LOCKDOWN 2 - the November experience

[patman post]

∆∆∆
So no border caulis over Christmas, then...?

[johnofgwent]

Moving ever so slightly back onto the topic,

https://www.legislation.gov.uk/wsi/2020/1219/pdfs/wsi_20201219_en.pdf
welsh border to remain closed until Feb 19th 2021

[T00ts]

There appears tp have been no big swedes or cauliflowers for a long time.

We digress - but I am not sure the weather was good for produce this year.

[papasmurf]

Now that's funny. You have got a sense of humour! 

There appears tp have been no big swedes or cauliflowers for a long time.

[T00ts]

If you can buy one big enough.

Now that's funny. You have got a sense of humour! 

[papasmurf]

So whether its total lockdown until beat, or let the devil run free and take the hindmost, is down to people to decide.

It is an emergency situation, it is up to the government to decide.  The number of fruit cakes and looney tunes who don't understand what an emergency is is frankly frightening.

[Sampanviking]

Having posted that video, do we assume you are in favour of a Draconian lockdown, supporting the guy in the video?

It's funny how opinions change with time.

I think I'll stick with the Swedes.

Better understanding of the facts can lead to a change of opinion. But it is more a case of lets do one or the other and do it right, rather than do a half hearted effort that only delivers the worst of both worlds. Our current measures are intended to save lives, stop the virus and protect the economy and have failed dismally on all fronts. So whether its total lockdown until beat, or let the devil run free and take the hindmost, is down to people to decide.

[papasmurf]

I think I'll stick with the Swedes.

If you can buy one big enough.

[Sheepy]

Well on a different note, but not so different, the Pentagon and or the CIA as well as the other 17 American intelligence agencies like a President who doesn't rock their boat but instead floats it.

[Barry]

Kirk Kingsland (Gweilo 60) tells it like it is for if you want to beat the virus and shows us the everyday life in Nanning for contrast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfMUSkT1mkc

Having posted that video, do we assume you are in favour of a Draconian lockdown, supporting the guy in the video?

It's funny how opinions change with time.

So the Flu is both more infectious and contagious and leads to the death; directly or indirectly of many thousands of people in the UK each year. This Coronovirus is however more virulent, which means that you are at a greater individual risk, should you catch it.

I still say that the flu or Norovirus poses a greater threat to most people than Coronovirus.

It all smacks of blatant scaremongering and just a little racism. The BBC were calling it the "Chinese Virus" this morning. Must admit I was unaware that a virus could have a nationality.

I think I'll stick with the Swedes.

[Sampanviking]

Kirk Kingsland (Gweilo 60) tells it like it is for if you want to beat the virus and shows us the everyday life in Nanning for contrast.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfMUSkT1mkc

[BeElBeeBub]

Good glad we settled that then . So we can dismiss this statement of yours here then....

1% is a perfectly valid figure. It fits with the overall death rate and estimated infections in the UK.

The reason there is no single figure is because IFR varies per person. For a fit 20yo womwn it's way (way) below 1%

For a 75yo man it's way above 1%

You dont know the true IFR , because we are working with incomplete data. You dont know fully who has had the virus , and who hasnt , and we dont know who has died of the virus , of if the virus merely played a minor role in the persons death or no role at all.

the death certificates sort that out. The clinicians put down the cause of death. "Died with" deaths aren't counted in the same way that a HIV +ve person who fell off a ladder isn't put down as dying of AIDS

The ONS death statistics are the best measure albeit slightly time delayed.

You are right that we have to estimate the number of infections but even then we have reasonable tools for doing so.  Antibody tests, random sampling and the symptom trackers all take different approaches to measuring the total infections and give us an idea of what the range is.

We don't need to know the exact number only a plausible range

If between 3m and 6m people have had it that gives a current IFR of 0.88-1.7%.

0.2% is very unlikely as is 4%

We have discussed this since march on the forum , on many threads  regarding covid on death certificates , and people being put down as a covid death.

this is the standard argument of those who seek to muddy the waters. See above

What do you mean "we"?

Each uk nation has its own test and trace system , and scotland and northern ireland dont even use the same app or technology as the english /welsh one.

So if you are saying in England the tories have massively screwed this up....why isnt labour run wales doing any better ?

...and  i take it all the countries outside the uk who are having second waves or whatever you want to call it have the same issue?

Serco isnt involved in scotland northern ireland nor wales contact tracing systems.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-scotlands-route-map-supporting-evidence-30-july-review/pages/3/

By "we" I mean the UK in general. The Serco.system is doing particularly badly. I believe the local NHS systems are doing much better
But then the isolation compliance rate are poor more or less across the board (unless you have some evidence otherwise).

Europe in general seems to be struggling. I believe the French system isn't great

And by doing badly, I mean in comparison to other countries that seem to have got a much better handle on things.

As a point of interest is saw an interesting piece on a basic difference between alot of European T&T systems and Asian ones.

Basically the euro ones concentrate on finding people you might have infected, but don't concentrate on finding who might have infected you.

Asian ones also focus on finding who infected you and then tracing their contacts.

Because most people don't infect anyone else, chasing everyone's potential "victims" is likely to lead to a lot of unnecessary isolations as the there is a good chance a given person won't infect anyone anyway

On the other hand if you can find the person who infected younyou know they are at least a little bit infectious and are likely to have infected more people.

If you can do this quick enough you can get to everyone in the cluster before the next "burst".

I didn't explain that brilliantly but it was an interesting difference that seemed to make sense given the "over dispersion" of infections.

[Thomas]

There is no single figure for IFR

Good glad we settled that then . So we can dismiss this statement of yours here then....

The 1% figure has been fairly settled since march. It was mentioned back in the earliest briefings.

You dont know the true IFR , because we are working with incomplete data. You dont know fully who has had the virus , and who hasnt , and we dont know who has died of the virus , of if the virus merely played a minor role in the persons death or no role at all.

We have discussed this since march on the forum , on many threads  regarding covid on death certificates , and people being put down as a covid death.

A huge element is the test and trace infrastructure - and we have massively screwed that up

What do you mean "we"?

Each uk nation has its own test and trace system , and scotland and northern ireland dont even use the same app or technology as the english /welsh one.

So if you are saying in England the tories have massively screwed this up....why isnt labour run wales doing any better ?

...and  i take it all the countries outside the uk who are having second waves or whatever you want to call it have the same issue?

We? Serco has massively screwed up.

YES

Serco isnt involved in scotland northern ireland nor wales contact tracing systems.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-scotlands-route-map-supporting-evidence-30-july-review/pages/3/

[BeElBeeBub]

Just a general point on the proportion of asymptomatic cases - which pops up from time to time

The best estimates for the % of people who are truly asymptomatic (they never get any symptoms) as opposed to pre/post-symptomatic (they haven't got symptoms today but might have them in future/have had them in the past) is 23% (95CI 16-30)

This again makes it unlikely that a significant proportion of the population has had CV already and just not noticed it.

Link to the report here

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3ct0py6

I highly recommend the "more or less series" of pod casts for getting a really good feel for the numbers.

[BeElBeeBub]

We? Serco has massively screwed up.

YES