yoo-kay: Worst Recession, Death Toll in Europe, Dev'd Nations,

[Baff]

..

I went with 17%.
Which is the amount of EU GDP the UK creates (2018).


Let's have some fun with your number. 13%.
13% of 750 = 80 ish.
80ish = UK yearly trade with the EU.

UK yearly trade with the EU = bailout contribution. (ish).

So how about this one?
We give every exporter in the UK who sells to the EU a one year holiday on full pay.
And it costs the same.
The same as remaining in the EU would have.

They would have signed away one year of all these people's lives.
One year of their labour.
Just like that.
At a penstroke.

[Borg Refinery]

Fair enough, just wanted clarity.

For the record, I est'd it slightly higher.

But fair enough. I just like there to be some consensus is all.

As I said elsewhere, uncertainty really hurts economies, that's what we need. That's not what we have had from any Tory govt so far. Like papa says - Brexit is neutral, it's the negotiations that matter. I always said the Tories would mess them up, that's all.

And I didn't vote remain, I abstained for the record

[Baff]

Ok, if you say so. But the EU budget 2014-2020 was €1tn~, the new one is €1.8tn~.

Even if you doubled the 2019 net contribution (which is being generous to you), it is simply nowhere whatsoever near your figure.

Sorry Baff, but that is pretty clear to me now.

The EU wants to spend another 750 billion net.
Someone has to pay.
We pay 17% of everything the EU spends.
Every year.


Our share of that is loosely 150 billion.
Hundreds of billions.

We don't have money to loan to people.
We are in debt.

Is anyone in the UK doing a 1/8 trillion of trade with the EU?
I don't think they are.
We have to borrow this money which costs us money to lend it to people for free or for lower returns that we borrowed it at. Or just give it to them in exchange for nothing at all.
And we have to do it now. Today. When we are currently more shafted for money than we have been in sometime.

You can make it look smaller by describing it as a percentage, but 150 billion quid buys a lot.
And those fuckwits would have given it away and that is why we sacked them.
And will always sack them.


Thanks for humoring me by the way.
Totally appreciate and am learning from the cross examination.

[Borg Refinery]

..

[Borg Refinery]

Ok, if you say so. But the EU budget 2014-2020 was €1tn~, the new one is €1.8tn~.

Even if you doubled the 2019 net contribution (which is being generous to you), it is simply nowhere whatsoever near your figure.

Sorry Baff, but that is pretty clear to me now.

[Baff]

Heard it all before. Sorry.

I would have been willing to give you the benefit of the doubt and say that I could not disprove any of the figures.
That has long been my position.

That these are too spurious to be empirically proven either way.
Disputes will rage until the end of time.


But not any more.
COVID bailouts change the scale.

History has spoken in a way I could not have predicted.

What sounded unlikely but ultimately plausible in the past. Just sounds epicly ignorant today.

[Borg Refinery]

Ok but I suggest you look at a graph of our net contributions; the amount wavers considerably.

Our net contribution is roughly 10% of the budget which is way below Deutschland and France... https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budget_of_the_European_Union

Btw - "£7.9 billion net after public/private sector receipts" in 2019 according to Brexit Fact Base; prev. figures didn't include the private numbers.

So even IF you doubled that (in accordance with the budget increase, very roughly speaking) (remembering that OECD, IMF IFS etc say EU membership is worth up to 4% extra GDP) then it's still nowhere near your figure, not even slightly.

Plus, it helps protect us by suppressing C19 in poorer countries so that people don't spread it to us again.

And it is money recycled back into the budget with repayable loans.

Btw pretty sure we are the 3rd biggest net contributor, you're no 2 thing ..a bit out.

[Baff]

Total size of the EU bailour is 1,82 trillion.

No that's the whole EU budget for 7 years.

There is that 750 billion fund. Plus another 500 billion fund and presumable another still.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/the-eu-budget/long-term-eu-budget-2021-2027/

Our contributions last year were net 9.4bn.

EU budget 2014-2020 was €1,082.5 billion
The EU has a long-term budget of €1,082.5 billion for the period 2014–2020.

I am happy to concede that the number given as our potential contribution if we were still members of... 780 bill seems spurious.

I got you wrong, thought you were ref'ing the €3bn 'emergency instrument' hence the £300m comment.

I apologize.

But once you use your own figures, as i have just done.
It still puts you in the same ballpark.

100's of billions down.

Addressed above.

And I'm sorry but the possible losses of Brexit are worst case 80 billion per year in the event of total EU trade sanctions.
Taken to absolute ridiculum, it's still not in the same ballpark.


There simply is no possible way you can spin these figures that will cover that disparity. Wrong scale.
It's too vast.

Nope, you clearly didn't read post #63.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/uk-and-eu-clash-over-british-share-of-covid-fund/amp/

I had no idea you were referring to something different, so those are not 'remainer numbers' or my numbers in response to the larger budget. They are in respinse to the €3bn emergency support instrument.

My bad for misconstruing you.

However, you are completely off kilter here.

It's hundreds of billions of pounds we just saved by leaving the EU.
Anyway you try and spin it.
We just dodged a bullet way bigger than any losses from Brexit possible.


P.S. Politico is a clear remainer news source. Activists for remain.
Nothing unbias about those boys.
Those figures are entirely remainer.


Apply your own common sense to them.
Would the number 2 contributor to a 750 billion bailout only be paying 1/3 of a % of the costs?

Without even factoring in that none of that 750 is earmarked for them. We can already see this is bollocks.

[Borg Refinery]

Total size of the EU bailour is 1,82 trillion.

No that's the whole EU budget for 7 years.

There is that 750 billion fund. Plus another 500 billion fund and presumable another still.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/the-eu-budget/long-term-eu-budget-2021-2027/

Our contributions last year were net 9.4bn.

EU budget 2014-2020 was €1,082.5 billion
The EU has a long-term budget of €1,082.5 billion for the period 2014–2020.

I am happy to concede that the number given as our potential contribution if we were still members of... 780 bill seems spurious.

I got you wrong, thought you were ref'ing the €3bn 'emergency instrument' hence the £300m comment.

I apologize.

But once you use your own figures, as i have just done.
It still puts you in the same ballpark.

100's of billions down.

Addressed above.

And I'm sorry but the possible losses of Brexit are worst case 80 billion per year in the event of total EU trade sanctions.
Taken to absolute ridiculum, it's still not in the same ballpark.


There simply is no possible way you can spin these figures that will cover that disparity. Wrong scale.
It's too vast.

Nope, you clearly didn't read post #63.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/uk-and-eu-clash-over-british-share-of-covid-fund/amp/

I had no idea you were referring to something different, so those are not 'remainer numbers' or my numbers in response to the larger budget. They are in respinse to the €3bn emergency support instrument.

My bad for misconstruing you.

However, you are completely off kilter here.

[Baff]

I assumed you were referring to this, by the way, which is completely different to the stuff you are talking about.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/uk-and-eu-clash-over-british-share-of-covid-fund/amp/

Yes, I saw that when I was trying find out where you got your figures from.

[Sheepy]

Total size of the EU bailour is 1,82 trillion.

There is that 750 billion fund. Plus another 500 billion fund and presumable another still.

I am happy to concede that the number given as our potential contribution if we were still members of... 780 bill seems spurious.


But once you use your own figures, as i have just done.
It still puts you in the same ballpark.

100's of billions down.

And I'm sorry but the possible losses of Brexit are worst case 80 billion per year in the event of total EU trade sanctions.
Taken to absolute ridiculum, it's still not in the same ballpark.


There simply is no possible way you can spin these figures that will cover that disparity.
It's too vast.
Wrong scale.

Well it was fairly obvious where it was heading when the EU came out with a shared debt, good luck with that.

[Baff]

Total size of the EU bailout is 1.82 trillion.

There is that 750 billion fund. Plus another 500 billion fund and presumably another still.

I am happy to concede that the number given as our potential contribution if we were still members of... 780 bill seems spurious.
Most likely the highest possible figure they felt comfortable giving it as. Perhaps gross not net etc.


But once you use your own figures, as I have just done.
It still puts you in the same ballpark.

100's of billions down.

And I'm sorry but the possible losses of Brexit are worst case 80 billion per year in the event of total EU trade sanctions.
Taken to absolute ridiculum, it's still not in the same ballpark.


There simply is no possible way you can spin these figures that will cover that disparity. Wrong scale.
It's too vast.


We have our answer.
We know who was right. We know who was wrong and we also know that those who were wrong weren't just a little bit wrong, they were full on pants on head wrong.

[Borg Refinery]

Um, you wrote..

"
I think our contributions to the EU COVID bailout scheme would have been £780 billion if we had still been a member."

That's not even the size of the COVID fund total itself, which is €750bn, Baff.

You are making 0 sense.

Look, even out of that fund, most of it is repayable loans, only €390bn is grants.

So honestly, you won't link any sources, you cite the daily express and unnamed economist. What can be said?

[Baff]

200-300m net?
As non members perhaps.

Even little old Ireland is to be 16 billion out of pocket over it.
Can't even put a figure on how much Germany will have to pay.

The EU have agreed a 1.82 Trillion fund.
This will be paid by the only people it can be. The net contributors.
Of which there are only 9 and of which we were the number 2 contributor.

So we pay in more than we take out. Add our own UK baliouts to the 1.82 trillion and then take them away again as we are self funding them.
And the amount that needs to be made up is enough for the 18 other countries who won't be self funding theirs.

With numbers like this, I don't even have to be close to accurate for it to be clear how insanely bad for the economy EU membership is.


Let's put this in perspective. The EU have set aside 5 billion for Brexit damage bailouts.
The 4 billion they expect that we require for Brexit vs the second largest contribution to 1.8 trillion.
Remoaners are out on their maths by a factor of about 1,000 times. Lol.
My margin for error is so vast. The enormity of the stupid involved in Remain economics is made clear.



200-300 million.

ROFL LMAO. 
Now your maths is out by a factor of around 1,000,000+ .
I strongly suggest you find better sources.
Very strongly recommend this.



This story was all over Youtube when it broke.
Doubtless The Express will have had it.
Probably the Torygraph.

Remoaner news will be ignoring it as hard as they can.

I didn't pay it much attention when it broke.
But about a week a go a remoaning Cambridge economist gave this to me as his reason for changing to pro Brexit.
And he has a point.

Up until then I had expected the economic arguments to be unquantifiable.
Unprovable.

And he changed my mind.
The scale of the COVID bailuts we just dodged simply blows even the most doom mongering Brexit prediction right out of the water by factors of about 1,000.

Um... the entire EU budget is €1.82tn over 7 years. Lol. The 'covid fund' is €750bn and doesn't work at all in the way you've just made out.

No offence Baff, but I think your disbelief over the numbers being so out is because you've missed out some very key pieces of info...

No offence, my numbers may be out by multiples of 1, 2, 3 and even 5.
I freely admit.
Remainers are out by multiples of 1,000s.

Economics is not an empiric science. But my margin for error is astoundingly accurate compared to theirs.

I can be considerably wrong, but theirs aren't even in the ballpark.
No where near it. Not even in the same country as it.


The economic costs (or even benefits) are a storm in a teacup compared to the COVID bill EU membership would have had us paying.
10ths of a percent.

My numbers can all be out by 500% and still correctly lead to the same conclusion.
That we just saved hundreds of billions.



This one is done.
Debate is over. I can't argue the other side of it any more.
It is wrong. Simple as that.

[Baff]

Report to Moderator    Logged
"Caedite eos. Novit enim Dominus qui sunt eius."

Who turned out to be way bigger idiots than we had previously guessed.

The £350 million was and is still a lie.
https://fullfact.org/europe/350-million-week-boris-johnson-statistics-authority-misuse/

Claim
After leaving the EU, we will take back control of roughly £350 million per week.

Conclusion
This is wrong, it's more like £250 million a week. In any case the impact on the economy from changes to trade after leaving the EU is likely to be far bigger than savings from the UK's membership fee.

I disagree.
Judging by the Brexit bailout fund the EU has prepared for the EU, it is likely to be around 1/3 of our yearly EU contributions of the past.

The red bus is correct. The exact number may be disputed. The broad one is not.
We would take back control of 350 million and no one lied when they said so.

And all the other stuff you conclude is nothing more than a prejudiced guess.

Boris Johnson wins court challenge over claims he lied about Brexit delivering £350m for the NHS
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-06-07/boris-johnson-wins-court-challenge-over-claims-he-lied-about-brexit-delivering-350m-for-the-nhs