Excess Deaths Goes Negative

[patman post]

Does it seem unreasonable to suppose that because such large numbers of the population are generally taking more care of themselves, deaths from all causes could also be declining along with the fall in Covid-19 deaths...?

[BeElBeeBub]

An excellent rolling thread on the death numbers

https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1277887176806629382?s=19

Over the last five weeks, non-COVID deaths have been around 95% of the 5yr average. That's about the same as they were before the pandemic. So I'm not seeing any evidence supporting the idea that many of those who died during the COVID peak would otherwise have died around now.

Also note the number of CV deaths per week in mid June was about 750, significantly above 350.

Somebody's foxes will be getting fat.

[papasmurf]

I know some people think that is flippant but it really is a fact.

When you are at 90% risk of death if you catch it as I am, the comments on this forum  are flippant.

[Barry]

I can't do heights.

Not sure if that's meant to be a joke or just keep you at the top of the post count with a pointless post.

Anyway to the OP, the average life cut of the virus is 11 years according to the great and the learned, so by the time 2030 ish comes round the figures will be normal.
Unless of course there is a mass extinction caused by any other cause, like a radiation leak, a war, tsunami, asteroid or whatever.

This virus, I still consider a drop in the ocean on a global scale. I know some people think that is flippant but it really is a fact.

[papasmurf]

I feel the need to point out the reason the line has now gone negative is the COVID cull earlier in the year has reduced the number of coffin dodgers in the herd, so there are now fewer to shuffle off their perch for the rest of the year.

I can't do heights.

[johnofgwent]

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-ons-data-government-a4484016.html

The above is the first in my duckduckgo search for "ONS deaths 2020" there were others....


In summary.

Dig up (pun intended) the figures for registered deaths each week of Jan-Jun for all causes for the past five years

Plot a graph showing the "spread" (min and max) values of total recorded weekly deaths in those five years against week number.

Make a mental note of the fact that Easter and other Bank Holidays when registration offices are closed make a mess of some weeks, giving artificial falls and rises.

Now take this year's figures. Plot them.

Ooh look. The "excess deaths thanks to COVID19" has gone negative recently.

As a cynical life science graduate and mathematical modeller turned engineer, I feelthe need to point out the reason the line has now gone negative is the COVID cull earlier in the year has reduced the number of coffin dodgers in the herd, so there are now fewer to shuffle off their perch for the rest of the year.

But who has made these revelations ?

The ONS. You know, the publishers of the "science"