Sir john curtice..labour cannot win an outright majority

[Thomas]

Although Labour have managed to reclaim second place in Scottish politics after several years in which they mostly trailed the Tories, they still find themselves a formidably long way behind the SNP.

The average SNP lead on the constituency ballot in the last six Holyrood opinion polls is twenty-one percentage points.  Realistically, if a change of government was on its way, you'd be expecting to see Labour in the outright lead at this stage of the electoral cycle, not twenty-one points adrift.

 And even if they were in the lead, you'd still be wondering how likely they'd be to stay there, because it's common for there to be a swing back to the governing party as an election approaches.  The reality is that Labour remain light-years from reclaiming top spot and it's very difficult to see what will change that

But remember that even by narrowing the SNP's lead to ten points in 2017, Labour still only won a relatively modest seven seats in scotland

https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/

[Thomas]

Well, I will be buggered.

I never thought that it would be so close.

Still, there are always the Lib Dems who are projected to win 22 seats. They are anybody's for a whiff of power and a couple of cabinet posts.

They wont get 22 seats. They challenged in 22 seats in 2019 , jo swinson was crowing about being pm , and look what happend. More likely they will challenge seriously in about 12 or less.

You need to listen to curtices interview on gb news from saturday with arlene foster .He makes the clear point labour  , despite all the waffle from the media , are not challenging in scotland , all the evidence as i said to you shows they are way behind the snp (21 points) and to get into majority territory  , to win at westmisnter the level of support they need to win in england and wales is ludicrously high it seems incredibly unlikely.

[Borchester]

the electoral calculus is saying labour still short of seven seats....

Updated 30 May 2022

Current Prediction: Labour short 7 of majority

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html


rest assured curtice would have been doing the number crunching before making that statement on air.

We keep going back to what tony blair did , and how starmer is trying to emulate him but the political ground is vastly different. No point in selling yourself to some southern english small c tories in a few souther marginals if the red wall voters dislike your politics (anti demcoratic remainer) and he can't win 40 plus seats in scotland because he wont take seats and votes from nationalists.

Partygate will come and go , johnson may or may not fall on his sword at some poiint , but the elephants in the room remain the same for labour.

Well, I will be buggered.

I never thought that it would be so close.

Still, there are always the Lib Dems who are projected to win 22 seats. They are anybody's for a whiff of power and a couple of cabinet posts.

[Thomas]

I don't see any figures Tommy, which is unusual with John Curtice.

And the polls still have Labour at 40% to the Tories 33%.

To be honest, it would be fun seeing Sir Stodge (Unionist) trying to make a deal with the SNP (who ain't), but sad to say, it probably won't happen.

the electoral calculus is saying labour still short of seven seats....

Updated 30 May 2022

Current Prediction: Labour short 7 of majority

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html


rest assured curtice would have been doing the number crunching before making that statement on air.

We keep going back to what tony blair did , and how starmer is trying to emulate him but the political ground is vastly different. No point in selling yourself to some southern english small c tories in a few souther marginals if the red wall voters dislike your politics (anti demcoratic remainer) and he can't win 40 plus seats in scotland because he wont take seats and votes from nationalists.

Partygate will come and go , johnson may or may not fall on his sword at some poiint , but the elephants in the room remain the same for labour.

[Borchester]

I don't see any figures Tommy, which is unusual with John Curtice.

And the polls still have Labour at 40% to the Tories 33%.

To be honest, it would be fun seeing Sir Stodge (Unionist) trying to make a deal with the SNP (who ain't), but sad to say, it probably won't happen. 

[Thomas]

Cheers borkie.

I keep saying the same thing over and over that people are too engrossed in the mud slinging at boris johnson to see the vast elephants in the room facing the labour party.

Curtice is well known and widely respected across the political divide , and while he cant predict the future , generally does know what he is talking about.

Starmer just isnt doing it for many people . At some point over the next 24 months or so , he is going to have to come out of his bunker , and face a grilling while offering up his vision for the future.

[Borchester]

John Curtice: Labour can only hope for a hung parliament at a General Election
3 hrs ago

By Xander Richards

@xanderescribe Political Reporter
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Keir Starmer's Labour is struggling to make enough gains in the polls to take a majority at Westminster. Photo: PA


A HUNG parliament is "the best Labour can hope for" from a UK General Election, polling expert Professor John Curtice has said.
Curtice, who is the president of the British Polling Council, said that a Westminster election would likely see Keir Starmer have to strike a deal with either the SNP or the LibDems in order to put himself in Downing Street.
Starmer has repeatedly ruled out a deal with the SNP in an attempt to shore up his party's Unionist credentials, meaning the LibDems may be his only real option.

Labour face an uphill battle in attempting to win back seats from the Tories in the so-called "Red Wall" as well as taking seats from the SNP in Scotland, Curtice said.
"The truth is, being the largest party in a hung Parliament is pretty much the best [that Starmer] can hope for," the professor went on.
READ MORE: Keir Starmer should rule out indyref2 and working with SNP, Labour veterans say
"And then he faces the question: will he do a deal with the Liberal Democrats and the SNP, both of which will present him with some very fundamental choices ...

"But at the end of the day, history suggests that when people get faced with a choice between becoming prime minister and losing their position as leader of their party, they tend to make the former choice."
Labour's relative success in recent polls has been widely ascribed more to the Conservatives' failures than to their own successes.
Curtice was speaking to former Northern Ireland first minister Arlene Foster on GB News when he made the comments.
He also addressed the partygate scandal engulfing Boris Johnson, saying that the beleaguered Prime Minister might not be out of the woods yet.
"Well, he's survived Partygate so far but of course it's not over," Curtice said.

"Not least because the Committee on Standards and Privileges is now investigating the statements the Prime Minister made in the House of Commons when on a number of occasions about partygate – suggesting initially there're weren't any parties and that he'd been assured that all the regulations had been adhered to, both statements of which are now open to debate ...


"Partygate itself is not over. I think in truth if the committee on privileges were to suggest that the Prime Minister had been less than straightforward in the House of Commons, but that might in the end be enough to turn around enough Conservative MPs."
Johnson survived a no-confidence vote on Monday by 211 votes to 148. The loss of the support of 41% of his MPs was seen as a crushing blow, but Johnson claimed it was a "decisive" victory and vowed to continue on.

[Thomas]

John Curtice: Labour can only hope for a hung parliament at a General Election

A HUNG parliament is "the best Labour can hope for" from a UK General Election, polling expert Professor John Curtice has said.

Curtice, who is the president of the British Polling Council, said that a Westminster election would likely see Keir Starmer have to strike a deal with either the SNP or the LibDems in order to put himself in Downing Street

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20203706.john-curtice-labour-can-hope-hung-parliament-general-election/

article behind paywall but you get the gist of it. He also said labour face an uphill battle to win back the former red wall seats in england never mind taking enough seats from the snp in scotland.

If this is the case, the pinnacle starmer can hope for is largest party in hung parliament , then a deal with either or both the snp or liberals is going to present starmer with difficult choices.