The Prediction Thread

[Nick]

Really?
your humour is boundless,a bit like your faith in the tories....misplaced as it is.

You don't think Covid and Putin have wrecked the economies of the world then?

[cromwell]

The perfect storm, Covid dovetailed with Putin and given a kick by Liz has created this not bad housekeeping like Labour always achieve.

Really?
your humour is boundless,a bit like your faith in the tories....misplaced as it is. 

[cromwell]

Last time I checked, a good majority wants to rejoin the EU.  Not that they would allow that to happen anyway.  I predict we will be back in the customs union within the next 4 years, and in the single market within 10.  EU membership in 20.

Regarding all the MPs who are trying to bring back Johnson, I see 3 possibilities
- They have completely taken leave of any senses that they ever had.
- They have not taken a look at the evolution of Boris Johnson's popularity with the electorate and his polling numbers since 2019, nor taken into account that in 2019 he had Brexit and Corbyn on his side.  It's not at all evident that Boris Johnson is an election winner in a normal election fight - in spite of the determination of all news media to find vox pops to the contrary in the last days. 
- They have realised that they will definitely lose the next election, and they think that having Johnson as leader will be more likely to keep their individual seat for Con.

Also, Johnson was one of the ones who recommended appointing Truss.

And this doesn't take into account the fact that he is currently under investigation and might need to be suspended if found guilty.

I don't think being suspended bothers him

[Borchester]

Then Sheepy will be correct - there will be a melee of Cos and Labs all claiming the position of Blair and the Blair phoenix will ascend once again! So there really will be essentially one party.

That is ok by me.

Starmer won't dare to take the UK back into the EU. In fact I doubt that poor old Stodge will dare do much of anything. He might put up taxes but that is why God gave us accountants

[T00ts]

Um....

ok.

At least I will know which newspaper subscription to buy you for Xmas. 

Meanwhile in the real world, the current polling on popularity of Johnson and the entire Conservative party is completely massively outside even double of the margin of error for the Conservatives to lose.  Even if the underestimation of Tory support is double what it has ever been before, they will still lose.

They also lost pretty much every by-election while Johnson was PM, some of them in the safest Tory seats in the country.

I hope they do bring him back in as PM because that will ensure that they lose even worse at the next election.  The only thing we have to guard against is that Johnson knows this so I wouldn't put it past him to try to become some kind of dictator or engineer some kind of pretext to delay the next election by starting a war or something.

So in a sense, it may not matter what you think because it seems like quite a large majority of the UK people disagree with you. 

I think what is sometimes forgotten is that elections are won based on swing voters, not based on the folk like you who would always vote for the same party no matter what that party does.

That's fairly patronising. Are you a swing voter suddenly? You are just peeved because there are some of us who expect to respect the Ref result and you are miffed that the best chance for years that you have had of putting Labour in the better seats is about to leave you behind yet again. Let me repeat. I don't like Boris for all sorts of reasons but I hate nasty back biting even more. He deserved better and if he can return and get some pay back then why not? 
I really don't want Sunak to benefit from his appalling behaviour and his lack of loyalty. If the Conservative failings make you think that somehow remain will put us back in the debacle that is the EU then I very much hope that you are sadly disappointed. If remain had won then you would expect nothing less. So why should I?

[Javert]

No-one asked me if I want to rejoin so your poll is faulty. The only time anyone bothered to ask was in 2016 and the result was clear. Why are we still going over this? We are out as far as we can at present. the next thing is to clear all the EU junk off the statute books and replace it. We might choose to replace with similar but it is our choice, not some diktat from a protectionist political project that far from being for the many is actually for the very few. As a Labour supporter I would have thought that slogan meant something to you.

Boris is on a trumped up investigation monopolised by Labour and remainer politicians fearful that he might indeed make a comeback and sweep them all away. I was no fan of Boris other than he was the only one to promise to obey the people but he has been treated shabbily by those who are supposed to guide the rest of us and they deserve their comeuppance. I hope he makes it possible that Sunak never becomes a PM and if that means we suffer a Labour Government for long enough for people to recognise their mistake so be it. But be warned it will once again prove to be a disaster.
Oh dear! When 2008 happened Brown had sold off all our gold reserves at rock bottom prices and stolen from private pensions. It left us nothing to fall back on. They had good years and what did they do? They employed into the public sector often with non jobs. They built up the cost of running the country, of course buying votes at the same time, with no regard of laying by reserves in case the roof fell in. We are still suffering for their rubbish politics. When it did they were seen for the nincompoops that they were and still are.

Um....

ok.

At least I will know which newspaper subscription to buy you for Xmas.  

Meanwhile in the real world, the current polling on popularity of Johnson and the entire Conservative party is completely massively outside even double of the margin of error for the Conservatives to lose.  Even if the underestimation of Tory support is double what it has ever been before, they will still lose.

They also lost pretty much every by-election while Johnson was PM, some of them in the safest Tory seats in the country.

I hope they do bring him back in as PM because that will ensure that they lose even worse at the next election.  The only thing we have to guard against is that Johnson knows this so I wouldn't put it past him to try to become some kind of dictator or engineer some kind of pretext to delay the next election by starting a war or something.

So in a sense, it may not matter what you think because it seems like quite a large majority of the UK people disagree with you.  

I think what is sometimes forgotten is that elections are won based on swing voters, not based on the folk like you who would always vote for the same party no matter what that party does.

[T00ts]

Last time I checked, a good majority wants to rejoin the EU.  Not that they would allow that to happen anyway.  I predict we will be back in the customs union within the next 4 years, and in the single market within 10.  EU membership in 20.

Regarding all the MPs who are trying to bring back Johnson, I see 3 possibilities
- They have completely taken leave of any senses that they ever had.
- They have not taken a look at the evolution of Boris Johnson's popularity with the electorate and his polling numbers since 2019, nor taken into account that in 2019 he had Brexit and Corbyn on his side.  It's not at all evident that Boris Johnson is an election winner in a normal election fight - in spite of the determination of all news media to find vox pops to the contrary in the last days. 
- They have realised that they will definitely lose the next election, and they think that having Johnson as leader will be more likely to keep their individual seat for Con.

Also, Johnson was one of the ones who recommended appointing Truss.

And this doesn't take into account the fact that he is currently under investigation and might need to be suspended if found guilty.

No-one asked me if I want to rejoin so your poll is faulty. The only time anyone bothered to ask was in 2016 and the result was clear. Why are we still going over this? We are out as far as we can at present. the next thing is to clear all the EU junk off the statute books and replace it. We might choose to replace with similar but it is our choice, not some diktat from a protectionist political project that far from being for the many is actually for the very few. As a Labour supporter I would have thought that slogan meant something to you.

Boris is on a trumped up investigation monopolised by Labour and remainer politicians fearful that he might indeed make a comeback and sweep them all away. I was no fan of Boris other than he was the only one to promise to obey the people but he has been treated shabbily by those who are supposed to guide the rest of us and they deserve their comeuppance. I hope he makes it possible that Sunak never becomes a PM and if that means we suffer a Labour Government for long enough for people to recognise their mistake so be it. But be warned it will once again prove to be a disaster.

Um....

Isn't it better to spend and be bust, than just to go bust without spending or improving anything?

I disagree that Labour has always done that - as far as can tell, the lack of funds post 2008 was mainly caused by the financial crisis that was mainly not a UK issue.  If Labour had won the 2010 election they would have done a form of austerity as well - they said it at the time.

There are a few times the Conservatives have wrecked the economy and caused huge financial issues as well (e.g. right now).  I think they are just much more successful at convincing more people that in the past Labour was always disastrous - if you look at history you can see it's 6 of one and half a dozen the other.

What a lot of folk mean is that Labour is worse if you are incredibly rich and want to hang on to all your money.  This doesn't make a lot of difference though in macro economic terms.

Oh dear! When 2008 happened Brown had sold off all our gold reserves at rock bottom prices and stolen from private pensions. It left us nothing to fall back on. They had good years and what did they do? They employed into the public sector often with non jobs. They built up the cost of running the country, of course buying votes at the same time, with no regard of laying by reserves in case the roof fell in. We are still suffering for their rubbish politics. When it did they were seen for the nincompoops that they were and still are. 

[Javert]

But Labour has always spent and bust! Conservatives have just bust! That's a fundamental difference for me.

Um....

Isn't it better to spend and be bust, than just to go bust without spending or improving anything?

I disagree that Labour has always done that - as far as can tell, the lack of funds post 2008 was mainly caused by the financial crisis that was mainly not a UK issue.  If Labour had won the 2010 election they would have done a form of austerity as well - they said it at the time.

There are a few times the Conservatives have wrecked the economy and caused huge financial issues as well (e.g. right now).  I think they are just much more successful at convincing more people that in the past Labour was always disastrous - if you look at history you can see it's 6 of one and half a dozen the other.

What a lot of folk mean is that Labour is worse if you are incredibly rich and want to hang on to all your money.  This doesn't make a lot of difference though in macro economic terms.

[Nick]

But Labour has always spent and bust! Conservatives have just bust! That's a fundamental difference for me.

The perfect storm, Covid dovetailed with Putin and given a kick by Liz has created this not bad housekeeping like Labour always achieve. 

[Javert]

Back in the day, the whips would ask my local MP how his wife and catamite were getting along. He was very loyal. A bit of GBH in the voting lobbies is nothing compared to what went on before.

I have no idea as to whom our next PM will be, but I think that

(a) the days of the MPs taking the grassroots for granted are as one with the songs of yesteryear.

(b) even if the Tory MPs don't realise (a), Starmer does. He knows that he needs the votes of those disgruntled conservatives if he is ever to make it to number 10 and he knows that most of those aforementioned Tories want low taxes and to keep out of the EU. So Sir Stodge will careful about raising the former and accept Brexit as a done deal in view of the latter, with the result that the next Labour government will be only slightly left of centre.

Last time I checked, a good majority wants to rejoin the EU.  Not that they would allow that to happen anyway.  I predict we will be back in the customs union within the next 4 years, and in the single market within 10.  EU membership in 20.

Regarding all the MPs who are trying to bring back Johnson, I see 3 possibilities
- They have completely taken leave of any senses that they ever had.
- They have not taken a look at the evolution of Boris Johnson's popularity with the electorate and his polling numbers since 2019, nor taken into account that in 2019 he had Brexit and Corbyn on his side.  It's not at all evident that Boris Johnson is an election winner in a normal election fight - in spite of the determination of all news media to find vox pops to the contrary in the last days.  
- They have realised that they will definitely lose the next election, and they think that having Johnson as leader will be more likely to keep their individual seat for Con.

Also, Johnson was one of the ones who recommended appointing Truss.

And this doesn't take into account the fact that he is currently under investigation and might need to be suspended if found guilty.

[T00ts]

There always was one party.

There are a few knucke draggers on the right who like to dream of a nation of blond Aryan supermen and some lefty loons fantasing about whatever lefty loons fantasise about, but most successful government comes from the party in power holding the middle ground. That is why neither Boris or Sir Stodge have any real beliefs and will probably both be PM in future

But Labour has always spent and bust! Conservatives have just bust! That's a fundamental difference for me.

[Borchester]

Then Sheepy will be correct - there will be a melee of Cos and Labs all claiming the position of Blair and the Blair phoenix will ascend once again! So there really will be essentially one party.

There always was one party.

There are a few knucke draggers on the right who like to dream of a nation of blond Aryan supermen and some lefty loons fantasing about whatever lefty loons fantasise about, but most successful government comes from the party in power holding the middle ground. That is why neither Boris or Sir Stodge have any real beliefs and will probably both be PM in future

[T00ts]

Back in the day, the whips would ask my local MP how his wife and catamite were getting along. He was very loyal. A bit of GBH in the voting lobbies is nothing compared to what went on before.

I have no idea as to whom our next PM will be, but I think that

(a) the days of the MPs taking the grassroots for granted are as one with the songs of yesteryear.

(b) even if the Tory MPs don't realise (a), Starmer does. He knows that he needs the votes of those disgruntled conservatives if he is ever to make it to number 10 and he knows that most of those aforementioned Tories want low taxes and to keep out of the EU. So Sir Stodge will careful about raising the former and accept Brexit as a done deal in view of the latter, with the result that the next Labour government will be only slightly left of centre.

Then Sheepy will be correct - there will be a melee of Cos and Labs all claiming the position of Blair and the Blair phoenix will ascend once again! So there really will be essentially one party.

[Borchester]

I'll stick my neck out and make a prediction.

If it looks as though Boris Johnson will achieve enough support to stand for the leadership and Penny Mordaunt and Sunak will make 3 there will be a falling away of support for Mordaunt to avoid having Sunak and Boris put to the membership. The accusations of pushing and shoving arguments recorded at voting the other evening will be nothing compared to the skulduggery that will take place over the next 3 days.

Back in the day, the whips would ask my local MP how his wife and catamite were getting along. He was very loyal. A bit of GBH in the voting lobbies is nothing compared to what went on before.

I have no idea as to whom our next PM will be, but I think that

(a) the days of the MPs taking the grassroots for granted are as one with the songs of yesteryear.

(b) even if the Tory MPs don't realise (a), Starmer does. He knows that he needs the votes of those disgruntled conservatives if he is ever to make it to number 10 and he knows that most of those aforementioned Tories want low taxes and to keep out of the EU. So Sir Stodge will careful about raising the former and accept Brexit as a done deal in view of the latter, with the result that the next Labour government will be only slightly left of centre.

[T00ts]

I'll stick my neck out and make a prediction. 

If it looks as though Boris Johnson will achieve enough support to stand for the leadership and Penny Mordaunt and Sunak will make 3 there will be a falling away of support for Mordaunt to avoid having Sunak and Boris put to the membership. The accusations of pushing and shoving arguments recorded at voting the other evening will be nothing compared to the skulduggery that will take place over the next 3 days.