What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Borchester]

The only verbal exchanges I am aware of regarding nukes, was after some of the more rabid neo-cons in Washington starting talking about the "likelihood" of Russia using tactical nukes in the Ukraine ( which many saw as opinion shaping in respect of a US false flag).
The Russians responded by saying that they would not use nukes on their own territory and back yard and any use would be much bigger ones,much further abroad.
Needless to say the version you will have heard will have filtered out the Western contributions to that exchange

Does Russia need to take the possibility seriously? Well yes they are dealing with the one country that has actually used these weapons in anger and one which currently being run by the biggest bunch of fruit cakes and nut jobs the US has ever been able to produce. Even you don't doubt that, yet bizarrely you trust them with the safety of the world!!

I am sure I do live in an alternative reality to you, mine in based in reality and yours in our tabloid level press and political class.
Don't listen to them Cromwell, all they ever do is lie, distort and dissemble.
In the past it may not have mattered, but this time its serious and if you follow this wild eyed neo-cons loons without question, you will end up in a very bad place and not understand how the hell you go there...

Apparently the Ukrainians have recaptured Arkhanhelske and Myrolyubivka, turned the Russian's flank and now have the
bear surrounded on all sides.

To be honest, this was not what I expected when Putin's leaders marched into the Ukraine in February

[Sampanviking]

Really so Vlad has not threatened the nuclear option?


I think reading all that Sampan that sees you in some alternative reality.

The only verbal exchanges I am aware of regarding nukes, was after some of the more rabid neo-cons in Washington starting talking about the "likelihood" of Russia using tactical nukes in the Ukraine ( which many saw as opinion shaping in respect of a US false flag). 
The Russians responded by saying that they would not use nukes on their own territory and back yard and any use would be much bigger ones,much further abroad.
Needless to say the version you will have heard will have filtered out the Western contributions to that exchange

Does Russia need to take the possibility seriously? Well yes they are dealing with the one country that has actually used these weapons in anger and one which currently being run by the biggest bunch of fruit cakes and nut jobs the US has ever been able to produce. Even you don't doubt that, yet bizarrely you trust them with the safety of the world!!

I am sure I do live in an alternative reality to you, mine in based in reality and yours in our tabloid level press and political class.
Don't listen to them Cromwell, all they ever do is lie, distort and dissemble.
In the past it may not have mattered, but this time its serious and if you follow this wild eyed neo-cons loons without question, you will end up in a very bad place and not understand how the hell you go there...

[cromwell]

The Western Political and Media class seem to have regressed to the level of ten year olds when it come to Putin.
The utterly infantile nature of their attacks is a new low even for them.
All I can say is just put together every claim and assertion they have made since February and ask yourself, is this really at all, in the very least bit, likely?
I genuinely pity anyone that thinks yes.

As to what is happening today on the ground, well..
The Ukrainians continue with their offensive in the Kharkov/North Donbas region and have also started since yesterday a massive push along the northern end of the Kherson front.
Both are making ground and the Russians are not apparently moving further forces to either front.
My guess is that the large Ukrainian grouping on the Zaphorhisia and South Donetsk front may still be waiting to start an offensive of its own but wants to see the The Russian Third Army Corps reduced by being partly transferred to the other fronts.
Well this is not happening as the Southern Front is probably the most critical to Russia of them all as this is the actual land bridge from the Donbas to the Crimea.

The fighting is savage and the Ukrainians advance under heavy fire and meet heavy resistance. They do however out number the Russian defenders by many times which is why the Russians are conducting a fighting retreat to new defensive lines.
This is a string of videos out today from the Kharkov North Donetsk front and shows clashes between Ukrainian and a mix of Lughansk militia and Chechens
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1576723684001484800

More destroyed Ukrainian armour on the Kherson front
https://twitter.com/islamicworldupd/status/1576801866318458880

A lot of people are wondering why Russia is not committing to further forces to these fronts and I suspect the answer is that they have something else in mind
Every day we are seeing videos just like this one of fresh Russian units moving towards and into Ukraine
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1576922866888896518

This is I think the point. Up until now Russia has not committed more than 20% of its ground forces to this conflict and this is clearly about to change.
As one commentator put it " the war of BTG's (Battalion Tactical Groups) is about to be replaced by one of Army Groups" which to be honest is what most people expected to see from Day 1
These forces on the move are not Reservists but Regular forces. The Reservists in the most part, are there to take positions on quiet borders in Russia, where these regulars are usually stationed.

The Ukraine is expending a lot of the NATO trained and equipped army it has had trained up over the last six months in its current offensives. It seems that this force will be reduced and exhausted by the time the Russians open the new fronts with fresh formations.
I don't normally repeat gossip, but something I keep hearing and from sources that have proved reliable so far, is that a massive Russian force is assembling in South West Belarus and that this is there to storm into Western Ukraine and cut the key road and rail links that brings NATO supplies into the country. Well we shall see about that.

Finally to anyone obsessing about Nuclear Weapons, just bear in mind that Russia has massive room for conventional escalation in terms of weapon systems and targets, before it would need to even think about the Nuclear option. To give credence from going from the highly restrained conditions of the SMO to all out MAD is frankly ludicrous and only the west is trying to push that one.

Anyway I think Russia will shortly give the Ukraine an ultimatum to leave the territory of the Russian Federation. If it is ignored then Russia will declare a full war on the Ukraine.

Really so Vlad has not threatened the nuclear option?


I think reading all that Sampan that sees you in some alternative reality.

[Sampanviking]

The Western Political and Media class seem to have regressed to the level of ten year olds when it come to Putin.
The utterly infantile nature of their attacks is a new low even for them.
All I can say is just put together every claim and assertion they have made since February and ask yourself, is this really at all, in the very least bit, likely?
I genuinely pity anyone that thinks yes.

As to what is happening today on the ground, well..
The Ukrainians continue with their offensive in the Kharkov/North Donbas region and have also started since yesterday a massive push along the northern end of the Kherson front.
Both are making ground and the Russians are not apparently moving further forces to either front.
My guess is that the large Ukrainian grouping on the Zaphorhisia and South Donetsk front may still be waiting to start an offensive of its own but wants to see the The Russian Third Army Corps reduced by being partly transferred to the other fronts.
Well this is not happening as the Southern Front is probably the most critical to Russia of them all as this is the actual land bridge from the Donbas to the Crimea.

The fighting is savage and the Ukrainians advance under heavy fire and meet heavy resistance. They do however out number the Russian defenders by many times which is why the Russians are conducting a fighting retreat to new defensive lines.
This is a string of videos out today from the Kharkov North Donetsk front and shows clashes between Ukrainian and a mix of Lughansk militia and Chechens
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1576723684001484800

More destroyed Ukrainian armour on the Kherson front
https://twitter.com/islamicworldupd/status/1576801866318458880

A lot of people are wondering why Russia is not committing to further forces to these fronts and I suspect the answer is that they have something else in mind
Every day we are seeing videos just like this one of fresh Russian units moving towards and into Ukraine
https://twitter.com/rybar_en/status/1576922866888896518

This is I think the point. Up until now Russia has not committed more than 20% of its ground forces to this conflict and this is clearly about to change.
As one commentator put it " the war of BTG's (Battalion Tactical Groups) is about to be replaced by one of Army Groups" which to be honest is what most people expected to see from Day 1
These forces on the move are not Reservists but Regular forces. The Reservists in the most part, are there to take positions on quiet borders in Russia, where these regulars are usually stationed.

The Ukraine is expending a lot of the NATO trained and equipped army it has had trained up over the last six months in its current offensives. It seems that this force will be reduced and exhausted by the time the Russians open the new fronts with fresh formations.
I don't normally repeat gossip, but something I keep hearing and from sources that have proved reliable so far, is that a massive Russian force is assembling in South West Belarus and that this is there to storm into Western Ukraine and cut the key road and rail links that brings NATO supplies into the country. Well we shall see about that.

Finally to anyone obsessing about Nuclear Weapons, just bear in mind that Russia has massive room for conventional escalation in terms of weapon systems and targets, before it would need to even think about the Nuclear option. To give credence from going from the highly restrained conditions of the SMO to all out MAD is frankly ludicrous and only the west is trying to push that one.

Anyway I think Russia will shortly give the Ukraine an ultimatum to leave the territory of the Russian Federation. If it is ignored then Russia will declare a full war on the Ukraine.

[Barry]

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-live-latest-news-putin-kyiv-invasion-12541713

Good. Vlad is losing the plot according to Sky News.
Cue SPV telling us the Kremlin's side of the story. Which, according to the Telegraph, Vlad is acting totally on his own consulting no-one at all, in full on mad dictator mode.

[Nick]

That's a no, then.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-russia-war-live-latest-news-putin-kyiv-invasion-12541713

[Barry]

Oh, I need to supply a link to prove it but not one single link showing how the Ruskies are doing is required. Sampan posts a twitter feed and it's gospel?

That's a no, then.

[Nick]

Have you got a reliable link for that, Nick, please?

Oh, I need to supply a link to prove it but not one single link showing how the Ruskies are doing is required. Sampan posts a twitter feed and it's gospel?

[Sheepy]

Krazy Lyman was one part of a counter offensive being waged on a very long front.
To take it the Ukrainians have had to go all in and it was expensive
The below is from a Pro Ukrainian Telegram Channel showing footage on a small section of the road heading towards the town
It is graphic and the bodies and vehicles shown are all Ukrainian.
https://t.me/ZE_kartel/6029

While this was going on, every other part of that front ground to a halt.
Not only the other fronts became almost inactive as well.
This means that most of the most Combat Capable units of the Ukrainian army have been concentrated in one small area of the Donbas for a few good TV headlines.
Its not enough

Autumn mud will now slow things down to crawl during which time the Russians will get there new forces deployed and ready for when the freeze begins.

Maybe, but how is Vlads popularity doing in Russia? he is having a few problems with the plebs I hear much the same as the Westminster party. 

[Sampanviking]

ButSampan you keep saying the Ukrainians will be finished soon and Russia is victorious on all fronts.

Clearly not.

Krazy Lyman was one part of a counter offensive being waged on a very long front.
To take it the Ukrainians have had to go all in and it was expensive
The below is from a Pro Ukrainian Telegram Channel showing footage on a small section of the road heading towards the town
It is graphic and the bodies and vehicles shown are all Ukrainian.
https://t.me/ZE_kartel/6029

While this was going on, every other part of that front ground to a halt.
Not only the other fronts became almost inactive as well.
This means that most of the most Combat Capable units of the Ukrainian army have been concentrated in one small area of the Donbas for a few good TV headlines.
Its not enough

Autumn mud will now slow things down to crawl during which time the Russians will get there new forces deployed and ready for when the freeze begins.

[patman post]

For Feck Sake! The northern Russian force was no more than 50,000 strong and maybe no more than just 30,000. That is no way the kind of force big enough to storm a Capital City in any country, let alone a big one like the Ukraine.
People who keep parroting this idiotic line of propaganda are really only making themselves look utter fools.

The Russians went in expecting to fight one war and ended up fighting another.
I have said this before many times, so it seems I need to see it again. They were there not for Kiev but for the same reason Kiev is there. They were there for the Dnieper.
They were there to lock as much of the Ukraine's  army in place while they got on with securing the essential land bridge on the Southern Coastal area.
This they achieved.
Everybody who wasn't a MSM reader and therefore a willing participant in the Gumby nation, expected the Ukrainian army to fall back to the West Bank of the Dnieper which is the best possible defensive line in the whole country.

Instead, the Coke Head Clown of Kiev ordered his army to hold every inch of land irrespective of cost. Well cost them it has. His original army was destroyed in the Donbas months ago by Russian artillery. Kiev answered this by throwing tens of thousands of raw conscripts into the meat grinder to fill the gaps, while he let NATO train him a new army for the Summer offensives we have just seen.

Net result, most of that army was also destroyed, much of it in Kherson and the rest badly damaged in Kharkov, with the much vaunted southern offensive to recapture Mariupol cancelled it would seem completely.

Zelensky has just lost 20% of the territory he claims as his ..... 20%. This taken from him by a Russian Task force of no more than 300,000 men active since February. Now that number is being at least doubled, with regular units form other parts of the county being transferred in, and their places being taken by reservists called up last week.
The Ukrainians are at full mobilisation, they are getting Western Financial Support, NATO military support and real time Intelligence and no doubt the benefit of NATO ECM at well. The net rult is that they still been held by an army of only 300,000.
When the new Russian armies enter the fight, probably opening brand new fronts along the Russian border, the Ukrainians will be stretched to breaking.

Pro Ukrainian sources seem to count Russian losses ten times over and then the MSM prints the number without any scrutiny or due diligence whatsoever, in short, they uncritically parrot propaganda.
These clowns have been claiming that Russia is about to run out of men, fuel and ammo since March but somehow they are still there and firing some 20000 shells and rockets at the Ukrainians every day.

This war is far from over. In reality, its probably only really just starting to get going....

But this is still a retreat from occupied land.

And it seems doubtful that Putin's New Model Army — made up of conscripts, convicts and coerced non-ethnic Russians — is going to find advancing anything other than hard going. 
 
Shame if this isn't the end, or the end of the beginning, but it seems way past the beginning of the end, so it's shameful that this Russian megalomaniac is allowed to continue throwing away so many lives...

[cromwell]

ButSampan you keep saying the Ukrainians will be finished soon and Russia is victorious on all fronts.

Clearly not.

[Sampanviking]

Three days was pushing it , considering his line was ,he wasn't going to invade. You didn't have to read of a plan to take Kiev, he dammed near surrounded the place only to pull out minus a number of casualties, and huge waste of valuable armour, scathing they should have been it was a disaster. Maybe if he allowed you to read what he planned you could let us know. He said they wouldn't invade, he said they would be welcomed with open arms. He said this was not war. He says Ukraine is Russia. Why do you think he is worth listening to when he gets so much wrong?

For Feck Sake! The northern Russian force was no more than 50,000 strong and maybe no more than just 30,000. That is no way the kind of force big enough to storm a Capital City in any country, let alone a big one like the Ukraine.
People who keep parroting this idiotic line of propaganda are really only making themselves look utter fools.

The Russians went in expecting to fight one war and ended up fighting another.
I have said this before many times, so it seems I need to see it again. They were there not for Kiev but for the same reason Kiev is there. They were there for the Dnieper.
They were there to lock as much of the Ukraine's  army in place while they got on with securing the essential land bridge on the Southern Coastal area.
This they achieved.
Everybody who wasn't a MSM reader and therefore a willing participant in the Gumby nation, expected the Ukrainian army to fall back to the West Bank of the Dnieper which is the best possible defensive line in the whole country.

Instead, the Coke Head Clown of Kiev ordered his army to hold every inch of land irrespective of cost. Well cost them it has. His original army was destroyed in the Donbas months ago by Russian artillery. Kiev answered this by throwing tens of thousands of raw conscripts into the meat grinder to fill the gaps, while he let NATO train him a new army for the Summer offensives we have just seen.

Net result, most of that army was also destroyed, much of it in Kherson and the rest badly damaged in Kharkov, with the much vaunted southern offensive to recapture Mariupol cancelled it would seem completely.

Zelensky has just lost 20% of the territory he claims as his ..... 20%. This taken from him by a Russian Task force of no more than 300,000 men active since February. Now that number is being at least doubled, with regular units form other parts of the county being transferred in, and their places being taken by reservists called up last week.
The Ukrainians are at full mobilisation, they are getting Western Financial Support, NATO military support and real time Intelligence and no doubt the benefit of NATO ECM at well. The net rult is that they still been held by an army of only 300,000.
When the new Russian armies enter the fight, probably opening brand new fronts along the Russian border, the Ukrainians will be stretched to breaking.

Pro Ukrainian sources seem to count Russian losses ten times over and then the MSM prints the number without any scrutiny or due diligence whatsoever, in short, they uncritically parrot propaganda.
These clowns have been claiming that Russia is about to run out of men, fuel and ammo since March but somehow they are still there and firing some 20000 shells and rockets at the Ukrainians every day.

This war is far from over. In reality, its probably only really just starting to get going....

[Good old]

Yeah but that the thing Cromwell, I have only ever read that in the Western Media. rather like the plan to capture Kiev. I never read that in any Russian or Pro Russian source and all were pretty scathing about it.
Certainly I never bought into it as any skimming of the early pages will clearly show.

Three days was pushing it , considering his line was ,he wasn't going to invade. You didn't have to read of a plan to take Kiev, he dammed near surrounded the place only to pull out minus a number of casualties, and huge waste of valuable armour, scathing they should have been it was a disaster. Maybe if he allowed you to read what he planned you could let us know. He said they wouldn't invade, he said they would be welcomed with open arms. He said this was not war. He says Ukraine is Russia. Why do you think he is worth listening to when he gets so much wrong?

[Sampanviking]

What's really happening speaks for itself.........all be over in three days.

How many days is it now?

Yeah but thats the thing Cromwell, I have only ever read that in the Western Media. rather like the plan to capture Kiev. I never read that in any Russian or Pro Russian source and all were pretty scathing about it.
Certainly I never bought into it as any skimming of the early pages will clearly show.