Tory majority in doubt as poll shows lead of just 8 points

[Borchester]

My God, man. How soon you forget the Boris Bikes and the Boris Bendy Buses designed to exterminate their riders at every roundabout.



Boris has done more to keep the green lobby in its place (under the wheels of a bus) than any other politician in the country and the real genius is he takes money from their credit cards as they willingly go to the slaughter.



He is a genius the like of which the world has not seen since David Icke.

 :hattip  :hattip

[johnofgwent]

True. Part of the problem is that he is so bloody glum. Wurzel cracks a smile every so often but that is usually because he is dreaming of shooting a few kulaks. Looking back I can't really recall much that Boris did when he was Mayor of London other than banning booze on the Tube and getting stuck on a zip wire, but he was so clearly enjoying himself that it seemed a shame not to vote for him.

My God, man. How soon you forget the Boris Bikes and the Boris Bendy Buses designed to exterminate their riders at every roundabout.



Boris has done more to keep the green lobby in its place (under the wheels of a bus) than any other politician in the country and the real genius is he takes money from their credit cards as they willingly go to the slaughter.



He is a genius the like of which the world has not seen since David Icke.

[Borchester]

I cannot see why they wasted money on an anti Corbyn campaign. The man does the job for them every time he opens his mouth

True. Part of the problem is that he is so bloody glum. Wurzel cracks a smile every so often but that is usually because he is dreaming of shooting a few kulaks. Looking back I can't really recall much that Boris did when he was Mayor of London other than banning booze on the Tube and getting stuck on a zip wire, but he was so clearly enjoying himself that it seemed a shame not to vote for him.

[morayloon]

I am in the pay of Tory Central Office so naturally I pick the poll that shows my hero Boris in the best light

Well, you picked the wrong one didn't you!!!

the Tories usually get a 10% premium

Here we go again! You'll have to provide your evidence because the only election (since 1979)I can find that comes close is that of 1992.

[johnofgwent]

I think the Conservative election slogan 'Britain deserves better' is a shot in the foot since it's essentially telling the public not to vote for them given that the Conservatives bear most of the responsibility for the current problems the UK faces.



This is no doubt why the other focus of their campaign is the vilify the alternative to make Mr Johnson look like the least worse option. I hear they have spent a lot of money on an anti-Corbyn campaign.

I cannot see why they wasted money on an anti Corbyn campaign. The man does the job for them every time he opens his mouth

[Borchester]

Im getting the snp polling on average around 46% , so fingers crossed.



If the snp wipe out most of the tories and labours scottish seats , look on the bright side borkie.



it means from your perspective it being less likely of a coaltion against brexit  at westminster , with both labour and libs fearing the consequences of working with the snp in government.



Could be a win win , we get indy , you get brexit.



no labour government in england forevermore. :hattip

  :hattip  :hattip  :hattip

[Nick]

That is short of 650 seats.

Sin Fein !!

[Thomas]

Well I am more up with politics that those who extrapolate raw opinion poll data into number of seats a party will get at the next general election.

The Tories are set to lose most if not all seats in Scotland.

So are labour.

So the likelihood of a hung Parliament with no party with an overall majority is more likely than some here seem to think.

I dont know why you think that , we have been discussing this for quite some time.



However it looks easier for brexit supporting parties to form some sort of government than the remain supporting parties.



If the snp get 50 odd seats , then the price for support will be another indy ref.



If i was sturgeon , i would act the unscrupulous politician and sell those seats to the highest bidder in return for another shot at indy.

[Thomas]

I am in the pay of Tory Central Office so naturally I pick the poll that shows my hero Boris in the best light.



I think that the error bound for the SNP should be around +/- 10%, which would suggest 45 to 55 seats.

Im getting the snp polling on average around 46% , so fingers crossed.



If the snp wipe out most of the tories and labours scottish seats , look on the bright side borkie.



it means from your perspective it being less likely of a coaltion against brexit  at westminster , with both labour and libs fearing the consequences of working with the snp in government.



Could be a win win , we get indy , you get brexit.



no labour government in england forevermore. :hattip

[papasmurf]

That is correct Barry, but there is no point in explaining these matters to Pappy who is not really up on politics.

Well I am more up with politics that those who extrapolate raw opinion poll data into number of seats a party will get at the next general election.

The Tories are set to lose most if not all seats in Scotland.

The joker that is the Brexit party effect is an unknown quantity.

Plus it is possible London could end painted mostly red.

Tactical voting could mean Lib-Dem gains.

So the likelihood of a hung Parliament with no party with an overall majority is more likely than some here seem to think.

[Borchester]

Don't know about that ORB poll but ComRes's most recent poll showed the same %ages for the 2 big parties

ComRes - 2019-10-31

CON: 36%

LAB: 28%

LDEM: 17%

BRX: 10%

SNP: 4%

GRN: 3%

PC: 0.5%*



Flavible Projection

CON: 351 (+33)

LAB: 189 (-73)

SNP: 50 (+15)

LDEM: 37 (+25)

PC: 4 (-)

GRN: 1 (-)



I don't  know why you pick on 1 poll and run with it as if it is gospel. Any Poll is just a snapshot with a margin of error depending on sample size.There have been 8 polls since the campaign started. You Gov (Times)15% Tory Lead; You Gov (Sunday Times 12%; Opinium (Observer) 16%; Deltapoll (Mail on Sunday) 12%; Panelbase 11%; Survation (Daily Mail) 8%. As you can see, they are all over the place!

I am in the pay of Tory Central Office so naturally I pick the poll that shows my hero Boris in the best light.



I think that the error bound for the SNP should be around +/- 10%, which would suggest 45 to 55 seats.

[morayloon]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/02/tory-majority-doubt-telegraph-poll-shows-lead-just-eight-points/">//https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/02/tory-majority-doubt-telegraph-poll-shows-lead-just-eight-points/%20%20



Apparently it is:



Conservatives    36%



Labour              28%



Lib Dems          14%



Brexit Party      12%



Buggered if I know how many seats that works out at, but I dare say we will be told soon enough.

Don't know about that ORB poll but ComRes's most recent poll showed the same %ages for the 2 big parties

ComRes - 2019-10-31

CON: 36%

LAB: 28%

LDEM: 17%

BRX: 10%

SNP: 4%

GRN: 3%

PC: 0.5%*



Flavible Projection

CON: 351 (+33)

LAB: 189 (-73)

SNP: 50 (+15)

LDEM: 37 (+25)

PC: 4 (-)

GRN: 1 (-)



I don't  know why you pick on 1 poll and run with it as if it is gospel. Any Poll is just a snapshot with a margin of error depending on sample size.There have been 8 polls since the campaign started. You Gov (Times)15% Tory Lead; You Gov (Sunday Times 12%; Opinium (Observer) 16%; Deltapoll (Mail on Sunday) 12%; Panelbase 11%; Survation (Daily Mail) 8%. As you can see, they are all over the place!

[Borchester]

I think that a 40 majority would mean the Tories have 345 seats as opposed to the others have 305.

That is correct Barry, but there is no point in explaining these matters to Pappy who is not really up on politics.

[papasmurf]

I think that a 40 majority would mean the Tories have 345 seats as opposed to the others have 305.

That is short of 650 seats.

[Barry]

I think that a 40 majority would mean the Tories have 345 seats as opposed to the others have 305.