What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Sampanviking]

That from SPV was spin straight from the Kremlin office. The fact is that Ukraine have recovered about 50% of the ground the Russians took and the Crimea is now in their sights after the bridge was badly damaged by mystery operators.
Putin has two options, go big or go home. Let's hope for the latter.

You do talk rubbish Barry. Unless the Ukrainians have Moses leading them, they have no way of getting over the Dnieper and even if they did, what would they do on the other shore? Its defended, what part of this is so difficult for you to understand??
I know that there was a load of rubbish in the last couple of days about up to 20000 soldiers isolated and thousands of vehicles abandoned etc.
Well even Jeremy Bowen was tacitly admitting this was nonsense and that the Russians withdrew from the West Bank in good order and without loss.

Ukraine has reclaimed some territory, but it did not get the victory it was looking for. They were looking to isolate and pin a force of up to 40,000 Russian troops against the bend of the river and destroying them. They failed to do this. The Russians withdrew intact.
The Ukrainians admit that there attacks on the Russian lines in Kherson in October cost them 12000 KIA with Russian KIA being just over a thousand. We also see that they lost hundreds of armoured vehicles. That loss would only have been worthwhile had they had the pay off of their first actual military victory over the Russian army. Meaning the total destruction of a large Russian military formation.

Now for Cromwell's point. I like many others have been very surprised by the self imposed restraint the Russians have been operating under since February. This is not how a Russian army fights. Well whatever the reason for it, it is clearly coming to an end as the new Commander only does proper wars. This is what is coming. The fact that the other regional commanders; who were very vocal in their criticism of the previous command, are now loudly giving their support and backing to Surovikin, tells you all you need to know.
Finally under his command, a proper war is starting to be fought. The energy and transport networks of Ukraine are being taken down, and the loose ends of the front tidied up and stabilised and now we await the active introduction of new Army Groups of several hundreds of thousands of men.
The fact that they are not simply being rushed to the existing fronts piecemeal, but being prepared at the back, is very telling that a very major new Russian offensive is coming in the winter and this time the mistakes of last spring are not going to be repeated.

As for the Ukrainians? Well they are now at peak mobilisation, they have very little else to put into uniform. There original weapon stocks are largely depleted and the Westerns supplied systems are equally depleted. The West is literally running out of things to send, other than there own active units equipment, with the dates for resupply often being several years time.

By contrast the Russians are only starting there mobilsation process with massive numbers of reservists left to call up, long before they need to consider any kind of conscription.

Finally, to Steve's point. War was never the objective, if it was was the Russians could have walked it in 2014 or started the current operation in the Spring of 21, when they also formed up along the border. On all these occasions the Russian objective was to force Kiev to properly implement the Minsk agreements.
This spring, Erodogan did broker a peace deal with both sides accepted. Zelensky however pulled out just prior to signing the day after Boris Johnson flew in to see him.
This will have told Moscow that the rabid Neocon's in Washington and London have no interest in peace and so I guess this is when the Russians will have started to draw up the fresh battle plan that we seeing coming to fruition now.
It is no surprise that at this time, under the conditions described above, with fresh Russian armies being readied to join the conflict, that suddenly US media is taking about possible peace deals again....

[srb7677]

Lot of losers here SPV but you can't escape you were telling us it would all be over in weeks at the outset the Ukrainian army all but destroyed, then it was see by September.

September has come and gone and it's got worse for Russia,I hope Putin s put out to grass and this war ends soon.

And right up until the last moment before it happened he was busy telling us that Russia had no plans to invade and that it was all western lies.

He is surely suffering a crisis of credibility in the eyes of the rest of us, and convincing no one but himself.

He reminds me a bit of Comical Ali.

[T00ts]

What lovely joyous pictures on the news of Ukrainians who have just been freed from the Russian invasion - long may it last.

[Nick]

That from SPV was spin straight from the Kremlin office. The fact is that Ukraine have recovered about 50% of the ground the Russians took and the Crimea is now in their sights after the bridge was badly damaged by mystery operators.
Putin has two options, go big or go home. Let's hope for the latter.

Bret Maverick didn't come here to lose!

[Barry]

That from SPV was spin straight from the Kremlin office. The fact is that Ukraine have recovered about 50% of the ground the Russians took and the Crimea is now in their sights after the bridge was badly damaged by mystery operators.
Putin has two options, go big or go home. Let's hope for the latter.

[cromwell]

Lot of losers here SPV but you can't escape you were telling us it would all be over in weeks at the outset the Ukrainian army all but destroyed, then it was see by September.

September has come and gone and it's got worse for Russia,I hope Putin s put out to grass and this war ends soon.

[Sampanviking]

I think Russian people having Ukrainian family is very relative, you clearly don't cause it doesn't fit your indoctrinated communist mindset.

I don't know whether I agree or not cause I didn't read it, I got to a smiley face concerning Russians with Ukrainian family and I stopped reading. 

No you did not Nick my smiley face was for all the posts made this afternoon, which makes your retort a poor excuse
So you quoted a post you could not be bothered to even read.

BTW if you think I am a communist you must be one of the most confused people I have ever met....

[Nick]

If you have nothing relevant to say Nick, say nowt.

If you disagree with my reading of Surovikin's decision, then the lets hear it.

I think Russian people having Ukrainian family is very relative, you clearly don't cause it doesn't fit your indoctrinated communist mindset. 

I don't know whether I agree or not cause I didn't read it, I got to a smiley face concerning Russians with Ukrainian family and I stopped reading.  

[Sampanviking]

You think that a lot of people having Ukrainian relatives isn't reality?
Well you just carry on enjoying this war, I dare say you and your Chinese in-laws all sat round having a right good laugh at the genocide of the Uyghur people also.

If you have nothing relevant to say Nick, say nowt.

If you disagree with my reading of Surovikin's decision, then the lets hear it.

[Nick]

Oh bless, its like listening to a kindergarten!
Time for some reality

So why has Russia withdrawn from the West Bank of the Dnieper?

The key reason is that the Russian military has a new Commander, General Surovikin, a man who definitely knows his business and is not afraid of taking the correct military decisions just because the politicians don't like it.
He has a well deserved reputation and it seems to be worrying Kiev very much that; as the next major Russian offensive looms, that he decides to withdraw forces from a front, where his forces were very effectively holding the line, inflicting massive losses of men and armoured vehicles on the Ukrainians on almost a daily basis.
The Russian bridgehead was secure, well reinforced and well supplied. It is true though that with limited fixed supply routes across the Dnieper, which were in range of long range artillery supplied to the Ukrainians, that there was a degree of risk attached to the logistics and that the more logistics that were required, the higher that risk would become.

Now this is the problem that Surovikin inherited. It was far from insolvable and could be solved by expanding the bridgehead. If he brought two Army Groups across the River and launched an offensive to take Nykoliave in the West and then arc to take Kirov Rog to the north, he would have a bridgehead deep enough to put his bridges out of range.
Maybe he would had enough forces to keep heading West and take Odessa. Maybe he would have had enough force to also head East, along the North bank of the Dnieper until the river itself bends back to North and West at the cities of Zaphorisia and Denipro.

With all the extra forces being placed under his disposal, I think everyone can be confident that Surovkin would be capable to launching a successful offensive to take these territories. There would though be a downside. A massive offensive on the West bank of the Dnieper would come at the expense of any major offensive on the Territory East of the river, where most of the Russian forces are already positioned.
Further, a successful offensive to take everything from Odessa to Dnipro would double the length of Russia;s front lines in the war. This Western front line would be facing into the Ukrainian heartlands and given the Ukrainian reckless disregard for its own casualties, would be very expensive to maintain a defensive line, especially if the Territory on the East Bank of the Dnieper, adjacent to Zaphorisia and Dnipro were still in Ukrainian hands.

I seems that Surovkin has looked at this and decided it would be very poor use of his resources and has decided to concentrate his efforts on other areas.
This means that Kherson West of the Dnieper was an unwanted distraction, tying up men, equipment and logistics, on long and insecure logistic supply lines. So he ended it.

The signs have been there for weeks starting with the evacuation of civilians and then the building of defensive lines on both sides of the river and what has probably been a gradual withdrawal of forces progressively over that time.

Now half of the Russian territory in the SMO is bordered by the river, freeing up forces and simplifying logistics. All the problems the Russians had because of the river are now the Ukraine's problems. I think I read above somebody talking about the Ukrainians advancing to the Crimea. Good luck with that, all the Ukrainians would have to do is cross a 300M wide river with all the bridges blown, against an enemy dug into the Eastern Bank who has total Air Supremacy and Ten Artillery pieces for every one of their own.
A Ukrainian Amphibious assault would be a suicide mission.

So Surovikin is going to launch his offensive in the East and we know he will not mess around. When NATO attacks a county, Power, Water, Sewage and Transportation are key targets from day one. It took the Russians eight months to start doing this and now this will be undertaken with ruthless efficiency. All the problems of logistics across the Dnieper that the Russians had in Kherson will become Ukrainian problems along its entire length.

The Ukrainians remain cautious and with good reason. Deception is a key part of any war and to have intentions telegraphed in the way this withdrawal has, should always be treated with the utmost skepticism and fear of a trap should never be discounted.
It does look though as the withdrawal was exactly as stated........
Once again though, the Ukrainians have gained some territory, but the army they faced has not been defeated in battle and those forces are fully intact and now dug in across the river and almost unassailable.

Yes lots of woe on the Russian sides about another withdrawal and lots of Glee on the Ukrainian. I think both will be very short lived and end as soon as General Armageddon puts his plans into effect.

You think that a lot of people having Ukrainian relatives isn't reality? 
Well you just carry on enjoying this war, I dare say you and your Chinese in-laws all sat round having a right good laugh at the genocide of the Uyghur people also.

[Sampanviking]

Oh bless, its like listening to a kindergarten!
Time for some reality

So why has Russia withdrawn from the West Bank of the Dnieper?

The key reason is that the Russian military has a new Commander, General Surovikin, a man who definitely knows his business and is not afraid of taking the correct military decisions just because the politicians don't like it.
He has a well deserved reputation and it seems to be worrying Kiev very much that; as the next major Russian offensive looms, that he decides to withdraw forces from a front, where his forces were very effectively holding the line, inflicting massive losses of men and armoured vehicles on the Ukrainians on almost a daily basis.
The Russian bridgehead was secure, well reinforced and well supplied. It is true though that with limited fixed supply routes across the Dnieper, which were in range of long range artillery supplied to the Ukrainians, that there was a degree of risk attached to the logistics and that the more logistics that were required, the higher that risk would become.

Now this is the problem that Surovikin inherited. It was far from insolvable and could be solved by expanding the bridgehead. If he brought two Army Groups across the River and launched an offensive to take Nykoliave in the West and then arc to take Kirov Rog to the north, he would have a bridgehead deep enough to put his bridges out of range.
Maybe he would had enough forces to keep heading West and take Odessa. Maybe he would have had enough force to also head East, along the North bank of the Dnieper until the river itself bends back to North and West at the cities of Zaphorisia and Denipro.

With all the extra forces being placed under his disposal, I think everyone can be confident that Surovkin would be capable to launching a successful offensive to take these territories. There would though be a downside. A massive offensive on the West bank of the Dnieper would come at the expense of any major offensive on the Territory East of the river, where most of the Russian forces are already positioned.
Further, a successful offensive to take everything from Odessa to Dnipro would double the length of Russia;s front lines in the war. This Western front line would be facing into the Ukrainian heartlands and given the Ukrainian reckless disregard for its own casualties, would be very expensive to maintain a defensive line, especially if the Territory on the East Bank of the Dnieper, adjacent to Zaphorisia and Dnipro were still in Ukrainian hands.

I seems that Surovkin has looked at this and decided it would be very poor use of his resources and has decided to concentrate his efforts on other areas.
This means that Kherson West of the Dnieper was an unwanted distraction, tying up men, equipment and logistics, on long and insecure logistic supply lines. So he ended it.

The signs have been there for weeks starting with the evacuation of civilians and then the building of defensive lines on both sides of the river and what has probably been a gradual withdrawal of forces progressively over that time.

Now half of the Russian territory in the SMO is bordered by the river, freeing up forces and simplifying logistics. All the problems the Russians had because of the river are now the Ukraine's problems. I think I read above somebody talking about the Ukrainians advancing to the Crimea. Good luck with that, all the Ukrainians would have to do is cross a 300M wide river with all the bridges blown, against an enemy dug into the Eastern Bank who has total Air Supremacy and Ten Artillery pieces for every one of their own.
A Ukrainian Amphibious assault would be a suicide mission.

So Surovikin is going to launch his offensive in the East and we know he will not mess around. When NATO attacks a county, Power, Water, Sewage and Transportation are key targets from day one. It took the Russians eight months to start doing this and now this will be undertaken with ruthless efficiency. All the problems of logistics across the Dnieper that the Russians had in Kherson will become Ukrainian problems along its entire length.

The Ukrainians remain cautious and with good reason. Deception is a key part of any war and to have intentions telegraphed in the way this withdrawal has, should always be treated with the utmost skepticism and fear of a trap should never be discounted.
It does look though as the withdrawal was exactly as stated........
Once again though, the Ukrainians have gained some territory, but the army they faced has not been defeated in battle and those forces are fully intact and now dug in across the river and almost unassailable.

Yes lots of woe on the Russian sides about another withdrawal and lots of Glee on the Ukrainian. I think both will be very short lived and end as soon as General Armageddon puts his plans into effect.

[Nick]

Most of the people I am working with ATM have family either in or displaced from Ukraine, I am being told that support has dropped from 80% down to 50% now. 7:30 every morning has a slot of about 10 minutes showing propoganda, cameras looking up the barrels of tanks and the likes. Since when did hardware on the frontline ever pause for cameras to be shoved up it? 

[Borchester]

But their families will or already do and at some point even the brow beaten Russians are going to blow a gasket.

No, Pappy is right.

Russian governments don't give a toss about casualties and the Russians have an amazing ability to put up with dimwitted governments that get them killed.

[T00ts]

He won't because he doesn't care.

But their families will or already do and at some point even the brow beaten Russians are going to blow a gasket.

[papasmurf]

How is Putin ever going to justify the losses of men?

He won't because he doesn't care.