What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Sheepy]

No. But if so, better than a hot cow pat...

Seems to me the heat has sent you delirious. Didn't they leave you any water either?

[patman post]

No. But if so, better than a hot cow pat...

[Sheepy]

So says Lamb Chop...

Somebody left you in a hot car pat?

[patman post]

But then didn't we say there were only two sets of people would could stop it from the beginning, that being the Russians and Ukrainians having a jaw,jaw. While ignoring outside influences. You all knew Zelenski was a puppet from the start. 

So says Lamb Chop...

[Sheepy]

The Zelenski Line meat grinder continues to grind, but eve this cannot hold up forever and the cracks and bends as the Russian advance are pushing it to the point of disintigration.

All thought here are major clashes along the whole Donbass front, the key actions are those are developing an operational envelopment of the town of Advika in the southern area of the front and which has led to active envelopment and now deep penetration into the town of Bakhmut, which is cut from supply in both South and North and where street fighting is taking place in the Eastern part of the town.

The Northern encirclement of Bakhmut has been achieved by the taking of nearly all the town of Soledar. This has also fully isolated the large garrison around Siversk, which has been largely locked in place in a static contest at the northern end of the line. It seems that the Ukrainian force holding the Siversk area (known as Charlie Group) are being rapidly withdrawn from the area, this is supported by the rapid falling of some of the smaller towns and villages within the salient, indicating that Russian forces are advancing quite rapidly again, despite it not being a major active front for some weeks now.

The fall on both Bakhmut and Advika would be end of the entire Zelensky line and; guven the level of casualties that the Ukrainians have taken in failed attempt to keep plugging the gaps, it is questionable as to whether or not they will have any combat capable units left to hold the final Slavansk Kramatorsk line at the Western end of the Donbass

In Kherson the Ukrainian debacle gets ever more humiliating. Over little more than a month, the claims from Kiev, have gone from a million man army to a two hundred thousand man army to just Psy Ops to try and demoralise the Russian Army!!??. The truth is that the Ukraine has no capacity to launch any counter offensive and that indeed there are indications that the Russians are planning their own counter offensive and are quietly advancing into better launch positions on the front line.

What the Ukrainians are doing is beyond all belief
They have launched a rocket attack against a Prison in DPR territory which as holding Ukrainian POW's
They have launched an incessant artillery attack against residential areas of Donetsk city including the use of Petal cluster mines
Incredibly they have repeatedly used artillery to attack the Enroder Nuclear power station held by Russia on the South bank of the Dnieper.

In all cases they are trying to claim that the Russians are shelling themselves.
This is disingenuous nonsense and its western allies should be at the forefront of calling them out on this and making sure they stop.
If the Power Station is damaged and a major radiation leak occurs, it is primarily the Russian speaking areas that would be contaminated and made uninhabitable.
Hardly the act of a responsible leadership that genuinely represents the whole country as it claims and definitely not the action of the "winning" side.
This has all the hallmarks of impotent spite and could only be catagorised as genocidal and a crime against humanity.

The key takeaway though is very simple. This is a proxy war between NATO and the Russian Federation and the Russians are still advancing.

But then didn't we say there were only two sets of people would could stop it from the beginning, that being the Russians and Ukrainians having a jaw,jaw. While ignoring outside influences. You all knew Zelenski was a puppet from the start.  

[Sampanviking]

The Zelenski Line meat grinder continues to grind, but eve this cannot hold up forever and the cracks and bends as the Russian advance are pushing it to the point of disintigration.

All thought here are major clashes along the whole Donbass front, the key actions are those are developing an operational envelopment of the town of Advika in the southern area of the front and which has led to active envelopment and now deep penetration into the town of Bakhmut, which is cut from supply in both South and North and where street fighting is taking place in the Eastern part of the town.

The Northern encirclement of Bakhmut has been achieved by the taking of nearly all the town of Soledar. This has also fully isolated the large garrison around Siversk, which has been largely locked in place in a static contest at the northern end of the line. It seems that the Ukrainian force holding the Siversk area (known as Charlie Group) are being rapidly withdrawn from the area, this is supported by the rapid falling of some of the smaller towns and villages within the salient, indicating that Russian forces are advancing quite rapidly again, despite it not being a major active front for some weeks now.

The fall on both Bakhmut and Advika would be end of the entire Zelensky line and; guven the level of casualties that the Ukrainians have taken in failed attempt to keep plugging the gaps, it is questionable as to whether or not they will have any combat capable units left to hold the final Slavansk Kramatorsk line at the Western end of the Donbass

In Kherson the Ukrainian debacle gets ever more humiliating. Over little more than a month, the claims from Kiev, have gone from a million man army to a two hundred thousand man army to just Psy Ops to try and demoralise the Russian Army!!??. The truth is that the Ukraine has no capacity to launch any counter offensive and that indeed there are indications that the Russians are planning their own counter offensive and are quietly advancing into better launch positions on the front line.

What the Ukrainians are doing is beyond all belief
They have launched a rocket attack against a Prison in DPR territory which as holding Ukrainian POW's
They have launched an incessant artillery attack against residential areas of Donetsk city including the use of Petal cluster mines
Incredibly they have repeatedly used artillery to attack the Enroder Nuclear power station held by Russia on the South bank of the Dnieper.

In all cases they are trying to claim that the Russians are shelling themselves.
This is disingenuous nonsense and its western allies should be at the forefront of calling them out on this and making sure they stop.
If the Power Station is damaged and a major radiation leak occurs, it is primarily the Russian speaking areas that would be contaminated and made uninhabitable.
Hardly the act of a responsible leadership that genuinely represents the whole country as it claims and definitely not the action of the "winning" side.
This has all the hallmarks of impotent spite and could only be catagorised as genocidal and a crime against humanity.

The key takeaway though is very simple. This is a proxy war between NATO and the Russian Federation and the Russians are still advancing.

[Sampanviking]

I really did Check to make sure it was not the Daily Onion or something similar, but no its the real Amnesty Website...
Talk about rats leaving the sinking ship. Conveniently ignored by MSM though as far as I can see.
Nothing new here though, these traits have been observed, commented on and ignored by MSM from day 1.....

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

• Military bases set up in residential areas including schools and hospitals 
• Attacks launched from populated civilian areas

Shame it misses out the indiscriminate shelling of Residential areas of Donetsk which have no military presence in them, shelling which includes the widespread use of petal mines, which are a cluster delivered small anti personnel mine, capable of crippling adults and killing children and pets. Children are particularly at risk as these mines are small and toy like in shape.

[Sampanviking]

Its been difficult to sort out exactly what is happening over the last week or so as there has been a slew of data, mostly disconnected and often contradictory which has made joining the dots difficult.

This has largely been due to an operational news blackout for the Russian Military, increasingly overblown nonsense from Kiev and just little snapshots from the local militias and other volunteer units.

In short all the talk of a major counter offensive by the Ukrainians in Kherson district is looking increasingly hollow. The one million man army has shrunk to a 200,000 man army and much of that poorly equipped and untrained territorial forces that are little more than light foot infantry.
There has been speculation that the aim was to disrupt the Russians offensive in the Donbass by making them redirect forces to the Southern Front and away from the East. If so, it appears partially successful as it seems that up to 30 Russian BTG formations have been redeployed.

Unfortunately, the Ukrainians have had to also redeploy a large part of the artillery they had in the Donbass to the Southern Front as well in order to give their forces some fire support.

Result....
1) Kherson - whatever was planned seems to have fizzled out and the attempts to attack the Dnieper bridges appear to have failed. These bridges are built like fortresses and simply laying reinforced concrete sections over the damaged causeway's has brought them back into full use. In addition the Russians had pontoons, ferrys and air lift to keep forces and supplies moving. There has been no more reports of missile attacks on the bridges for some days now.

Where the Ukrainians have tried to advance they only seemed to walk into carefully prepared Russian traps, where the Russian pulled back and let the Ukrainians move into specially prepared artillery kill zones where they had to retreat with very heavy casualties.
It seems that without enough artillery or airpower that the Ukrainians do not have the capacity to counter attack let alone launch an offensive.

Furthermore it may be dawning that all they have achieved is to cause to have assembled, a massive Professional Russian Armoured Force, with massive air and artillery support to a battlefield which is open steppe in all directions. In other words the optimum terrain for Russian armour.

2) The Donbass - the consequences of the Ukrainians moving their armour to the Southern Front is having consequences. Clearly the Ukrainians believed that the carefully prepared fortifications adjacent to Donetsk city would  be sufficient to hold the DNR/LNR militias at bay. Unfortunately for them, the lack of artillery has unpinned these militia in their front lines and allowed them to advance behind ferocious Russian Artillery and Aerial Bombardment and take many Ukrainian trench systems that have marked the front line since 2015. In areas such as Peski, Donetsk International Airport and Maryinka, they have broken through the lines and are now attacking other Ukrainian trench systems form the rear.

Further north, the Russian forces and allies are cutting through the towns and territory north and south of Bakhmut.

In short the entire Ukrainian front line in the Donbass is in full collapse and the pace of events is starting to accelerate rapidly.

[Sheepy]

A story that is so crazy it could actually be true!

It all started a couple of days ago when pro Ukrainian media channels started getting very excited and showing pictures of two burnt out S-300 Air Defence systems.
The Ukrainian channels were proudly declaring that these were Russian S-300 in the Kherson area and had been destroyed by US supplied Himars MLRS and were a prelude to the launch of the much touted Ukrainian counter offensive on that front.

The loss of two S-300 systems would have been a major blow and should have elicited a major response from the Russian side. Strangely however, they seemed very quite and oddly sanguine about the whole business. On top of this, stories about a Ukrainian counter offensive started to fizzle out, stories about isolated Russian troops were debunked, Ukrainian attacks on Russian held bridges in the area were being repeatedly defeated and the few counter offensive movements that the Ukrainians did try were easily beaten off with very heavy Ukrainian loses.

The the most incredible story started to break,
At its heart, was a desperate need for the Ukrainians to score a major PR event/victory in order to give its Western doners something to sell to their public at home in order to justify ongoing massive fiscal and military support.
The Ukrainian Special Operations Service (Intelligence) hatched a cunning plan. Stung by stories of corrupt Ukrainian officers selling Western supplied weapons to the Russians, they decided to pull the same trick back.

To do this, they went looking for a Russian Air Force pilot and to induce same, with a very substantial cash payment to defect with a Russian Military plane and to land in Western Ukraine. The result of course would have been parroted in the media and governments as evidence that Russian morale was rock bottom and that most of the Russian military wanted to escape "certain death on the Ukrainian battlefield and seek safety instead in the West.
The Ukrainians finally made contact with a receptive Russian pilot and one that flew the huge Ilyushin Il-76 transport plane.

Negotiations were duly entered into and a substantial sum agreed and eventually paid.
The pilot however pointed out that the moment a Russian military aircraft tried to penetrate Ukrainian Air Space that he was at very high risk of being shot down by Ukrainian ground based Air Defense.
The Ukrainian side obligingly provided the Russian pilot with a safe corridor in order to fly through and avoid the active SAM kill zones.

Sadly for the Ukrainians, there contact was not a corrupt or disillusioned Russian Air Force pilot, but a member of Russia;s own Special Operations Forces.
The information provided by the Ukrainians for the safe corridor enabled the Russians to quickly extrapolate the positions of the Ukrainian Air Defense batteries, which they were then able to confirm with other Intelligence gathering means.

No, Il-76 came across the border, following the safe corridor, but a flock of Kalibre cruise missiles did and they flew straight to the positions identified and confirmed as being where the Ukrainian SAM sites were currently located.

Thus it appears that the destroyed S-300's in Kherson were Ukrainian and not Russian and the Ukrainians put out there version claiming Russian loss first to try and get something out of this debacle and to try and claim some success against Russia. The media however realising that even they could not hide the truth of this story, simply did not touch it.

Its a great story and from a motive perspective is certainly credible, but is it true?
It is being promoted by official Russian sources and is being advanced by channels that are usually reliable.
The icing on the cake however must be the simultaneous sacking under charges of incompetence and or treason, of the head of the Ukrainian Special Operations branch and indeed a number of other senior officers within it.

Well, my call is true unless categorically disproved and I am sure we will learn more eventually, in due course.

Well, I am sure tales of the Russians out thinking the Ukrainians is nothing new, Russia is still the world's largest country with huge amounts of commodities which the Americans and their globalist chums cannot control, the Russians and anybody with half a brain knows that. 

[Sampanviking]

A story that is so crazy it could actually be true!

It all started a couple of days ago when pro Ukrainian media channels started getting very excited and showing pictures of two burnt out S-300 Air Defence systems.
The Ukrainian channels were proudly declaring that these were Russian S-300 in the Kherson area and had been destroyed by US supplied Himars MLRS and were a prelude to the launch of the much touted Ukrainian counter offensive on that front.

The loss of two S-300 systems would have been a major blow and should have elicited a major response from the Russian side. Strangely however, they seemed very quite and oddly sanguine about the whole business. On top of this, stories about a Ukrainian counter offensive started to fizzle out, stories about isolated Russian troops were debunked, Ukrainian attacks on Russian held bridges in the area were being repeatedly defeated and the few counter offensive movements that the Ukrainians did try were easily beaten off with very heavy Ukrainian loses.

The the most incredible story started to break,
At its heart, was a desperate need for the Ukrainians to score a major PR event/victory in order to give its Western doners something to sell to their public at home in order to justify ongoing massive fiscal and military support.
The Ukrainian Special Operations Service (Intelligence) hatched a cunning plan. Stung by stories of corrupt Ukrainian officers selling Western supplied weapons to the Russians, they decided to pull the same trick back.

To do this, they went looking for a Russian Air Force pilot and to induce same, with a very substantial cash payment to defect with a Russian Military plane and to land in Western Ukraine. The result of course would have been parroted in the media and governments as evidence that Russian morale was rock bottom and that most of the Russian military wanted to escape "certain death on the Ukrainian battlefield and seek safety instead in the West.
The Ukrainians finally made contact with a receptive Russian pilot and one that flew the huge Ilyushin Il-76 transport plane.

Negotiations were duly entered into and a substantial sum agreed and eventually paid.
The pilot however pointed out that the moment a Russian military aircraft tried to penetrate Ukrainian Air Space that he was at very high risk of being shot down by Ukrainian ground based Air Defense.
The Ukrainian side obligingly provided the Russian pilot with a safe corridor in order to fly through and avoid the active SAM kill zones.

Sadly for the Ukrainians, there contact was not a corrupt or disillusioned Russian Air Force pilot, but a member of Russia;s own Special Operations Forces.
The information provided by the Ukrainians for the safe corridor enabled the Russians to quickly extrapolate the positions of the Ukrainian Air Defense batteries, which they were then able to confirm with other Intelligence gathering means.

No, Il-76 came across the border, following the safe corridor, but a flock of Kalibre cruise missiles did and they flew straight to the positions identified and confirmed as being where the Ukrainian SAM sites were currently located.

Thus it appears that the destroyed S-300's in Kherson were Ukrainian and not Russian and the Ukrainians put out there version claiming Russian loss first to try and get something out of this debacle and to try and claim some success against Russia. The media however realising that even they could not hide the truth of this story, simply did not touch it.

Its a great story and from a motive perspective is certainly credible, but is it true?
It is being promoted by official Russian sources and is being advanced by channels that are usually reliable.
The icing on the cake however must be the simultaneous sacking under charges of incompetence and or treason, of the head of the Ukrainian Special Operations branch and indeed a number of other senior officers within it.

Well, my call is true unless categorically disproved and I am sure we will learn more eventually, in due course.

[Sheepy]

ahh but Sheepy, you don't understand the how the "international Rules based system! works (as opposed to actual International Law).

Rule 1) America can do whatever it wants, whenever it wants and needs no justification to do it, other than we "we say so"
Rule 2) America's "friends" can do the same, but only when America says its ok and probably best just to join in with whatever America is already doing
Rule 3) Nobody else is allowed to do these things, only America.

Simple!

In the Ukraine itself, the southern part of the Siversk Bakhmut line has buckled badly and a highly fortified Thermal Plant and Environs have been taken by the Russians.
The Defending Ukrainian units have lost massive percentages of their manpower after being stuck in a small cauldron for weeks taking fire from three sides.
Whenever these lines break and Russia gets through the fortifications of the contact line, territory starts to fall pretty quickly throughout the area of the new salient.

The problems start when you understand where they are coming from only too well. Then you become envious of the braindead polly parrots.

[Sampanviking]

Probably the same could be said if the Americans the EU and the British government had stayed out of Kiev. But they couldn't, could they?

ahh but Sheepy, you don't understand the how the "international Rules based system! works (as opposed to actual International Law).

Rule 1) America can do whatever it wants, whenever it wants and needs no justification to do it, other than we "we say so"
Rule 2) America's "friends" can do the same, but only when America says its ok and probably best just to join in with whatever America is already doing
Rule 3) Nobody else is allowed to do these things, only America.

Simple!

In the Ukraine itself, the southern part of the Siversk Bakhmut line has buckled badly and a highly fortified Thermal Plant and Environs have been taken by the Russians.
The Defending Ukrainian units have lost massive percentages of their manpower after being stuck in a small cauldron for weeks taking fire from three sides.
Whenever these lines break and Russia gets through the fortifications of the contact line, territory starts to fall pretty quickly throughout the area of the new salient.

[Sheepy]

If Russian defeat is the same as Russia, getting out of Ukraine the quicker the better. Nobody knows true casualty figures, but whatever they are add them to estimated 50,000 Russian casualties, and consider none would have happened if Putin, had stayed in Russia, and not attacked his neighbour. 3,000 is not correct but if it was they are murdered for defending their homeland .

Probably the same could be said if the Americans the EU and the British government had stayed out of Kiev. But they couldn't, could they? 

[Good old]

I know we get story after story of the impending Russian defeat; did you know young Ukrainians are dying at the rate of 3000 a week also.

If Russian defeat is the same as Russia, getting out of Ukraine the quicker the better. Nobody knows true casualty figures, but whatever they are add them to estimated 50,000 Russian casualties, and consider none would have happened if Putin, had stayed in Russia, and not attacked his neighbour. 3,000 is not correct but if it was they are murdered for defending their homeland .

[Sheepy]

Timing , timing. Six months to hit those so called military assets, even from the Russians  own pictures it's clear the targets were low level priorities.. Yes the agreement might not be plain sailing to implement without upsets.
But doing this at this moment ,is nothing more than a case of the cat toying with the mouse.

I know we get story after story of the impending Russian defeat; did you know young Ukrainians are dying at the rate of 3000 a week also.