Tier 6

[Barry]

I've been monitoring the government tests and about a week ago 1 in 8 tests, 12.5% were positive.
Today it is about 1 in 11 tests positive, 9.2%.

Also hospital admissions are declining in London and the South East, so where is the justification for extra measures?

This is now down to 6.7%. (1 in 15 people being tested)

[Scott777]

Switzerland & Germany?

Isn't is to be expected that total death rates would noticeably fall, year on year, over two decades so that the yearly average over that time would be higher than over the most recent five years?

I suggest that is why it's most meaningful to compare the average over recent years with current 12-month periods, and not averages containing data from long ago...

I would not expect death rates to fall year on year forever.  In the UK, death rates per capita have slowly increased since 2011.

[patman post]

Switzerland & Germany?

Isn't is to be expected that total death rates would noticeably fall, year on year, over two decades so that the yearly average over that time would be higher than over the most recent five years?

I suggest that is why it's most meaningful to compare the average over recent years with current 12-month periods, and not averages containing data from long ago...

[Scott777]

I assumed that as this was a Covid related thread all stats were/would be Covid related unless otherwise stated. Apologies — I had not intended to confuse.

Here's something:
A simple look at the respective figures for Norway and Sweden as two countries that are fairly comparable as regards population size and regions reveals the highly significant differences in excess mortality that might well be attributed to the lockdown measures introduced in Norway.

A snapshot from:
https://www.efta.int/Publications/news/COVID-19-Excess-Mortality-Selected-European-Countries-521261

No worries.  The problem with this info is that it seems unreliable, making some basic mistakes, such as not providing a comprehensible key to the graph.  What country is CH?  And what is DE?  To be honest, I'm not sure it's worth the internet page it was posted on.  It clearly doesn't account for population growth, and why average over 5 years?  As I have pointed out, the average over 20 years is very different.

[patman post]

Your link shows Covid deaths, not total deaths.  You mentioned "the death rate per capita in Sweden".  Did you mean Covid death rate per capita?

I assumed that as this was a Covid related thread all stats were/would be Covid related unless otherwise stated. Apologies — I had not intended to confuse.

Here's something:
A simple look at the respective figures for Norway and Sweden as two countries that are fairly comparable as regards population size and regions reveals the highly significant differences in excess mortality that might well be attributed to the lockdown measures introduced in Norway.

A snapshot from:
https://www.efta.int/Publications/news/COVID-19-Excess-Mortality-Selected-European-Countries-521261

[Scott777]

If you're unable to access Statista, try
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/

It covers more than Europe, but you'll get an answer...

Your link shows Covid deaths, not total deaths.  You mentioned "the death rate per capita in Sweden".  Did you mean Covid death rate per capita?

[patman post]

If you're unable to access Statista, try
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/

It covers more than Europe, but you'll get an answer...

[Scott777]

Perhaps you shouldn't keep logged on to RT:
in descending numbers of deaths/100k in the EEA —
Luxembourg, Romania, Poland, Austria, Portugal, Netherlands, Lithuania, Slovakia, Greece, Ireland, Malta, Germany, Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, Cyprus, Finland, Norway, Iceland...

This doesn't help.  Which country is several times less than Sweden?  Can you provide any link that I can read?

[patman post]

I can't read the Reuters article.  Which country is several times less than Sweden?

Perhaps you shouldn't keep logged on to RT:
in descending numbers of deaths/100k in the EEA —
Luxembourg, Romania, Poland, Austria, Portugal, Netherlands, Lithuania, Slovakia, Greece, Ireland, Malta, Germany, Latvia, Denmark, Estonia, Cyprus, Finland, Norway, Iceland...

[Scott777]

The death rate per capita in Sweden, which avoided harsh lockdowns, is several times higher than that of its Nordic neighbours but lower than several European countries that opted for lockdowns.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-cases/sweden-reports-record-daily-number-of-covid-19-deaths-but-infection-rate-may-have-peaked-idUSKBN29J1NZ

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/

I can't read the Reuters article.  Which country is several times less than Sweden?

[Sampanviking]

streetwalker i agree with the general sentiment of your post , but can i just say i dont agree with this recurring theme that the virus has spread because of covid idiots and all the other names being bandied about.

If you read what the likes of professor devi sridhar has said time and again , instead of the media hysteria and name calling , the virus by its very nature will spread and infect naturally.

Devi Sridhar has been emphasising since last march that you can lock down , follow all the rules you like , but the virus will not go away contrary to what certain individuals and media say.

People then cast up places like new zealand and point to what jacinda ardern has done. New zealand have indeed stopped the virus in their country , but they havent elmininated it......everytime a foreigner comes into the country they potentially bring the virus with them as the virus hasnt gone away.

New zealand is sparsely popualted (on a par with scotland) and if im not mistaken the size of the british isles , but with tasmania and oz , they are thousands of miles away from large popualtion centres , unlike us who have europe and hundreds of millions on our doorstep.

So small sparsely popualted remote nations may have a chance of stopping the virus in their locality , but if no vaccine came about , they would be at the mercy of covid forevermore as the good professor says until eventuallly one way or the other the virus had infected everyone on the planet and some form of immunity had been bult up.

The lockdowns for us were only about buying time , not eliminating the threat of the virus , and most people contrary to media hysteria have been spot on following rules.

Places of large popualtion centres like london  and glasgow as well are no comparison....how the feck do city dwellers avoid spreading the virus compared to some remote moutain village in new zealand?

Im not having a pop mate , but i would rather take my chance with the virus than spend the rest of my life locked down. Thats not a life , its a feckin existence.

Sad watching old folk in their last years spend the final months of their lives in misery dubbed up .

I agree with you on a lot of this, bar one significant point. Yes A Nationwide Lockdown will not make the virus go away, but done properly, it can halt transmission and make it die it that country. That country of course remains vulnerable to reintroduction from abroad, so as long as the country is quarantined internationally, life can return to something very close to normal, while the vaccines are being administered. This is exactly what we have seen in Far Eastern countries big and small and where population densities are high and largely urban.

[patman post]

I'm not sure we have seen this at all.  We cannot assume the measures did anything to stop the virus in the east.  We can see from Sweden that the virus had little effect on total death.

The death rate per capita in Sweden, which avoided harsh lockdowns, is several times higher than that of its Nordic neighbours but lower than several European countries that opted for lockdowns.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-cases/sweden-reports-record-daily-number-of-covid-19-deaths-but-infection-rate-may-have-peaked-idUSKBN29J1NZ

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111779/coronavirus-death-rate-europe-by-country/

[Scott777]

Defeating a Pandemic is not an Ideological debate. There are measures that work and those that don't. Those that do are worth doing, does that don't, are a waste of time and money.

We have seen what it needs
a) A Government prepared to install and enforce strong enough measures to stop the spread of infection.
b) A population mature enough to understand that abiding to the spirit of the rules is a necessity.

Some counties; mainly in the east, have done this and are now living almost normal lives again
Others, mainly in the West, have failed and are still in a mess.

I'm not sure we have seen this at all.  We cannot assume the measures did anything to stop the virus in the east.  We can see from Sweden that the virus had little effect on total death.

[Scott777]

The bottom line here is do you accept the world has been hit by a pandemic or not and do you believe that the vaccines are the way out ?   Im a yes on both ,I guess your a No .
Look I dont like it any more than you do ,the cost in financial terms that will take a generation to put right ,the cancellation of cancer and other life saving treatments  has been a terrible downside to saving covid patients .
Democracy is of course important but I fail to see why you feel its threatened  . The vaccines are being rolled out ,the light is at the end of the tunnel and we just need to hang on in there for maybe a few more months and we can all put this behind us and get back to some sort of normality .

Most countries locked down in one way or another ,ours was weak and vague , Sweden decided not to . They have had better results than some and worse than others . The demography of different  countries obviously plays a part as does the mindset of the population in either keeping safe or ignoring the advice .

To be honest   seeing government restrictions  during  a pandemic as some sort of power grab by the global elites and the end of our democratic rights is the reasoning of conspiracy theorists .

Be careful out there .

Yep, you're right, it depends on whether there's a big bad wolf.  Do you recall WMDs - which we were told were definitely a threat?  Can you not see how many false claims and deceptions they have made so far?

Imperial College modelling predicted 100,000 deaths in Sweden by June.  They have now had only 7,000 deaths above the average, in all of 2020.  However, taking account of population growth, the deaths in 2010 was 9.7 per 1000.  In 2020 it was 9.3 per 1000.  It has gone down!

And as for power grab, it would be a conspiracy theory if I said it was a globally planned power grab, but I don't think it is.  However, it is certainly an opportunistic power grab, which did not necessarily involve any conspiracy at all.

https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2021/01/04/sweden-will-have-a-lower-death-rate-in-2020-than-it-had-in-2010/

[Streetwalker]

streetwalker i agree with the general sentiment of your post , but can i just say i dont agree with this recurring theme that the virus has spread because of covid idiots and all the other names being bandied about.

If you read what the likes of professor devi sridhar has said time and again , instead of the media hysteria and name calling , the virus by its very nature will spread and infect naturally.

Devi Sridhar has been emphasising since last march that you can lock down , follow all the rules you like , but the virus will not go away contrary to what certain individuals and media say.

People then cast up places like new zealand and point to what jacinda ardern has done. New zealand have indeed stopped the virus in their country , but they havent elmininated it......everytime a foreigner comes into the country they potentially bring the virus with them as the virus hasnt gone away.

New zealand is sparsely popualted (on a par with scotland) and if im not mistaken the size of the british isles , but with tasmania and oz , they are thousands of miles away from large popualtion centres , unlike us who have europe and hundreds of millions on our doorstep.

So small sparsely popualted remote nations may have a chance of stopping the virus in their locality , but if no vaccine came about , they would be at the mercy of covid forevermore as the good professor says until eventuallly one way or the other the virus had infected everyone on the planet and some form of immunity had been bult up.

The lockdowns for us were only about buying time , not eliminating the threat of the virus , and most people contrary to media hysteria have been spot on following rules.

Places of large popualtion centres like london  and glasgow as well are no comparison....how the feck do city dwellers avoid spreading the virus compared to some remote moutain village in new zealand?

Im not having a pop mate , but i would rather take my chance with the virus than spend the rest of my life locked down. Thats not a life , its a feckin existence.

Sad watching old folk in their last years spend the final months of their lives in misery dubbed up .

And I pretty much agree  ,the lockdown for what it was worth  has brought us the time most of the elderly needed . They  are now getting vaccinated their last months now have the chance of being their last years .
I was pretty much of the same thought that  the lockdown was a cure that was worse than the decease but for me the vaccines have changed that .

We just need a little bit more of that time we have paid for .    (feck me I need a pint )