Tesla 2014 Vs 2019

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

We're rapidly getting to the stage where the only logical reason for NOT buying an electric car is initial purchase price.



Tesla cars and recent EVs from other manufacturers have a battery range that would cover the distance that most drivers would want to do in a day without taking a break of half an hour or more, at a location where they could top up the battery while having a snack or whatever.



There are more and more fast charging points appearing around the country.



Battery degradation, particularly on Teslas, is nothing like as bad as some feared.



Electric cars are very cheap to run and maintain compared to an equivalent petrol or diesel car.



More and more of our electricity is coming from renewable sources.



Electric cars are easy to drive (OK, I haven't driven one yet) and quiet and vibration-free.

[BeElBeeBub]

It probably doesn't matter in the long term - the risk friendly nature of US capitalism probably means that the work done by Tesla will be preserved even if that particular company doesn't survive.

That's the point



A giga scale battery factory is such a valuable immobile asset that, once built, it's likely to continue to operate even if the parent company goes bust.



Even if Tesla goes pop in a few years it's highly likely the valuable parts of the operation will continue.



Teardowns of various Tesla models all come to the same conclusion. The battery and drive train is first class



The body shell is behind what you would expect from a traditional car maker (too many parts, complex processes etc).



So the battery plant would be extremely valuable to any competition.

[Major Sinic]

We're going one electric (Madam's) and one hybrid (ours). Madam's previous car was petrol, the other was a diesel X5. Unfortunately, neither was old enough to qualify for the Mayor's London Resident's Scrappage Scheme. However, there are personal benefits: reduced resident's parking costs; no yearly road tax; and no congestion charge.

I guess that's encouraged us to play our part in cleaning up London's air. No doubt Jeremiahs will argue new cars and batteries will cause more world pollution than our actions are saving. But having looked closely at a lot of research that indicates the balance is in favour of green, I'm feeling smug about doing the right thing...

If I was resident in London, or indeed in any major conurbation I would probably be following a similar course. Living in the country and having the interests I do however, creates a whole range of different driving needs including towing two horses and occasionally agricultural materials, as well as the need for a serious off road capability. I have a large diesel SUV which fulfills this role. No electric, petrol hybrid or petrol vehicle even claims to compete.



There are probably adequate electrical charging points close to your home or you are able to charge at home and the elecric car journeys are probably relatively short.



It's all a question of horses for courses.



The only other point I would make is that there seems to be little mention of just how much more energy efficient diesel and petrol technology has become in the last twenty years. I have a 3 litre diesel Jaguar and am averaging 42 m.p.g. Unheard of 20 years ago. I recall back in the late eighties I had a BMW 735i (petrol) and it was always a small personal triumph to get to 20 m.p.g from a tank full.

[patman post]

We're going one electric (Madam's) and one hybrid (ours). Madam's previous car was petrol, the other was a diesel X5. Unfortunately, neither was old enough to qualify for the Mayor's London Resident's Scrappage Scheme. However, there are personal benefits: reduced resident's parking costs; no yearly road tax; and no congestion charge.

I guess that's encouraged us to play our part in cleaning up London's air. No doubt Jeremiahs will argue new cars and batteries will cause more world pollution than our actions are saving. But having looked closely at a lot of research that indicates the balance is in favour of green, I'm feeling smug about doing the right thing...

[papasmurf]

I have decided to run my diesel SUV into the ground ( I live in the country and need an SUV for towing and off road access) and am currently negotiating the purchase of a new petrol car. The market has a long way to go with only 8% of new vehicles sold being electric or hybrid.

I think you are wise, a friend just purchased a second hand diesel SUV in very good condition for £800.

[Major Sinic]

The study you cite seems to be based on info only up to 2015 — and the projections cited were compiled before "Dieselgate" hit.

Tesla seems to be ahead of its rivals — in the United States, it is outselling all its rivals combined in electric cars. In the luxury class. It even outsells combustion-engine series like the BMW 7-series, the Mercedes S-class and the Porsche Cayenne. The German auto industry appears to be behind in EVs.

China is the growth market for most other car manufacturers, but its economy has slowed and last year, the country imposed quotas on carmakers, requiring them to sell a percentage of hybrid and all-electric vehicles, or face heavy fines. German car manufacturers are among the most impacted, but Tesla could now be ideally poised to do deals with the Germans.

There may well be realignments, mergers, sell-outs, etc, witness PSA's takeover of GM's European activities. But Tesla doesn't seem the most vulnerable...

All fair comment. However Tesla'a margins are still paper thin, and its borrowings are even more unsustainable. It lost $700 million in the first quarter of 2019.



In my view, the major car makers led primarily by the Japanese will end up dominating the market and Tesla, if it survives, will become a niche marque. Personally I think 'dieselgate' has happened too early for the electric/hybrid industry sector to fully benefit. Capital costs of electric and hybrid technology are at a high premium. People are wary of long term reliability and residual values and above all there is a paucity of charging units indicating that petrol/hybrid's are really the only viable new technology option for longer distance motoring.



I have decided to run my diesel SUV into the ground ( I live in the country and need an SUV for towing and off road access) and am currently negotiating the purchase of a new petrol car. The market has a long way to go with only 8% of new vehicles sold being electric or hybrid.

[patman post]

There is rather more to running a business that carping on about the number of units sold at unsustainable margins. Tesla is a loss-making, over-indebted operation desperately borrowing in a bid to buy the time, which is rapidly running out, to improve its fortunes.



For those who would like to learn more including an opposing view to BELBB partisan view of this company, dip into the attached link. This is not an investment for Widows and Orphans and Wise Investors! It is ideal for those who find horse racing and roulette boring and unexciting!



https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/tesla_motors.pdf">https://www.economist.com/sites/default ... motors.pdf">https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/tesla_motors.pdf

The study you cite seems to be based on info only up to 2015 — and the projections cited were compiled before "Dieselgate" hit.

Tesla seems to be ahead of its rivals — in the United States, it is outselling all its rivals combined in electric cars. In the luxury class. It even outsells combustion-engine series like the BMW 7-series, the Mercedes S-class and the Porsche Cayenne. The German auto industry appears to be behind in EVs.

China is the growth market for most other car manufacturers, but its economy has slowed and last year, the country imposed quotas on carmakers, requiring them to sell a percentage of hybrid and all-electric vehicles, or face heavy fines. German car manufacturers are among the most impacted, but Tesla could now be ideally poised to do deals with the Germans.

There may well be realignments, mergers, sell-outs, etc, witness PSA's takeover of GM's European activities. But Tesla doesn't seem the most vulnerable...

[Major Sinic]

It probably doesn't matter in the long term - the risk friendly nature of US capitalism probably means that the work done by Tesla will be preserved even if that particular company doesn't survive.

Probably fair comment. Certainly Tesla'a undoubted contribution to battery technology and its many associated global patents will not be lost.

[papasmurf]

There are very some gifted British managers

The problem is they are a rarity. If all companies were run as well as JCB, the country would not be in the parlous state it is.

[Javert]

There is rather more to running a business that carping on about the number of units sold at unsustainable margins. Tesla is a loss-making, over-indebted operation desperately borrowing in a bid to buy the time, which is rapidly running out, to improve its fortunes.



For those who would like to learn more including an opposing view to BELBB partisan view of this company, dip into the attached link. This is not an investment for Widows and Orphans and Wise Investors! It is ideal for those who find horse racing and roulette boring and unexciting!



https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/tesla_motors.pdf">https://www.economist.com/sites/default ... motors.pdf">https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/tesla_motors.pdf

It probably doesn't matter in the long term - the risk friendly nature of US capitalism probably means that the work done by Tesla will be preserved even if that particular company doesn't survive.

[Major Sinic]

In 2014:



And in 2019:



This absolutely can't be pinned on "diesel" (but I bet some will try)



The battery makes up a huge portion of the total value of the car. The risk of A) tariffs on it moving to a plant in the EU or on the completed car and B) it's value not being counted as "EU" for exports to Japan, Korea etc was too great.



The prospect of the UK leaving SM/CU killed the plans for a Tesla base in the UK. This will be a major setback for the electric car (and by extension the car) industry in the UK.

There is rather more to running a business that carping on about the number of units sold at unsustainable margins. Tesla is a loss-making, over-indebted operation desperately borrowing in a bid to buy the time, which is rapidly running out, to improve its fortunes.



For those who would like to learn more including an opposing view to BELBB partisan view of this company, dip into the attached link. This is not an investment for Widows and Orphans and Wise Investors! It is ideal for those who find horse racing and roulette boring and unexciting!



https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/tesla_motors.pdf">https://www.economist.com/sites/default ... motors.pdf">https://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/tesla_motors.pdf

[patman post]

That would be the kiss of death.

There are very some gifted British managers — it's the investing community which claim immediate return that cause the problems. But I did say British recruited management, which could mean good people from overseas...

[papasmurf]

By "produce our own" I'm guessing you mean with British recruited management

That would be the kiss of death.

[patman post]

Just thinking aloud here but are there any British companies with plans to produce an electric car ?   The bidding  to produce a US ,European or Asian version in the UK is a bit lost on me personally .Why not produce our own ?

By "produce our own" I'm guessing you mean with British recruited management and employees working in British factories and, where possible, using British sourced components and materials.

If so, unless the UK can get favourable deals after Brexit, you may find parts of your wish. There could be large empty manufacturing plants and a supply of unemployed skilled workers, etc, as foreign owners leave for easier business climates...

[Streetwalker]

The issue with car building (and some other industries) is no one country is big enough to economically source all the components from.



You will always need to import parts.

So are you saying although we  ' lost ' the production of the Tesla to Germany the Germans are not economically big enough and will still have to import parts ?