Project Fear

[patman post]

You are very welcome but I still think your arguments are very misplaced. The membership were dealt a duff hand by MPs in a panic. What were they supposed to do? Don't repeat you earlier comment about brown skin. I am sure it wasn't relevant. Loyalty means so much more and Sunak doesn't have any.

The candidate the membership rejected, correctly warned against the results of adopting the Liz Truss policy. What do you think attracted them to choose Liz Truss?

She'd done nothing spectacular in government.

Sunak had obviously opposed Johnson's "let it go and let's see what happens", and the country came out ahead of being the plague-ridden land it could have been, if left to Johnson.

I have no sympathy with Blue Rinses and Col Blimps of Tunbridge Wells. If their pensions get used up keeping warm, and they have to spend their days on an all-day breakfast in Wetherspoons, so be it...

PS  — Wetherspoons chairman was a Leaver — but even he is reshaping the group's pricing policy to help out those adversely affected by the Brexit cockup...

[T00ts]

I am unable easily to locate Brown's specific tests — so I'd appreciate some guidance here (and I also appreciate your editing of the title in my earlier post on the Telegraph realising the travesty Brexit has become. Thank you).

As for repeatedly spotlighting the small constituency that elected Truss and pushed Brexit over the line, I don't apologise. It's becoming increasingly more apparent as each week passes, and the Boris supporter excuses become more weak...

You are very welcome but I still think your arguments are very misplaced.  The membership were dealt a duff hand by MPs in a panic. What were they supposed to do? Don't repeat you earlier comment about brown skin. I am sure it wasn't relevant. Loyalty means so much more and Sunak doesn't have any.

[patman post]

His tests were very specific and although I hate to praise him - he got it right. It caused job losses, recession and general mayhem at the time and sensible people saw it as a wise move on Brown's part. Your constant slurs with your Empire sized shoulder chip are unfounded either then or now.

I am unable easily to locate Brown's specific tests — so I'd appreciate some guidance here (and I also appreciate your editing of the title in my earlier post on the Telegraph realising the travesty Brexit has become. Thank you).

As for repeatedly spotlighting the small constituency that elected Truss and pushed Brexit over the line, I don't apologise. It's becoming increasingly more apparent as each week passes, and the Boris supporter excuses become more weak...

[T00ts]

I think you'll find that the decision for the UK not to join the euro was Gordon Brown's. My recollection from contemporary reports, is that he ruled it out because joining didn't pass his five (unspecified) tests.

My take is that he realised it was a step too far for those proud Brits who valued everything associated with Empire and the past...

His tests were very specific and although I hate to praise him - he got it right. It caused job losses, recession and general mayhem at the time and sensible people saw it as a wise move on Brown's part. Your constant slurs with your Empire sized shoulder chip are unfounded either then or now.

[patman post]

But by far the biggest issue is would the UK meet the financial criteria for joining the EU. The way things are going, not a chance. This was originally the reason the UK didn't adopt the Euro, it didn't qualify for adoption when it would have.

I think you'll find that the decision for the UK not to join the euro was Gordon Brown's. My recollection from contemporary reports, is that he ruled it out because joining didn't pass his five (unspecified) tests.

My take is that he realised it was a step too far for those proud Brits who valued everything associated with Empire and the past...

[B0ycey]

The EU would welcome the UK back, but no way on earth the UK would get a rebate, why would they do that ?
Again that is never going to happen, to get CU & Single market you have to be a full member, they come with the 4 freedoms which associate members also sign up to.
To get in the UK would have to agree to Schengen, the Euro currency (EMU Economic and Monetary Union) and no opt outs, the UK had dozens. As a new member those privileges are gone. The type of opt out were:
-  The UK had an partial opt out on the charter of fundamental rights, part of the Lisbon treaty.
-  The UK had an opt out of police and criminal justice

But by far the biggest issue is would the UK meet the financial criteria for joining the EU. The way things are going, not a chance. This was originally the reason the UK didn't adopt the Euro, it didn't qualify for adoption when it would have.
Quite the opposite, as an EU member the UK can send back refugees to the EU country from where they came. Outside of the EU, all you can do is take them. Refugees are not permitted to legally move from country to country within the EU.

The UK is removing a large chunk of EU legislation/laws by the end of 2023 and all EU legislation/laws by end of 2026, that's a massive undertaking, I'm sure your Tory leaders know what they are doing, but these changes have been written into UK law, its not a aspiration, it's a legal requirement.  I would welcome the UK back, but I think we are on the time scale of Decades and not Years before that happens.

GerryT, the EU would give the UK leeway if it is mutually beneficial to do so. To be honest this is a bit of a moot argument given despite the polls, neither Starmer nor what stooge the Tories whip up will return us back home. 

As for sending refugees back to France when we were in the EU, firstly you have to prove where they came from which is impossible. If I remember correctly the refugees were coming over right before the referendum and was probably the thing that swayed the polls given they WEREN'T being sent back.

[GerryT]

I agree with most of this but the EU would welcome us back if we asked and may even give us our rebate back (but not a certainty).

The EU would welcome the UK back, but no way on earth the UK would get a rebate, why would they do that ?

....but if was want growth, a CU is a good compromise I suspect and a better one is joining the single market.

Again that is never going to happen, to get CU & Single market you have to be a full member, they come with the 4 freedoms which associate members also sign up to.
To get in the UK would have to agree to Schengen, the Euro currency (EMU Economic and Monetary Union) and no opt outs, the UK had dozens. As a new member those privileges are gone. The type of opt out were:
-  The UK had an partial opt out on the charter of fundamental rights, part of the Lisbon treaty.
-  The UK had an opt out of police and criminal justice

But by far the biggest issue is would the UK meet the financial criteria for joining the EU. The way things are going, not a chance. This was originally the reason the UK didn't adopt the Euro, it didn't qualify for adoption when it would have. 

....And Schengen would mean refugees will be catching trains rather than dingees.

Quite the opposite, as an EU member the UK can send back refugees to the EU country from where they came. Outside of the EU, all you can do is take them. Refugees are not permitted to legally move from country to country within the EU.

The UK is removing a large chunk of EU legislation/laws by the end of 2023 and all EU legislation/laws by end of 2026, that's a massive undertaking, I'm sure your Tory leaders know what they are doing, but these changes have been written into UK law, its not a aspiration, it's a legal requirement.  I would welcome the UK back, but I think we are on the time scale of Decades and not Years before that happens.

[patman post]

I wish the UK would rejoin the EU — I cannot think of anything EU that adversely affected me — and if there's a chance the UK could rejoin the EU, I'll support the idea.

But I think the chances of rejoining as before, because of anything the UK has to offer in the way of nuclear weapons, or the size of its (shrinking) economy, are near zero.

Pushing too hard for an unrealistic outcome such as greater integration (eg, joining Schengen, and adopting the euro) is likely to antagonise both converted UK Brexit supporters and current EU members, who have to agree to let the UK back in...

[Sean]

Do you really think the EU would welcome the UK back like it had never been gone?

No , and no one is suggesting it should. The opt outs and tantrums of the past should be cast aside like taking an I phone off a wayward child for misbehaving. The former status as a "special " member with exceptions was one of the many driving factors behind the gammon delusion of push push push for even more. The pros of single market membership without any of the cons was a main pillar of the brexit delusion. The tory party will be absolutely slaughtered at the next general election , and we have seen the world markets react to "Reagonomics "without the worlds reserve currency as espoused by the fantasists in the ERG , and their mirage of "sovereignty" in an interconnected world. When Keir takes us back into the EU , the majority will breathe such a sigh of relief that never again will any political leadership massage the egos of a delusional few and cause the damage of the last few years ever again. Our place is to shelter within the wings of our European Union , with the collective bargaining power of 28 nations on the world stage....

[B0ycey]

Do you really think the EU would welcome the UK back like it had never been gone?

I don't see it.

Apart from the "City of London" as a financial centre, what does the UK have that the EU would like to have brought to the party? It can't be the market of 66m people, because it's there anyway. It can't be the UK's industrial base, that's been in decline for decades. And I doubt it's the UK's lively traditional and advanced Arts Scene — these are always more revered the more distanced they are.

Personally, I'd like the UK back in as a full member as it was. But I do not see EU members unanimously agreeing to the UK rejoining. Not do I see enough Brexit voters changing their minds to allow it to happen.

Perhaps in 20 years, when the rump of Brexit voters have died off, there could be a chance.  But what's going to be left of the UK then? And what state will two decades of enforced austerity, isolation and decline have left the UK in...?

They would take us back because we are a big economy Patman. They would also take us back because we add to their security given we are a nuclear power. They also like our financial contributions, our vote piss off Obran, getting rid of red tape in Calais, trade, friendship little things like that. And they would also like to take us back to set an example to everyone else that the grass isn't always greener.

[patman post]

I agree with most of this but the EU would welcome us back if we asked and may even give us our rebate back (but not a certainty). I doubt the government would do such a thing today given that is a big admittance of our stupidity, but if was want growth, a CU is a good compromise I suspect and a better one is joining the single market.

Do you really think the EU would welcome the UK back like it had never been gone?

I don't see it.

Apart from the "City of London" as a financial centre, what does the UK have that the EU would like to have brought to the party? It can't be the market of 66m people, because it's there anyway. It can't be the UK's industrial base, that's been in decline for decades. And I doubt it's the UK's lively traditional and advanced Arts Scene — these are always more revered the more distanced they are.

Personally, I'd like the UK back in as a full member as it was. But I do not see EU members unanimously agreeing to the UK rejoining. Not do I see enough Brexit voters changing their minds to allow it to happen.

Perhaps in 20 years, when the rump of Brexit voters have died off, there could be a chance.  But what's going to be left of the UK then? And what state will two decades of enforced austerity, isolation and decline have left the UK in...?

[B0ycey]

 I fully support joining the Euro , and wish to see open borders completely resumed to the point i wish the UK would join Schengen.

This is where we part ways Sean. But you're a good egg. Greece taught me the consequences of not having control of your own monetary policy. And Schengen would mean refugees will be catching trains rather than dingees.

[Sean]

Adopting the euro would probably be a pre-condition of rejoining the EU as a full member. That's one of the reasons I don't see the UK returning to full membership.

Conditions and opinions in 2018 were vastly different from today. EEA membership might now be acceptable to both former Brexiteers and the EU

One benefit, of the UK's EU membership with its own currency, was its ability to set its own monetary policy. And, admittedly, the GBP is way below the USD and the euro (and yen) as a reserve currency, but its ranking does help in raising loans — and the UK is going to be borrowing for decades yet...

Norway style membership is nothing new. The uk having this relationship with the EU has been touted since as far back as 2016 if not slightly before. Repeatedly , Norwegian politicians have said they would not support it in any way . This was simply a sop to soft brexiters . As for the Euro , i would happily allow monetary policy decisions to be taken away from the UK and handed over to the adults . I fully support joining the Euro , and wish to see open borders completely resumed to the point i wish the UK would join Schengen.I fully expect Keir to take us back into the EU as full members .

[patman post]

Your pardon. I have to say this "Norway " option seems like fantasy. Full EU membership , and more integration is the way forward. I would happily join the Euro.





https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan

Adopting the euro would probably be a pre-condition of rejoining the EU as a full member. That's one of the reasons I don't see the UK returning to full membership.

Conditions and opinions in 2018 were vastly different from today. EEA membership might now be acceptable to both former Brexiteers and the EU

One benefit, of the UK's EU membership with its own currency, was its ability to set its own monetary policy. And, admittedly, the GBP is way below the USD and the euro (and yen) as a reserve currency, but its ranking does help in raising loans — and the UK is going to be borrowing for decades yet...

[Sean]

I doubt rejoining (or stepping back in) will be an option. The UK was a senior member on — mostly thanks to the blessed Margaret — very favourable terms. It threw that away.

In my opinion — unless it was extremely lucky, or had something very special the EU wanted — the only way the UK could reassociate itself more closely with the EU would be through a Norwegian-style EEA membership...

Your pardon. I have to say this "Norway " option seems like fantasy. Full EU membership , and more integration is the way forward. I would happily join the Euro.

Norwegian politicians reject UK's Norway-plus Brexit plan

Norwegian MP says it is not in either country's interest for UK to use trade agreement

Senior Norwegian politicians and business figures have rejected Norway-plus, the increasingly touted British cross-party plan for the UK to leave the EU but join Norway in a free trade trade area inside the EU single market.

They attacked the idea as "neither in Norway nor the UK's interest". The UK would need Norway's permission to join its Efta club.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan