Russia and the Ukraine

[Sampanviking]

He has been given an open invitation to invade by telling him to stick his demands where the sun doesn't shine. Like I told you before they probably wish it so. Or if they think a double bluff might work they might well come completely unglued. Not that I am telling you anything the Russians don't already know.

There are two red lines for Russia
1) Ukraine joins NATO
2) The Ukrainian Army attacks the break away republics

Until either of these happen, there will be no Invasion
Nor does Russia need too, The Ukrainian economy is tanking and prolonged talk by the US/UK about impending Invasion and War is driving this tanking.
Nobody wants to invest in Ukraine and nobody wants to risk buying Ukrainian State Debt (except at usurious and unsustainable rates).
The EU has just to throw 1.2 Billion Euros at the Ukraine and a good part of the low Gas Reserves in Europe this year (despite it being a mild winter so far) seems to be due to the EU pumping its own Gas to the Ukraine, which cannot afford to pay Russia for its own supply.

None of this is really being helped by the Ukraine being increasingly armed by the West, a move that will simply invite similar moves by Russia to the militias in the Donbass.

I would say that Ukraine is on the brink of total Balkanisation and Putin is happy to wait and watch and pick up those pieces in the Russian speaking East and South that then turn to Russia for help and protection.

[Sheepy]

I suspect the US would like Russia to invade given it is a perfect 'I told you so' to Europe if they did.

Nonetheless I am a skeptical bugger. The US defence contracts need to be paid. So what better way to do that than to supply Ukraine with weapons right now. Even Zelensky is asking for the intelligence that suggests things have changed compared to the rest of the seven years of the civil war. I am of the opinion this is propaganda. Not that troop building hasn't spooked NATO. But the reliance of assumption this isn't defence training is making the news without scrutiny. But I don't worry in any case. Ukraine membership needs overall concensus and the French and Germans seem keen on a diplomacy solution. It maybe true that America won't give Russia assurances that Ukraine won't get membership. But the Germans will (in stealth) and have a veto to prove it.

LOL see if I am bothered, while you are all feeling the cold, I can pop out in my camper which is self-sufficient in power has blow air heating that runs just about anything flammable and has the comforts I need. Let them move their chess pieces around all they like. Get ahead of their games I say. 

[johnofgwent]

I can't say that I have been following the matter over closely, other than that the Russian Bear is threatening the gallant little Ukraine. And that Joe Biden's now has a disapproval rating in double figures.

At such times US presidents tend to try to boost their popularity with foreign adventures, so is Joe likely to send the 7th Fleet up the Dnieper river to defend Kiev or will he just have an afternoon nap and forget about it?

I think we face two separate issues. The first is some utter prick persuaded Joe he could up sticks and piss off out of Afghanistan and nothing bad would happen for months, whereas in fact the taliban were running the show inside a week. Does whoever persuaded him of that still work for him ?


The second problem is Putin

Putin should have woken up dead with a Raspberry Pi rammed up his arse the morning after Litvinyenko ? found he had a little too much polonium in the tea. 

It is the only language his sort understand....

Today, the opportunity is long gone and he knows he can wander around most of the world causing chemical, biological and even nuclear havoc and none will stand up to him. It is too late.

[B0ycey]

He has been given an open invitation to invade by telling him to stick his demands where the sun doesn't shine. Like I told you before they probably wish it so. Or if they think a double bluff might work they might well come completely unglued. Not that I am telling you anything the Russians don't already know.

I suspect the US would like Russia to invade given it is a perfect 'I told you so' to Europe if they did.

Nonetheless I am a skeptical bugger. The US defence contracts need to be paid. So what better way to do that than to supply Ukraine with weapons right now. Even Zelensky is asking for the intelligence that suggests things have changed compared to the rest of the seven years of the civil war. I am of the opinion this is propaganda. Not that troop building hasn't spooked NATO. But the reliance of assumption this isn't defence training is making the news without scrutiny. But I don't worry in any case. Ukraine membership needs overall concensus and the French and Germans seem keen on a diplomacy solution. It maybe true that America won't give Russia assurances that Ukraine won't get membership. But the Germans will (in stealth) and have a veto to prove it.

[Sheepy]

You probably have hit the nail on the head Borchester. Those who scream war loudest right now are Biden and Johnson, both of whom are tanking in the polls. The problem with that is Russia isn't Vietnam or Iraq. They can bite back. So rhetoric should be at a minimum. Besides Russia keep saying they won't invade. So rather than discuss a hypothetical, why don't we wait for them to invade given for the past few months we have been told it is imminent.

He has been given an open invitation to invade by telling him to stick his demands where the sun doesn't shine. Like I told you before they probably wish it so. Or if they think a double bluff might work they might well come completely unglued. Not that I am telling you anything the Russians don't already know. 

[B0ycey]

I can't say that I have been following the matter over closely, other than that the Russian Bear is threatening the gallant little Ukraine. And that Joe Biden's now has a disapproval rating in double figures.

At such times US presidents tend to try to boost their popularity with foreign adventures, so is Joe likely to send the 7th Fleet up the Dnieper river to defend Kiev or will he just have an afternoon nap and forget about it?

You probably have hit the nail on the head Borchester. Those who scream war loudest right now are Biden and Johnson, both of whom are tanking in the polls. The problem with that is Russia isn't Vietnam or Iraq. They can bite back. So rhetoric should be at a minimum. Besides Russia keep saying they won't invade. So rather than discuss a hypothetical, why don't we wait for them to invade given for the past few months we have been told it is imminent.

[Borchester]

I can't say that I have been following the matter over closely, other than that the Russian Bear is threatening the gallant little Ukraine. And that Joe Biden's now has a disapproval rating in double figures.

At such times US presidents tend to try to boost their popularity with foreign adventures, so is Joe likely to send the 7th Fleet up the Dnieper river to defend Kiev or will he just have an afternoon nap and forget about it?