Looking into a crystal ball

[cromwell]

like many of your other instincts, it's dead wrong.



I live here,  I'd be over the moon for this country to prosper.



If a coherent pan had been made showing how to make a country more prosperous and happy by making trade and travel to it's biggest and closest neighbors more difficult I'd feel a lot more confident that the UK might prosper.



Instead I just get "shut up you lost", "you should believe" and "it's remoaners fault"

A coherent pan eh!  I think you got yourself in a bit of a stew :-P

[GerryT]

Which will be rejected



I wonder what provisions Eire has made to a No deal or are they just hoping a basic and restrictive deal is accepted , How would Eire operate for instance if the UK restricts access to through traffic ?

.

[GerryT]

Why do you constantly feed us the EU line? We have heard it all direct from the horses mouth. You are just echoing it so that you sound brain washed.

What are you talking about  I outline how johnson has shot himself in the foot, hows that the EU line ??

[Borchester]

Why do you constantly feed us the EU line? We have heard it all direct from the horses mouth. You are just echoing it so that you sound brain washed.

Or dead  

[BeElBeeBub]

I get the feeling from so much of what you post that you would be quite pleased for the country to fail.

like many of your other instincts, it's dead wrong.



I live here,  I'd be over the moon for this country to prosper.



If a coherent pan had been made showing how to make a country more prosperous and happy by making trade and travel to it's biggest and closest neighbors more difficult I'd feel a lot more confident that the UK might prosper.



Instead I just get "shut up you lost", "you should believe" and "it's remoaners fault"

[T00ts]

Yes, the WA extension provision has a dead line of July. After that no extension is possible. I think it was deliberately done to prevent any last second brinkmanship. If no extension is requested by July then the transition definitely ends in December.  On current form it will be for something much worse.  Either the "Canada" deal with zero tariffs on most goods but checks at borders plus very little on services. Or the "Australia/Russia/No" deal (all the same thing) which will see tariffs imposed.





Either way will be a step change overnight and be disruptive.

I get the feeling from so much of what you post that you would be quite pleased for the country to fail.

[BeElBeeBub]

I think if an extension is being requested it has to be done by July, failing that the transition period ends end Dec. The way Johnson is doing things it's very unlikely he will ask for an extension before that deadline.

As for regulations, this is far more complicated to agree and 11 months is no where near enough time, it will be interesting to watch how that pans out.It would suggest a very simplistic agreement is most likely the outcome, but can be built on over the coming years.

The big question will be services which typically aren't covered under FTA's and are the major part of the UK economy, about 80%.

Yes, the WA extension provision has a dead line of July. After that no extension is possible. I think it was deliberately done to prevent any last second brinkmanship. If no extension is requested by July then the transition definitely ends in December.  On current form it will be for something much worse.  Either the "Canada" deal with zero tariffs on most goods but checks at borders plus very little on services. Or the "Australia/Russia/No" deal (all the same thing) which will see tariffs imposed.





Either way will be a step change overnight and be disruptive.

[GerryT]

I think the negotiations with the EU will end up as a compromise, leaving us better off than a no-deal Brexit but worse off than when we were in the EU.  As for EU regulations, the PM has said we won't align with them.  But in practice there's not a lot of point in not aligning with them if they make sense and make trade with the EU easier.  If there isn't agreement by the end of the year I expect the negotiations will be extended.  All that Brexit will have achieved will have been forcibly depriving the British people of their rights as EU citizens, a series of damage-limitation agreements with the EU and one or two token changes that pay lip service to 'taking back control'.

I think if an extension is being requested it has to be done by July, failing that the transition period ends end Dec. The way Johnson is doing things it's very unlikely he will ask for an extension before that deadline.

As for regulations, this is far more complicated to agree and 11 months is no where near enough time, it will be interesting to watch how that pans out.It would suggest a very simplistic agreement is most likely the outcome, but can be built on over the coming years.

The big question will be services which typically aren't covered under FTA's and are the major part of the UK economy, about 80%.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

I think the negotiations with the EU will end up as a compromise, leaving us better off than a no-deal Brexit but worse off than when we were in the EU.  As for EU regulations, the PM has said we won't align with them.  But in practice there's not a lot of point in not aligning with them if they make sense and make trade with the EU easier.  If there isn't agreement by the end of the year I expect the negotiations will be extended.  All that Brexit will have achieved will have been forcibly depriving the British people of their rights as EU citizens, a series of damage-limitation agreements with the EU and one or two token changes that pay lip service to 'taking back control'.

[GerryT]

Surely it doesn't really matter what BJ understands. Government is made up of many experts who will be advising and perhaps his 'misunderstanding' is part of the game that is currently being played out. He is in fact very highly intelligent so I doubt it but what he might be showing is this is not the problem that Ireland thinks it is. It's fair to say that it has been mentioned many times as a ploy built up by Varadkar to make the UK position as difficult as possible and while it suits the EU they will play along. I suspect that the moment they realise that the EU will really lose out if they lose us Ireland will become less important. I am sure you will refute that but time will tell. Of course it looks as though Varadkar's days are numbered. Things may well change.

You know my views on Johnson, but he seems to have a teflon affect in the UK. It's all most like after the event people script how his cunning worked through his outer bumbling self. The thing is it's no game, he should try dealing from the top of the deck and dealing with the problem at hand rather than playing to the media and concerning himself with his perceived image in the UK.



Your talking about the Irish border issue, or past issue now. Johnson has agreed with the EU to not put a border in Ireland, effectively keeping NI in the EU.

 That has now been signed into UK law, so really unless Johnson goes back on his agreement and changes the UK aw he has just agreed the NI issue is no longer a problem for ROI.  Varadkar had nothing to do with the GFA, that's long before he came into the picture. The EU wasn't going to have the UK break an international treaty with a EU member state, you don't understand what the EU is if that's what you think. The UK might do that, look how it's treating the 3 devolved govt's that have rejected Brexit, the railroading your talking about is being done by England to all other member states of the UK.

But if you want to see how the NI issue might have panned out keep a close eye on Gibraltar. It looks like Spain has an issue and the EU is backing them, Spain has being given the leading role in how the future relationship between EU/Gibrltar/UK will pan out.

Finally, as IRL probably most affected by Brexit within the EU, don't you think it's interesting that the EU has appointed the Irish man Phil Hogan to represent and lead the future trade deal talks between the EU/UK. I think that sends a clear message to Johnson.

[T00ts]

Not from anything it has done itself. The sea route does have risks, poor weather might hamper things, but getting goods in/out is not really registering as an issue to be tackled.

The biggest issue I think for Ireland will be Johnson's apparent "trump" like performance. He's signed into law the WA but seems to be under the illusion that there will be zero checks from GB to NI, how he doesn't know he's introduced a border down the Irish Sea is baffling. That is a big concern for the EU & Ireland as he seems to totally misunderstand what he signed up to in the WA. Potential for issues in 2021. More worrying is this an indication of how he will conduct the future trade talks ?

Surely it doesn't really matter what BJ understands. Government is made up of many experts who will be advising and perhaps his 'misunderstanding' is part of the game that is currently being played out. He is in fact very highly intelligent so I doubt it but what he might be showing is this is not the problem that Ireland thinks it is. It's fair to say that it has been mentioned many times as a ploy built up by Varadkar to make the UK position as difficult as possible and while it suits the EU they will play along. I suspect that the moment they realise that the EU will really lose out if they lose us Ireland will become less important. I am sure you will refute that but time will tell. Of course it looks as though Varadkar's days are numbered. Things may well change.

[GerryT]

Ah yes I remember which is an achievement in itself . But no I didn't want to go over it all again just saying that Eire could find itself  a long way from Europe

Not from anything it has done itself. The sea route does have risks, poor weather might hamper things, but getting goods in/out is not really registering as an issue to be tackled.

The biggest issue I think for Ireland will be Johnson's apparent "trump" like performance. He's signed into law the WA but seems to be under the illusion that there will be zero checks from GB to NI, how he doesn't know he's introduced a border down the Irish Sea is baffling. That is a big concern for the EU & Ireland as he seems to totally misunderstand what he signed up to in the WA. Potential for issues in 2021. More worrying is this an indication of how he will conduct the future trade talks ?

[Streetwalker]

We've covered this all ready.

Ah yes I remember which is an achievement in itself . But no I didn't want to go over it all again just saying that Eire could find itself  a long way from Europe

[GerryT]

Which will be rejected



I wonder what provisions Eire has made to a No deal or are they just hoping a basic and restrictive deal is accepted , How would Eire operate for instance if the UK restricts access to through traffic ?

We've covered this all ready. Ireland 3 yrs ago commissioned a number of freight carriers which are now in operation. The capacity of direct shipments from IRL to the EU is close to 80%

MV Celine and MV Laureline to name 2, Dublin part has completed a 30m expansion of it's customs and inspection facilities as Brexit will have an impact. The North side of the port is undergoing dredging to accommodate 2Km of these super carriers. These changes plus others at Cork port will allow 80% of all shipments go direct to the EU.



The TIR shipping convention of 1949 updated in 1959 and 1975 would allow Ireland to ship through the UK, but the issue the Irish see is if there is a hard crash out, even though IRL can ship through the UK the delays at UK ports would seriously affect business, direct shipping will become much more popular.



As for the UK restricting access, how would that work, the UK leaves the TIR treaty ? or is that more of the UK punishment of the Irish you are suggesting. It's bad enough that Priti Patel suggested starving the Irish to try remove the backstop, the UK has form in that area. Someone should have told priti that Ireland has always produced about twice the amount of food it consumes, poor priti isn't the smartest.

[Streetwalker]

The UK has departed so that bit is correct. But the one constant through this process is the ability of Johnson to lie. I doubt he even knows what he'll do at the end of the yr, but I would bet that he will take whatever deal is going. The unfortunate aspect of this is the time limit will only allow a basic and probably restrictive offer from the EU.

Which will be rejected



I wonder what provisions Eire has made to a No deal or are they just hoping a basic and restrictive deal is accepted , How would Eire operate for instance if the UK restricts access to through traffic ?