More Boris lockdown breaches

Scott777 · May 28, 2023, 05:39:46 PM

Quote from: Unlucky4Sum on May 28, 2023, 11:55:29 AM
But you're still pretending only 35,000 died from it in the UK despite being your rationale being shredded over and over

It hasn't been "shredded" at all. First of all, there is no way to know how many died from Covid, because if you had a cold, and got tested (as many people did a lot), using PCR which has a pathetic level of accuracy, then eventually you will get a positive result, and therefore most cases of colds or the flu would be ASSUMED to be Covid, so if an elderly person dies, they ASSUME it was Covid. The figures are junk. Only total deaths are relevant.

Scott777 · May 28, 2023, 05:35:04 PM

Quote from: Nick on May 28, 2023, 11:51:09 AM
Unlike Scott, I'm not denying Covid,

I have said several times on this forum, I had Covid 3 times. The original strain in February 2020, then Delta, then Omicron. It started like the flu (basically), then got easier with each variant. (And I guess I must be superman, cos aint got no jab). 😉

Scott777 · May 28, 2023, 05:24:00 PM

Quote from: Scott777 on May 27, 2023, 06:15:44 PM
"When we say that a death was 'due to' COVID-19, we mean that COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death, because it was either the only health condition mentioned on the death certificate".

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on May 28, 2023, 11:37:08 AM
"Due to covid" is only where covid is the UNDERLYING CAUSE ie when COVID is mentioned in part 1 *not* when COVID is mentioned in part 2

I'm afraid you are mis-interpreting "UNDERLYING CAUSE". It cannot mean only when mentioned in part 1, because that contradicts the first quote above, where "UNDERLYING CAUSE" is given as a number of options, including when it's the only health condition mentioned on the death certificate. That does not say anything about "only in part 1".

BeElBeeBub · May 28, 2023, 11:56:51 AM

Quote from: Nick on May 28, 2023, 11:14:17 AM
If I'd broken my leg previously it would not be put on the DC, so why in my sisters case was Covid put on there when it had zero to do with her death? This is why the 120K is wrong and doesn't show up in the data.

Your leg wouldn't show up if it didn't either cause or contribute (PT 1 & 2 respectively) to your death.

You don't necessarily have to still be suffering from a condition for it to contribute or even cause your death.

Again, read the guidance.

If you have your sister's DC, look at it. If COVID was listed in part 1 she would be one of the 141k "due to covid". If it's not listed in part 1 she wouldn't be.

If we had misattributed a significant number of "normal" deaths, it would be quite the coincidence that the excess deaths in 2020 & 21 are similar to the number of supposed COVID deaths.

This is what you would expect of a pandemic and not what you would expect if we had large scale misidentification of death causes.

Unlucky4Sum · May 28, 2023, 11:55:29 AM

Quote from: Nick on May 28, 2023, 11:51:09 AM
Unlike Scott, I'm not denying Covid, one of my mates died FROM it. I'm saying the numbers are wrong, and even mentioning it on a DC when they have fully recovered from it is wrong.

But you're still pretending only 35,000 died from it in the UK despite being your rationale being shredded over and over

Nick · May 28, 2023, 11:51:09 AM

Quote from: Unlucky4Sum on May 28, 2023, 11:43:33 AM
You and I have patiently tried explaining to Nick and Scott what they are so so wrong but some people don't like their misconceptions confused by facts do they.

It's far more important to some people to deny what Covid was (and to an extent is) and to imagine dark conspiracies than actually think it through. Very sad.

Unlike Scott, I'm not denying Covid, one of my mates died FROM it. I'm saying the numbers are wrong, and even mentioning it on a DC when they have fully recovered from it is wrong.

Unlucky4Sum · May 28, 2023, 11:43:33 AM

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on May 28, 2023, 11:37:08 AM
<Head in hands>
Again, here is the ONS itself explaining what is "due to covid" and what is "involving COVID"

"Due to covid" is only where covid is the UNDERLYING CAUSE ie when COVID is mentioned in part 1 *not* when COVID is mentioned in part 2

And covid is *only* mentioned in part 1 if it is part of the fatal chain of events.

It's legitimate to point out "involving COVID" deaths may include your hypothetical bus victim. It might do (but only if COVID contributed. It wouldn't be on part 2 if it didn't contribute)

But "due to" count i(141k for 2020&21) is specifically designed to avoid those cases.

You and I have patiently tried explaining to Nick and Scott what they are so so wrong but some people don't like their misconceptions confused by facts do they.

It's far more important to some people to deny what Covid was (and to an extent is) and to imagine dark conspiracies than actually think it through. Very sad.

BeElBeeBub · May 28, 2023, 11:37:08 AM

Quote from: Scott777 on May 28, 2023, 10:26:36 AM
Wrong, according to your previous quote. Being hit by a bus is not a medical condition. So I can only repeat the thing that you don't seem to be able to understand. Your own quote said if Covid is the only condition, then it goes in the "due to covid" count.

<Head in hands>
Again, here is the ONS itself explaining what is "due to covid" and what is "involving COVID"

QuoteDoctors are required by law to certify the cause of death 'to the best of their knowledge and belief'. That means they use their medical expertise to decide the cause based on symptoms, physical examination, hospital records, laboratory tests, and all the other information available.

QuoteA doctor certifying a death can list all causes in the chain of events that led to the death and pre-existing conditions that may have contributed to the death, and this is used to determine an underlying cause of death. We use the term "due to COVID-19" when referring only to deaths for which COVID-19 was the underlying cause. When taking into account all of the deaths that had COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or as contributing to the death, we use the term "involving COVID-19".

"Due to covid" is only where covid is the UNDERLYING CAUSE ie when COVID is mentioned in part 1 *not* when COVID is mentioned in part 2

And covid is *only* mentioned in part 1 if it is part of the fatal chain of events.

It's legitimate to point out "involving COVID" deaths may include your hypothetical bus victim. It might do (but only if COVID contributed. It wouldn't be on part 2 if it didn't contribute)

But "due to" count i(141k for 2020&21) is specifically designed to avoid those cases.

Nick · May 28, 2023, 11:14:17 AM

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on May 28, 2023, 09:10:05 AM
You realise that isn't a real DC? It was made up to illustrate the multiple field nature of death scertifixstw and how they are designed to allow things to be on the death certificate as contributor conditions but not as underlying causes.

In that Hypothetical statistical cause of death would be RTA as it was the lowest line of "part 1"

Again in direct you to the guidance for filling in DCs

As you can see the guidance directs that the underlying cause of death can be an accident which produces the fatal injury.

So an asymptomatic (or even symptomatic) person who was hit by a bus would not be counted in the "due to covid" count because the cause of death would be "hit by a bus", despite covid possibly being mentioned in part 2 (contributing causes). They would be in the "involving COVID" count. Which is why the ONS (and me) have been at pains to point out and clarify the differences.

As I said, the death certificate system has been designed especially to allow for fairly fine grained statistical analysis. They are an important part of public health world wide. The ONS are professional statisticians who are well practiced in analysing exactly this sort of data.

How do you think we know the number of people who die of obesity related conditions? How do we know the most common causes of death for certain age groups?

If I'd broken my leg previously it would not be put on the DC, so why in my sisters case was Covid put on there when it had zero to do with her death? This is why the 120K is wrong and doesn't show up in the data.

Scott777 · May 28, 2023, 10:26:36 AM

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on May 28, 2023, 09:10:05 AM
You realise that isn't a real DC? It was made up to illustrate the multiple field nature of death scertifixstw and how they are designed to allow things to be on the death certificate as contributor conditions but not as underlying causes.

an asymptomatic (or even symptomatic) person who was hit by a bus would not be counted in the "due to covid" count because the cause of death would be "hit by a bus",

Wrong, according to your previous quote. Being hit by a bus is not a medical condition. So I can only repeat the thing that you don't seem to be able to understand. Your own quote said if Covid is the only condition, then it goes in the "due to covid" count.

BeElBeeBub · May 28, 2023, 09:15:27 AM

Some examples taken from the guidance

Ia. Pulmonary embolism
Ib. Fractured neck of femur
Ic. Tripped on loose floor rug at home
II. Left sided weakness and difficulty with balance since haemorrhagic stroke 5 years ago; hemiarthroplasty 2 days after fracture

Cause of death for statistical purposes, would be tripping on a rug

Ia. Carcinomatosis
Ib. Bronchogenic carcinoma upper lobe left lung
Ic. Smoked 30 cigarettes a day
II. Chronic bronchitis and ischaemic heart disease.

This person's underlying cause was 30 a day

And so on

BeElBeeBub · May 28, 2023, 09:10:05 AM

Quote from: Scott777 on May 27, 2023, 11:28:32 PM
No, you said "Crush injuries due to RTA", so that means crush injuries is a cause of death. RTA cannot cause crush injuries. There is no such condition as "Crush injuries". Therefore there is only one condition on your example, and that is Covid.

You realise that isn't a real DC? It was made up to illustrate the multiple field nature of death scertifixstw and how they are designed to allow things to be on the death certificate as contributor conditions but not as underlying causes.

In that Hypothetical statistical cause of death would be RTA as it was the lowest line of "part 1"

Again in direct you to the guidance for filling in DCs

QuoteYou are asked to start with the immediate, direct cause of death on line Ia, then to go back through the sequence of events or conditions that led to death on subsequent lines, until you reach the one that started the fatal sequence. If the certificate has been completed properly, the condition on the lowest completed line of part I will have caused all of the conditions on the lines above it. This initiating condition, on the lowest line of part I will usually be selected as the underlying cause of death, following the ICD coding rules. WHO defines the underlying cause of death as "a) the disease or injury which initiated the train of morbid events leading directly to death, or b) the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury".

As you can see the guidance directs that the underlying cause of death can be an accident which produces the fatal injury.

So an asymptomatic (or even symptomatic) person who was hit by a bus would not be counted in the "due to covid" count because the cause of death would be "hit by a bus", despite covid possibly being mentioned in part 2 (contributing causes). They would be in the "involving COVID" count. Which is why the ONS (and me) have been at pains to point out and clarify the differences.

As I said, the death certificate system has been designed especially to allow for fairly fine grained statistical analysis. They are an important part of public health world wide. The ONS are professional statisticians who are well practiced in analysing exactly this sort of data.

How do you think we know the number of people who die of obesity related conditions? How do we know the most common causes of death for certain age groups?

Scott777 · May 27, 2023, 11:28:32 PM

Quote from: BeElBeeBub on May 27, 2023, 07:54:47 PM
the "underlying cause of death" is the lowest line of *Part 1*. So in that case quoted RTA. So that case would *NOT* be counted as "due to covid". It would however be counted as "involving COVID"

Hope that clears it up.

No, you said "Crush injuries due to RTA", so that means crush injuries is a cause of death. RTA cannot cause crush injuries. There is no such condition as "Crush injuries". Therefore there is only one condition on your example, and that is Covid.

BeElBeeBub · May 27, 2023, 07:58:50 PM

Quote from: patman post on May 27, 2023, 02:58:02 PM
There were also plans to turn ice rinks into makeshift mortuaries — and extra mortuary space was made and used.

Trench graves were dug in east London and south-east London, in response to high death rates and some religious requirements to bury bodies within 24 hours.

The Nightingale Hospitals were probably intentionally the more visible because they could be regarded as a positive, a hope, because the early warning signs had not been by government and treatment for Covid was hit-and-miss, and mass vaccination was still a way off.

Many activities, recommendations and schemes were hurriedly wheeled out (some, no doubt, in panic). Mistakes were made and people may still be held accountable. But overall, the way relevant authorities both reacted and led the response to Covid, saved thousands of lives in the UK. Unfortunately, over 200,000 deaths (and still counting) have been recorded to date with Covid as a cause. Until all inquiries are complete, I'm prepared to be guided by official figures...

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

I should add that I got an inkling of how close the NHS came to collapse when a friend of mine was drafted into ICU. She was an active participant, managing several patients, making decisions etc.

She was a Physiotherapist.

The NHS were so desperate physiotherapists were being drafted in as ICU nurses.

BeElBeeBub · May 27, 2023, 07:54:47 PM

Quote from: Scott777 on May 27, 2023, 06:15:44 PM
Oh well, since you seem unable to answer a simple question, which of these are medical conditions, I'll have to help you out. Only Covid is. So following the guidelines you provided, would your example be counted as "due to Covid"? Try to guess using the power of your mind.

"When we say that a death was 'due to' COVID-19, we mean that COVID-19 was the underlying cause of death, because it was either the only health condition mentioned on the death certificate".

Again here is the ONS explaining Link

Quote[font=Open Sans, -apple-system, .SFNSText-Regular, San Francisco, Roboto, Segoe UI, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif]A doctor certifying a death can list all causes in the chain of events that led to the death and pre-existing conditions that may have contributed to the death, and this is used to determine an [font=Open Sans, -apple-system, .SFNSText-Regular, San Francisco, Roboto, Segoe UI, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif]underlying cause of death[/font][font=Open Sans, -apple-system, .SFNSText-Regular, San Francisco, Roboto, Segoe UI, Helvetica Neue, sans-serif]. We use the term "due to COVID-19" when referring only to deaths for which COVID-19 was the underlying cause. When taking into account all of the deaths that had COVID-19 mentioned on the death certificate, whether as an underlying cause or as contributing to the death, we use the term "involving COVID-19".[/font][/font][/size][/color]

And for clarity here is the guidance on filling in DCs including what is an "underlying cause" and what is a "contributing cause)

The lowest line of Part 1 is the "underlying cause of death". Here is the guidance.

QuoteYou are asked to start with the immediate, direct cause of death on line Ia, then to go back through the sequence of events or conditions that led to death on subsequent lines, until you reach the one that started the fatal sequence. If the certificate has been completed properly, the condition on the lowest completed line of part I will have caused all of the conditions on the lines above it. This initiating condition, on the lowest line of part I will usually be selected as the underlying cause of death, following the ICD coding rules. WHO defines the underlying cause of death as "a) the disease or injury which initiated the train of morbid events leading directly to death, or b) the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury".

The guidance for part 2, contributing causes, is:

QuoteYou should also enter any other diseases, injuries, conditions, or events that contributed to the death, but were not part of the direct sequence, in part two of the MCCD. The conditions mentioned in part two must be known or suspected to have contributed to the death, not merely be other conditions which were present at the time.

So to answer you question, using the quoted example, research and the power of my mind, is that the "underlying cause of death" is the lowest line of *Part 1*. So in that case quoted RTA. So that case would *NOT* be counted as "due to covid". It would however be counted as "involving COVID"

Hope that clears it up.