it is the very pink interlopers in a very yellow part of the world that need to learn to mind there own business.
 

[johnofgwent]

@cromwell The reality is that the US only likes to bomb flat third rate developing countries. Somehow the notion of massive high intensity guided missile warfare against a peer military competitor, in that competitors back yard, does not wash. Its not what the US does and it wont fight that battle.

@johnofgwent - Right so China's finishing off its internal civil war is somehow "provoking Armaggedon"? Maybe the provocation comes from the US (plus poodles) poking in its unwanted nose from over 7000 miles away. Maybe the US needs to learn to mind its own business.

And maybe, just maybe, China needs to wind it's neck in with its actions militarising islands in areas other nations claim are their sovereign territory and threatening military action against them.

[cromwell]

@cromwell The reality is that the US only likes to bomb flat third rate developing countries. Somehow the notion of massive high intensity guided missile warfare against a peer military competitor, in that competitors back yard, does not wash. Its not what the US does and it wont fight that battle.

@johnofgwent - Right so China's finishing off its internal civil war is somehow "provoking Armaggedon"? Maybe the provocation comes from the US (plus poodles) poking in its unwanted nose from over 7000 miles away. Maybe the US needs to learn to mind its own business.

The problem with that is the Yanks regard the Pacific as their back yard,and so cuban crisis never happened then did it?

[Sampanviking]

@cromwell The reality is that the US only likes to bomb flat third rate developing countries. Somehow the notion of massive high intensity guided missile warfare against a peer military competitor, in that competitors back yard, does not wash. Its not what the US does and it wont fight that battle.

@johnofgwent - Right so China's finishing off its internal civil war is somehow "provoking Armaggedon"? Maybe the provocation comes from the US (plus poodles) poking in its unwanted nose from over 7000 miles away. Maybe the US needs to learn to mind its own business.

[johnofgwent]

Wishful thinking from Cromwell and god knows what John is trying to say

John is simply pondering how magnificent the view will be when Xi finally provokes Armageddon. And wonders whether America seeming to go soft on the Chinese Communist party might be an insane ploy to "encourage" things ....

[cromwell]

Wishful thinking from Cromwell and god knows what John is trying to say??!! Maybe that the precise history of the Island as laid out in my second post is somehow some kind of re-written history put out by the Xi Presidency???

Well, it aint, that is exactly how it happened and how it is.
The ROC lost in 1949 and didn't make an effort to retake control of the mainland during the weakest days of the PRC in the fifties and sixties. Re-establishing the ROC as the govt of all China again now is a pipe-dream and no one in the KMT is even still smoking it.

Wishfull thinking.....really?
Why on earth would I wish for a confrontation between the superpower on its way down and the one on its way up,the potential for that confrontation to turn to nuclear conflagration however remote too awful to contemplate.

Wishfull thinking? Nah more like recognising reality.

[Sampanviking]

Wishful thinking from Cromwell and god knows what John is trying to say??!! Maybe that the precise history of the Island as laid out in my second post is somehow some kind of re-written history put out by the Xi Presidency???

Well, it aint, that is exactly how it happened and how it is.
The ROC lost in 1949 and didn't make an effort to retake control of the mainland during the weakest days of the PRC in the fifties and sixties. Re-establishing the ROC as the govt of all China again now is a pipe-dream and no one in the KMT is even still smoking it.

[johnofgwent]

Thank you Barry
I also do not know the number of Marines on the Island, but it is only likely to be a few dozen instructors in relation to using recent purchases. Nothing that would make any difference if the balloon really went up.
Taiwan is a part of China, which is why there is a one China policy for both the Mainland and the Island. Taiwan is just the name of the Island and politically it is the Republic of China (ROC) The Island was seized by the Japanese in the 19th Century and taken back by the ROC in 1945.
In 1949, the ROC retreated to the Island after losing the civil war and stayed under the leadership of Chiang Kai Shek.
The ROC was the originally recognised China and sat on China's seat at the UN until Nixon recognised the PRC in the early 70's.

The ROC is no less Chinese than the PRC and the official language of the Island of Taiwan is Mandarin.

That is the position as seen by Chairman Xi


I think the People's Republic of China who lost the mainland to the Communist Party have other ideas

[cromwell]

Well US power may be on the wane Sampan but they ain't done for yet and not by a long chalk,there is the potential there for armed confrontation and just because Biden is a silly old fool don't imagine they wont take a stand.

[Sampanviking]

I thanked the OP because of it being a well thought out and good topic for discussion. I think it deserves some thoughtful replies.

Maggie Thatcher doesn't come into it, as much as I remember her with respect.

I was surprised to read that the USA already have troops in Taiwan, though the article didn't mention numbers, but said they had been in about 12 months. So Trump put them in?
Meanwhile, USA have moved on to a doombrain in charge of the country; I hope for everyone's sake that he has devolved some responsibility for their powerful military to someone capable of unbroken thought and capable of finishing a sentence.
The USA, for all their meddling, never seem to really finish a war and become victors. They have not seen much of a surrender since 1945 in Japan.
What they have done in modern times is invade, quell and eventually withdraw, leaving a bloody (literal) mess and an Islamist backlash.

I would have to do some research to figure out how Taiwan has become semi-detached from China. I will do that, but when I see things in the shops, sometimes it says "Made in Taiwan" others "Taiwan, RoC". Taiwan already seems to be Chinese. Are they not similar people, languages and cultures?

Can there be a negotiated solution to this, or is capitulation of Taiwanese people to the CCP a red line they will not cross?
It does seem they are already half way?

Thank you Barry
I also do not know the number of Marines on the Island, but it is only likely to be a few dozen instructors in relation to using recent purchases. Nothing that would make any difference if the balloon really went up.
Taiwan is a part of China, which is why there is a one China policy for both the Mainland and the Island. Taiwan is just the name of the Island and politically it is the Republic of China (ROC) The Island was seized by the Japanese in the 19th Century and taken back by the ROC in 1945.
In 1949, the ROC retreated to the Island after losing the civil war and stayed under the leadership of Chiang Kai Shek.
The ROC was the originally recognised China and sat on China's seat at the UN until Nixon recognised the PRC in the early 70's.

The ROC is no less Chinese than the PRC and the official language of the Island of Taiwan is Mandarin.

[Barry]

I thanked the OP because of it being a well thought out and good topic for discussion. I think it deserves some thoughtful replies.

Maggie Thatcher doesn't come into it, as much as I remember her with respect.

I was surprised to read that the USA already have troops in Taiwan, though the article didn't mention numbers, but said they had been in about 12 months. So Trump put them in?
Meanwhile, USA have moved on to a doombrain in charge of the country; I hope for everyone's sake that he has devolved some responsibility for their powerful military to someone capable of unbroken thought and capable of finishing a sentence.
The USA, for all their meddling, never seem to really finish a war and become victors. They have not seen much of a surrender since 1945 in Japan.
What they have done in modern times is invade, quell and eventually withdraw, leaving a bloody (literal) mess and an Islamist backlash.

I would have to do some research to figure out how Taiwan has become semi-detached from China. I will do that, but when I see things in the shops, sometimes it says "Made in Taiwan" others "Taiwan, RoC". Taiwan already seems to be Chinese. Are they not similar people, languages and cultures?

Can there be a negotiated solution to this, or is capitulation of Taiwanese people to the CCP a red line they will not cross?
It does seem they are already half way?

[Sampanviking]

Well, Maggie allowed the Argentinians to believe the same, and then sent her cannon fodder in to kick their arse and deliver her what was it 15 years in power.


I wonder ....

You are s**tting me I hope John?
The only useful comparison in that comment is to consider just how close, forty years ago, the air force of a very third rate developing country came to handing one of the World's premier navies its a*se on a plate. Mainly by the use of dumb bombs.

If however you really do believe that the differential between the USN/USAF and PLAN PLAAF today is anything like that which existed between the Argentine and UK of the 80's then you really need to bring your understanding of reality up to date. Yes I know you live perpetually in the 1950's, sadly its gone and the real world of today is nothing like.