Latest Chinese export - coronavirus COVID-19

[papasmurf]

Of course he does,evidence is only valid if it agrees.....even where there is none.



Tbh T00ts I think there is some parallel world, there are  posters who I normally regard as quite level headed who are posting as though this is all over and in some cases has been a non event from the start. :shrg:

Until Boris ended up in hospital he was one of them.

[cromwell]

Do you honestly believe what you have just written? What evidence?

Of course he does,evidence is only valid if it agrees.....even where there is none.



Tbh T00ts I think there is some parallel world, there are  posters who I normally regard as quite level headed who are posting as though this is all over and in some cases has been a non event from the start. :shrg:

[T00ts]

No, there is evidence that well over 50% have now had it.  That would mean, even without a lockdown, the pattern would have been basically the same.

Do you honestly believe what you have just written? What evidence?

[Scott777]

If the lockdown was completely released tomorrow, we could expect everything to look fine for a week or two, with lots of people again claiming it was all a storm in a teacup, and then an exponential rise in cases again resulting in a second lockdown.



The only thing that would stop that would be if the asymptomatic infection rate is extremely high everywhere, and, people who are infected symptomatically are immune and cannot infect others.



There is little evidence for this to be the case -

No, there is evidence that well over 50% have now had it.  That would mean, even without a lockdown, the pattern would have been basically the same.

[Javert]

The problem is they aren't fallling if the deaths outside of hospitals are included.  Either the incubation time is far longer in some casea than first thought or far more people are ignoring the lockdown than is thought.

Well we won't know that until Tuesday.  Also, if you look at the hospital deaths graph by actual date or death, rather than by date of reporting, it is showing a shallow decline if you draw the average line across the bars.  It's a slow decline but it's going down.  



Further, I'm going to predict it will start going down faster in the next day or two.

[papasmurf]

We don't have that data up to date yet - Tuesday is when the next round of data will come in.



The hospital death rate appears to be falling on a general trend, but only very gradually.

The point being that data that is available for both is not showing a fall. (Chart shown at every daily briefing.)

[Javert]

The problem is they aren't fallling if the deaths outside of hospitals are included.  Either the incubation time is far longer in some casea than first thought or far more people are ignoring the lockdown than is thought.

We don't have that data up to date yet - Tuesday is when the next round of data will come in.



The hospital death rate appears to be falling on a general trend, but only very gradually.

[papasmurf]

I think it's actually not surprising and to be expected that cases will start to fall while there is still this lockdown in place.

The problem is they aren't fallling if the deaths outside of hospitals are included.  Either the incubation time is far longer in some casea than first thought or far more people are ignoring the lockdown than is thought.

[Javert]

I thought I'd bump this old post from 3 months ago now that Britain's official covid-19 death toll has topped 20,000, which is 10% of the worldwide death toll, just to show how wrong some people were (and some still are).



Re the falling numbers in hospitals - I've heard that too - but this might just be in some areas while others are rising.

I think it's actually not surprising and to be expected that cases will start to fall while there is still this lockdown in place.



If the lockdown was completely released tomorrow, we could expect everything to look fine for a week or two, with lots of people again claiming it was all a storm in a teacup, and then an exponential rise in cases again resulting in a second lockdown.



The only thing that would stop that would be if the asymptomatic infection rate is extremely high everywhere, and, people who are infected symptomatically are immune and cannot infect others.



There is little evidence for this to be the case - there have been a few studies finding high levels of antibodies in certain small populations, but they are mainly from towns that were badly affected globally, and even there it was only 15% or so, which is not nearly enough to make a big reduction in the spread.



Also, it will be different in different parts of the country - London for example might have up to a 15% of people who've already had it one way or another, whereas lots of other parts of the country it will be a lot lower.



My feeling is that they do not want to release the lock down by region or by area.  For one thing, this will create a lot of bad publicity and people complaining, and for another thing, it's not enforceable unless you introduce roadblocks stopping people from travelling around.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

So a few hundred infections, over several months from a city of 11 million plus a handful of infections in other cities and countries outside of China and somehow this is the biggest current threat to civilisation?



This is hardly raging through the populace like wildfire is it and the reason some of the handful of deaths were missed is because they were originally recorded as being among the many thousands that die each year of flu based pneumonia, just like they do in this country.



The reporting of this has left me wondering wtf most of these Journos are on? Would we describe things in exactly the same way if the cluster had started in Birmingham. The fact that people travel to and from Wuhan from other cities and other countries should hardly be a matter of reporting. Using Birmingham as an example again, it would be as ridiculous as expressing surprise of other cases being reported in London and Manchester.



I bet there are more people with Norovirus in the UK today than cases of this Coronavirus in China

I thought I'd bump this old post from 3 months ago now that Britain's official covid-19 death toll has topped 20,000, which is 10% of the worldwide death toll, just to show how wrong some people were (and some still are).



Re the falling numbers in hospitals - I've heard that too - but this might just be in some areas while others are rising.

[Barry]

Our local hospital now has less than 80 infected inpatients. This figure was over 140 just a couple of weeks ago.

Admissions are rapidly falling and are well outstripped by discharges.

They reported that they did not experience the peak that they had been forecast. It really is looking on the downhill slope.  :thup:

[Borchester]

Well at the minute borkie my head is done in with hmrc.



Is there anyone actually left at that feckin organisation that answers phones? Or have they sacked them all and outsourced it to some mud hut in mumbai?



As for the borders borkie , theres no cant in the borders since james baggy breeks stewart the turd deported them all to northern ireland after faithfully serving the scottish crown for centuries in rape larceny and pillage.



theres 5 .5 million in scotland , an area roughly two thirds the size of england , and 500 of them live in the borders , and most of them are second home owners from essex hence the constant return of tory politicians in the area.

Ah, you have been dealing with Accounts Office Cumbernauld I see. Even HMRC can't get through to A O Cumbernauld. The only way we ever managed to deal with them was via a Glaswegian lad we kept liquored up and in the office and whose invariable greeting was "Hey, coont." This salutation was apparently the usual opening gambit to negotiations with the  Cumbernauldese, but we more sensitive souls could never get into the swing of things. Not that it made any difference. The computers were invariably down, even before they had computers to go down.



Bit of a problem with HMRC's staff in general. As the regulars leave they are either being replaced by kids on fixed term contracts which means they are just reading off scripts. It would be nice if they were operating out of Mumbai. Unfortunately, as soon as Mr Patel and Miss Begum learn the ropes they bugger off and set up on their own and earn five times as much.



I am not sure about all the second home owners in the Borders coming from Essex. Most folk from the latter buy up in Brittany where property is cheaper. You are probably thinking about my brother in law who is from Yorkshire. He meant to buy a place in Brittany but got lost and ended up somewhere in the Highlands on a croft that he eventually rented out for the midge shooting.

[Thomas]

Coronavirus death toll '40% higher than daily figures given by Government'

[/b]

The true coronavirus death toll could be 41% higher than official figures, new data has revealed. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said 13,121 people in England and Wales had died by April 10 with mentions of Covid-19 on their death certificates, compared with 9,288 in the government's daily toll. If the UK's figures are underestimating the death toll by a similar figure, then the true death toll for the country as a whole could be above 23,000 based on the latest data – making it the second worst hit in Europe after Italy.

[/b]



https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/21/number-deaths-care-homes-doubles-just-four-weeks-12586536/">https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/21/number-d ... -12586536/">https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/21/number-deaths-care-homes-doubles-just-four-weeks-12586536/





The UK was very late in locking down when it had weeks of warning. This is what all the experts agree, including England's former CSA, who predicts 40k.



Good old tory government. They know best..... :roll:

[Thomas]

Robert Jenrick, 2 days ago: "I can report that a very large consignment of PPE is due to arrive in UK tomorrow from Turkey, which amounts to 84 tons of PPE -so a very significant additional shipment"



Today: 'Low confidence' over arrival of PPE from Turkey

[/b] :roll:





https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52351029">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52351029

[Thomas]

Bojo the clown getting more stick in the media.



This time the labour mob smell blood.........

Boris Johnson is the wrong man in the wrong job at the wrong time

[/b]

The Sunday Times revelations confirm all our worst fears: the prime minister's handling of coronavirus has been shockingly complacent

[/b]

No period of grace and convalescence: the Sunday Times didn't even wait for him to stumble back to Downing Street before firing off its devastating attack on his cavalier incompetence over the coronavirus outbreak.



What makes the insiders' account so devastating is that it chimes with everything everyone already knows about Boris Johnson's character. An unnamed "senior adviser" to Downing Street "broke ranks" to say: "What you learn about Boris was he didn't chair any meetings. He liked his country breaks. He didn't work weekends. It was like working for an old-fashioned chief executive in a local authority 20 years ago. There was a real sense that he didn't do urgent crisis planning. It was exactly like people feared he would be."





Exaggerated or not, hearing that the prime minister took two weeks' holiday at Chevening as the virus began to spread in the UK will stick in the public memory. Nor will anyone forget his cheery 3 March boast that he was still shaking hands with virus-sufferers. Nor that he was at Twickenham for a crowded rugby match on 7 March. But above all, he missed not one but all of the first five Cobra meetings on the gathering crisis. Gordon Brown chaired every single Cobra meeting on foot and mouth – when only the health of animals was at stake. Johnson is charged with wasting 38 days before taking serious action against an epidemic approaching in plain sight. In his mind, China was far away. And even when Italy suffered the full horror – despite being better prepared, with more beds and more intensive care units – well, that was just Italy.



No one elected Boris Johnson to cope with a plague. The small group of ageing activists in the Tory party selected him for his Brexitry – and they liked the cut of his cheery jib. He was fun, upbeat, popular and, above all, he had swung the Brexit vote to victory. Michael Gove reported on Sunday that the prime minister is "in cheerful spirits", but that's bafflingly inappropriate. Cheerful? About what? Good croquet on the blossom-strewn Chequers lawns? There are scores of dead doctors and nurses among some 20,000 dead citizens, and rising. Here is the wrong man in the wrong job at the wrong time – the polar opposite of Winston Churchill's arrival in power.



What makes Johnson supremely unsuited to this particular darkest hour is his natural antipathy towards the state. In a speech mainly on Brexit in Greenwich on 3 February, he attacked Wuhan-style lockdowns: "We are starting to hear some bizarre autarkic rhetoric, when barriers are going up, and when there is a risk that new diseases such as coronavirus will trigger a panic and a desire for market segregation." He went on: "Humanity needs some government somewhere that is willing at least to make the case powerfully for freedom of exchange." He was that government, along with Donald Trump. "Herd immunity" was Johnson's policy until it became politically unsustainable. Thereafter, incompetence

[/b]





https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/20/boris-johnson-sunday-times-prime-minister-coronavirus">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... oronavirus">https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/20/boris-johnson-sunday-times-prime-minister-coronavirus