Facts about Covid-19

[T00ts]

I've had another thought at the attempts to slow the infection. If we are concerned now more about the economy it would pay us perhaps to slow down the number of people at home sick and therefore not at work. There was talk at the beginning I seem to remember of as many as a third(?) of the workforce being off sick at a time.

[Borchester]

Using the word "guesswork" is quite misleading. 

No it ain't. Shit data produces shit results.

[T00ts]

Perhaps the wimps have been raised over quite a number of years. Covid has just been the catalyst to expose them.

But not that long ago, you were posting on here that you were staying in the house and about all the precautions you were taking.  Surely if you agree with these sentiments you should just be ignoring the rules and going about your normal business?

You are right and sadly it looks as though I will be housebound again before long. My comment was directed at the thought that the wimps were created only by Covid. Wimps would have surfaced whatever the 'threat'.

[Javert]

Perhaps the wimps have been raised over quite a number of years. Covid has just been the catalyst to expose them.

But not that long ago, you were posting on here that you were staying in the house and about all the precautions you were taking.  Surely if you agree with these sentiments you should just be ignoring the rules and going about your normal business?

[Javert]

How many fit and healthy 20-something year olds has coronavirus actually killed then?

Almost none, but they can then pass the virus on to older people who are much more at risk.

Also, just because they don't die, doesn't mean they are not badly impacted - quite a high percentage of people who have the virus are still not back to normal after many months, and there is some possibility that they will never get back to normal - we don't know yet.

Also, I'm not sure why the probability of being killed by a bus is always used as the example - the number of people killed by being run over by a bus each year in the UK is in low single digits.

Well, your statisticians are right when they say that crap data produces crap results, but while not wishing to insult your friends, I find it hard to accept that they believe that any form of extrapolation is anything more than guesswork.

They are not my friends, but I'm talking about people like Professor David Spiegelhalter, who has a doctrate in these kind of things and it's his actual full time job of him and his team to look at these issues. 

Using the word "guesswork" is quite misleading.  Of course, all statistical forecasts can be described as guesswork, but this then invites you to conclude that a random number would be just as likely to be accurate.  This is not true - these models are always monitored and adjusted according to the most recent data.

As I've also mentioned already, the daily headline test information that the media generally quotes is completely misleading and has all sorts of issues, and many of the reasons for that are pointed out above.

Fundamentally, the experts in tracking Covid-19 are 100% certain that it has now moved back into exponential rise in the UK - you can argue over what the doubling time is whether it's 7 days or 10 days or whatever, but if it's in exponential rise that is a major problem and without further behaviour changes we will see daily deaths back in the hundreds per day before the end of next month.

The idea that it doesn't matter because younger people aren't affected or it's less dangerous to them than other risky activities, ignores the risk of them infecting older people.

This is fundamentally the same issue that's been faced by all governments and rulers since human society was invented - individuals want to be free to do whatever they want. 

However, individuals also don't want their lives to be negatively impacted by the actions of other individuals who are just "doing whatever they want".

Obviously there has to be some balance, because if we just literally took the former case as the black and white truth, we would have to abolish all laws and have anarchy, because by definition, pretty much all criminal laws are put in place to prevent one person from doing things that negatively impact on other people. 

In this case, the question is, should young people have the liberty to do whatever they want, even if they then infect an older person with Coronavirus who then dies?

Should every be able to do whatever they want, even if they end up filling up the hospitals to 100% capacity, and then other sick people who have not behaved in an inconsiderate way, end up dead because they can't get a hospital bed or treatment.

This is always a balance - for example if we reduced the speed limit on all roads to 20mph and enforced it fully, we could cut annual road deaths to almost zero, so we actively choose to accept a small number of deaths in order to get around more quickly.

[Borchester]

It's funny.

It's often the same people who declare that we are all wimps for not rushing out and getting CV that shit themselves silly over a few dingys of brown people or somebody speaking polish in the supermarket.

Pardon my saying so belly, but you seem to lead a very sheltered life. Most supermarkets in my part of the world are run by brown people, while most of the customers speak Polish because they know that no one trusts a Roma, especially other Romas.

Where is this strange, all white enclave in which you live belly? Do they still have pass laws and statues of Hendrik Verwoerd?

[papasmurf]

One common thread I am seeing from the anti-lockdown brigade is a lack of empathy.

You know bus drivers were disproportionately affected in the early part of the pandemic.

Maybe spending all day driving around selfish old gits who refuse to inconvenience themselves by wearing a mask because they think rules don't apply to them makes you a bit apprehensive.

The non mask wearers are a cross section of ages, I have no time for them harsh enforcement is long overdue, even if that means putting armed guards on public transport. (Those exempt from masks should be issued with a photo ID lanyard badge.)

[BeElBeeBub]

It's funny.

It's often the same people who declare that we are all wimps for not rushing out and getting CV that shit themselves silly over a few dingys of brown people or somebody speaking polish in the supermarket.

[T00ts]

Prof Spiegelhalter puts it well: The risk to individuals isn't large but the risk to society is.

He is right there.

I got on the bus the other day and the driver had a mask, one of those thin welding masks and a look on his face as if to say I am shit scared of everything. The impulse to ask if such a poor, timid sod should be driving a bus was pretty near irresistible. But I didn't, because I am such a good bloke.

But Belly is right. This nonsense is turning us into a nation of wimps.

Perhaps the wimps have been raised over quite a number of years. Covid has just been the catalyst to expose them.

[BeElBeeBub]

One common thread I am seeing from the anti-lockdown brigade is a lack of empathy.

You know bus drivers were disproportionately affected in the early part of the pandemic.

Maybe spending all day driving around selfish old gits who refuse to inconvenience themselves by wearing a mask because they think rules don't apply to them makes you a bit apprehensive.

Quick question for the anti mask gang.

Presumably spitting in the street is 100% ok with them. After all, having to cough into a hankie is a bit of an inconvenience, it's far easier just to spit on the street/bus seat next to me/shop floor and I'm in no danger of catching anything from my own spit!

[papasmurf]

I got on the bus the other day and the driver had a mask, one of those thin welding masks and a look on his face as if to say I am shit scared of everything.

Give the nastiness bus/coach drivers are having to put up with from passengers, I would want a Porton suit and an automatic pistol before I would drive a bus/coach.

[Borchester]

Prof Spiegelhalter puts it well: The risk to individuals isn't large but the risk to society is.

He is right there.

I got on the bus the other day and the driver had a mask, one of those thin welding masks and a look on his face as if to say I am shit scared of everything. The impulse to ask if such a poor, timid sod should be driving a bus was pretty near irresistible. But I didn't, because I am such a good bloke.

But Belly is right. This nonsense is turning us into a nation of wimps.

[BeElBeeBub]

Ah, the man who when asked a simple question, hides the simple answer that the threat posed by Coronavirus is vastly over exaggerated hype behind a wall of meaningless figures

again the point is sailing way over your head.

The 28 day data is underestimating the number of deaths *despite* his (Nick's) valid point about the bus victims.

As for the risk of death to young people.

It is low, it has always been low.

In fact the risk of death to *everyone* equates to an approximate doubling of their risk of dying in the next 12 months.

If you are a young person with a risk of death in the thousands this increment of risk is not that concerning

If your risk is in the 10's it's obviously of more concern

This is putting aside the risk of "long Covid" which seems to be around 5% even in low risk groups (eg young people)

Prof Spiegelhalter puts it well: The risk to individuals isn't large but the risk to society is.

[T00ts]

I knew the answer straight away. None!

I would have licked them off!

You know by now you should be careful what you say to me 

Behave!

[Barry]

I knew the answer straight away. None!

I would have licked them off!

Nice!