Latest Chinese export - coronavirus COVID-19

[Borg Refinery]

Russia overtakes Germany and France after record rise in cases

The number of coronavirus cases in Russia overtook France and Germany on Thursday to become the fifth highest in the world after a record daily rise.



Moscow's mayor said the real figure, not captured by official statistics, was much higher.



The official tally surged to 177,160, meaning Russia now has more registered cases than Germany or France, as the number of new coronavirus cases jumped by 11,231 in the past 24 hours.



More than half of all cases and deaths are in Moscow, the centre of Russia's outbreak, which on Thursday reported a record overnight increase of 6,703 new cases, bringing its official total to 92,676.



But Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin said research showed the real number of cases in the Russian capital was around 300,000, or more than triple the official figure.

- grauniad

[Barry]

The 7 day moving average of daily deaths peaked at 943 on April 13th.

This figure has dropped to 568 for May 5th.

There is a huge problem in counting at weekend, I have no idea why that is, but it seriously distorts the figures.

e.g. 288 May 4th, 649 May 6th average 468 so still falling.  :thup:

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

There's a lot of discussion about different strains.  Some experts say there are several, with the one affecting the UK being particularly serious. Others say the different strains have similar levels of infectiousness and seriousness. Yet others say the virus has mutated many, many times, as viruses do, but none of these mutations amounts to a different 'strain' and none have changed the characteristics of the disease in humans.  



I have no idea which of these is right, I guess we just need to wait for someone to come up with strong evidence or conclusive proof.

[Barry]

The first death in France was on 14th February 2020, 7 weeks after the first known case. This is understandable as the death rate is pretty low. It needed a lot of infections to get to the first death. During that period the authorities were on high alert, trying to detect cases, but we all know how difficult that was, owing to the asymptomatic incubation period and asymptomatic passage of the virus, in around 50% of people.



China's first known case was 17th November 2019. Their first confirmed death was 9th January 2020, some 8 weeks later.



The talk of different strains, I believe, comes from research which has not been peer reviewed.

Therefore it would be incorrect to jump to the conclusion it was in Europe before it was in China.





Edited a typo

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

As I say, if symptomatic cases were around for several weeks before the news story broke about Wuhan and then infections spread rapidly around the world, the new mystery would be why were infections not spreading rapidly last December or even November?  Even if there had been some unexplained pneumonia deaths and suspicions of a mystery illness going around in late 2019, numbers were insufficient to suggest to enough experts that anything odd was going on. If the origin of the pandemic is pushed back in time by two months, then based on what we know about infection rate and incubation times, then the whole graph of the spread should have happened two months earlier than it did.



The sudden eruption of the epidemic in Wuhan in January would be even more mysterious if the disease had been present for some time without spreading much.  I know we hear that Chinese authorities silenced medical staff who expressed concerns in the early stages of the outbreak but it must have been spreading a lot slower then for it not to have become a big epidemic earlier, if you see what I mean. This is even taking into account the exponential growth as more people become infected they, in turn, can infect more people.



The graphs for most countries show that for a week or two after the first known case, there are just a handful of cases then the numbers start to take off.  In Russia this took nearly a month - longer than most.

[Sampanviking]

Now we're seeing more reports that covid-19 was in Europe earlier than originally thought, with a case that occurred at the end of December 2019 in France confirmed. A Swedish expert is now saying the disease was probably Sweden in November.



If it's true that covid-19 was present in Europe in December and even November last year, I wonder if that changes the thinking on incubation time.



All the data in UK and other European countries is based on when the first cases were confirmed - mostly in January.  The symptomatic cases increased slowly at first, gathered pace and then mushroomed.  Infections were spreading undetected ahead of that.  But it the infection was here or in France a month or more earlier, why was in not spreading earlier?  Does it indicate that incubation period might be a lot longer than thought for many cases?  Or was the virus less infectious or at first?

I would say that with the whole original timeline now being shown to be incorrect, it is also time to reassess the whole history and origin of the Pandemic.

It is also worth noting that the strain of the virus in the UK, is the same as the strain in Italy and Spain and not the one strain that has been prevalent in the Wuhan and the rest of the Far East.

Perhaps it is time to look more closely at the USA - Maryland in particular.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/health/germs-fort-detrick-biohazard.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/heal ... azard.html">https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/health/germs-fort-detrick-biohazard.html

[Borg Refinery]

Misleading - there were some batches like that which were rejected.

Also misleading; some tests were carried out with those kits before it was known they were faulty.



https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/covid-19-india-suspends-use-of-chinese-test-kits/1814767">https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/c ... ts/1814767">https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/covid-19-india-suspends-use-of-chinese-test-kits/1814767



And what about the fact that many were infected with C19?



We should never rely on China for anything.

[Javert]

Tests sent from China were as low as 30% accuracy, which has frustrated this outbreak very badly. Some kits even were contaminated with C19.

Misleading - there were some batches like that which were rejected.

[Borg Refinery]

Believe what you like.  Testing done in Germany in one of the highest impacted areas showed that less than 15% had antibodies.

Tests sent from China were as low as 30% accurate, which has frustrated this outbreak very badly. Some kits were even contaminated with C19.

[Javert]

Just read today that someone in Italy had it mid December. I was in Italy 3 times since then and had a bad 'something' in January that wasn't the normal cold so I believe that the vast majority of people could have had it already.

Believe what you like.  Testing done in Germany in one of the highest impacted areas showed that less than 15% had antibodies.

[Nick]

Do you honestly believe what you have just written? What evidence?

Just read today that someone in Italy had it mid December. I was in Italy 3 times since then and had a bad 'something' in January that wasn't the normal cold so I believe that the vast majority of people could have had it already.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

Now we're seeing more reports that covid-19 was in Europe earlier than originally thought, with a case that occurred at the end of December 2019 in France confirmed. A Swedish expert is now saying the disease was probably Sweden in November.



If it's true that covid-19 was present in Europe in December and even November last year, I wonder if that changes the thinking on incubation time.



All the data in UK and other European countries is based on when the first cases were confirmed - mostly in January.  The symptomatic cases increased slowly at first, gathered pace and then mushroomed.  Infections were spreading undetected ahead of that.  But it the infection was here or in France a month or more earlier, why was in not spreading earlier?  Does it indicate that incubation period might be a lot longer than thought for many cases?  Or was the virus less infectious or at first?

[Barry]

Not really surprising - there was a lot of travel between China and Europe so it wouldn't take long for infected people to be arriving in Europe.  The question is, to what extent.



Also when in December?  31st December or 1st?

Quite obviously you didn't read the link.

[Javert]

Covid-19 was in a pneumonia patient in Paris in December last year. The patient was swabbed then and they have now tested that swab to find it was Covid-19 positive.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554">//https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554



This fits with the anecdotal evidence of several people on this forum.

Not really surprising - there was a lot of travel between China and Europe so it wouldn't take long for infected people to be arriving in Europe.  The question is, to what extent.



Also when in December?  31st December or 1st?

[papasmurf]

Covid-19 was in a pneumonia patient in Paris in December last year. The patient was swabbed then and they have now tested that swab to find it was Covid-19 positive.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554">//https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52526554



This fits with the anecdotal evidence of several people on this forum.

There is certainly a suspicion it was about just before Christmas.