More Boris lockdown breaches

[papasmurf]

It's all in the link

What link?

[BeElBeeBub]

Where does it say 99.93% ?

They conducted 207,730 tests.

They got 159 positive results.

If *every single positive* was false (i.e. not one person in the 207,730 actually had covid) you ha e a.macimum false positive rate of 159/207,730.

That is a rate of 0.000765416647

The specificity is 1-0.000765416647

That's 0.999234583
Which is 99.9%
Ant that is the absolute worst case. They looked for evidence that those 159 cases were false, and didn't see any of the statistical "tells".
It's all in the link

[BeElBeeBub]

99.93% would not be very high, so exactly how high is it?

It is pretty high, it s 1 in 1000.

And bear in mind that is the absolute minimum. That is assuming that every single positive was false. That's highly unlikely.

As I said, they looked at other measures to see if there was any indication that a high proportion of the 159 positives were false. They didn't detect any indication that was the case. It is highly likely the vast majority of those 159 positives were positive.  Say only 10% were false negatives, you then have 15  false negatives out of over 200,000.  Which gets you 99.993% specificity.

However you slice it, the rate.of false positives is orders of magnitude lower than the positive rates we were getting.

[Scott777]

The specificity is *at least* 99.93% .  That's pretty close to 100%.

Where does it say 99.93% ?

[BeElBeeBub]

I'm glad they are, but still not high enough.  They need to be very very close to 100% for the data to say anything meaningful.  But go ahead, what is the specificity?  You will need to be extremely precise.

I look forward to seeing the evidence of this claim.  We also need the CT, to ensure it's the same used for the mass testing. If the former CT was very low, then it's possible.

The specificity is *at least* 99.93% and that is assuming the very unlikely case that every one of the 159 positive tests was a false positive.  That's pretty close to 100%.

As for evidence.

Link

The article points out they can further estimate how many of those.159.were false positives by looking at the ratio of symptom/no.symptoms between the assumed false positive and negative groups.  It's pretty technical so just go and read it.

Upshot is the rate of false positives is extremely low, if the PCR said you had covid, it is very unlikely that you didn't.

[Scott777]

The specificity of the PCR tests are very high.

I'm glad they are, but still not high enough.  They need to be very very close to 100% for the data to say anything meaningful.  But go ahead, what is the specificity?  You will need to be extremely precise.

We happened to run a very large trail. Possibly one of the.largest ever conducted for a test.

In the period from 31 July to 10 September 2020 just under 210k samples were tested.  Only 159 positives were detected.

I look forward to seeing the evidence of this claim.  We also need the CT, to ensure it's the same used for the mass testing. If the former CT was very low, then it's possible.

[Unlucky4Sum]

 . . .The total for the same 2020 and 2021 period via that method.is.around 141k.
 . . .

Actually it's 151k and that's just England and the England figure is now 191k.  Link to Gov data download (England)

Set it to UK and it's 174k by end 2021 and 223k as of two weeks ago.  Link to Gov data download (UK)

[BeElBeeBub]

Precisely, BUT there is a two year lag in final death stats for any given year.

Yes there is a.lag. I don't think it's 2.years (given we have 2021 already) but it is fairly long.

And the reason for the lag is the quantity of cross checking that goes on. Modern computers can crunch the data pretty fast. What takes.time.is hand checking and testing the results to make sure there isn't a FUBAR.

[BeElBeeBub]

BS ^.  You proved NOTHING.  When politicians, including Dominic Raab and Boris Johnson, and the inventor of PCR, tell you PCR is not a reliable test for infection, try to pay attention.  If there is even a small chance of false positive, and you test people a million times, they are certain to eventually get a false positive.

The specificity of the PCR tests are very high.

They are extremely unlikely to give a false positive (say you have covid when you don't)

How.can we be sure?

We happened to run a very large trail. Possibly one of the.largest ever conducted for a test.

In the period from 31 July to 10 September 2020 just under 210k samples were tested.  Only 159 positives were detected.  If we take a worst case assumption that every single one of those positives was a false positive (which is unlikely) then the false positive rate is 159 /210k, which comes out at 0.07% *at worst*

In contrast there have been 20m positive tests so far out of 500m tests (numbers rounded).  That's a.4% positive rate (it was.much higher at certain points.

So we have a positive rate.of 4% of tests taken and a *worst case* false positive.rate.of.0.07%

  

[papasmurf]

I should point out the ONS and it's staff are very experienced in the compilation of death statistics. They are the ones that produce important public health data like what the most common diseases are, cancer survival rates, etc.

Precisely, BUT there is a two year lag in final death stats for any given year.

[BeElBeeBub]

No we have not 'shredded that idiocy'

it is a fact that Boris had to make a statement that the numbers counted as dying from Covid were inflated because they took as gospel the fact that if you died within 30 days of a positive test you died of covid.

a one off adjustment was made to the ons figures.

As professor brian cox says of the big bang 'we know it happenned because you can fucking see it'

but for literally months after that howler which i freely admit might have been the most idiotic honest mistake ever and not a deliberate attempt by Ferguson the Covid spreading carpet shagger to terrorise people into believing his bullshit, every night the BBC and Shy news said 'today another x people died of Covid' while the caption on the screen said in tiny print this was the total number dying of any reason within 30 days of a covid positive test.

as i have repeatedly said, i know and have met to chat with a few notable people who are no longer with us thanks to the fucking chinese pox. Two of my wife's work colleagues at tbe immigration tribunal are dead because some fucking illegal brought the fucking pox into this country and her courtroom where he gave it to everone including my wife who gave it to me and i nearly fucking died of it.

BUT that doesn't excuse the fucking lies told by the BBC and Sky News long, long after the 'error' was revealed and corrected. They did the campaign to warn peolke of tbe very real dangers absolutely no fucking favours at all.

As you point out the 'daily" figures were qualified with (deaths within 30 days of a positive test)

There were obvious flaws with that measure.  However it was very fast to calculate, the result being available within 24 hours. That speed is necessary during a fast.moving pandemic.

The eventual total, using this method, for 2020 and 2021 was about 177k

The more accurate total is "deaths due to covid" defined as "deaths where COVID is the underlying cause" as taken from the death certificate.

That calculation necessarily takes longer to generate, normally 14 days to get most of the results.

The total for the same 2020 and 2021 period via that method.is.around 141k.

I should point out the ONS and it's staff are very experienced in the compilation of death statistics. They are the ones that produce important public health data like what the most common diseases are, cancer survival rates, etc.

[Scott777]

 people who took a long time to recover, and some suffering life changing after effects which now seem to be permanent.

Caused by what?  Vaccination?  I didn't take the needle, and I was fine with Covid.

[Unlucky4Sum]

BS ^.  You proved NOTHING.  When politicians, including Dominic Raab and Boris Johnson, and the inventor of PCR, tell you PCR is not a reliable test for infection, try to pay attention.  If there is even a small chance of false positive, and you test people a million times, they are certain to eventually get a false positive.

How strange you never back your wild statements with any credible links

[Unlucky4Sum]

No we have not 'shredded that idiocy'

it is a fact that Boris had to make a statement that the numbers counted as dying from Covid were inflated because they took as gospel the fact that if you died within 30 days of a positive test you died of covid.

a one off adjustment was made to the ons figures.

As professor brian cox says of the big bang 'we know it happenned because you can fucking see it'

but for literally months after that howler which i freely admit might have been the most idiotic honest mistake ever and not a deliberate attempt by Ferguson the Covid spreading carpet shagger to terrorise people into believing his bullshit, every night the BBC and Shy news said 'today another x people died of Covid' while the caption on the screen said in tiny print this was the total number dying of any reason within 30 days of a covid positive test.

as i have repeatedly said, i know and have met to chat with a few notable people who are no longer with us thanks to the fucking chinese pox. Two of my wife's work colleagues at tbe immigration tribunal are dead because some fucking illegal brought the fucking pox into this country and her courtroom where he gave it to everone including my wife who gave it to me and i nearly fucking died of it.

BUT that doesn't excuse the fucking lies told by the BBC and Sky News long, long after the 'error' was revealed and corrected. They did the campaign to warn peolke of tbe very real dangers absolutely no fucking favours at all.

John that's just not true.  The broadcasters and government and ONS regularly qualified the figures as being 'deaths within 28 days' 
  
A fair shorthand for these was Covid deaths.   I find it rather sad that apparently you want a post mortem to have been conducted on every such victim to get a more precise figure.  As someone with a science background surely you know it it never possible to get an exactly precise figure of a changing value.  

I hope you also know that there were some deaths of Covid not listed as such but it's less than fair of you not to be whining about those as well.   Meantime your extended rant just gives succour to those loonies who pretend Covid was a hoax, that is was 'just a flu' or even those who wish to pretend only a few died of it.

It was a fucking disaster that killed and ruined many lives.

[papasmurf]

as i have repeatedly said, i know and have met to chat with a few notable people who are no longer with us thanks to the fucking chinese pox. Two of my wife's work colleagues at tbe immigration tribunal are dead because some fucking illegal brought the fucking pox into this country and her courtroom where he gave it to everone including my wife who gave it to me and i nearly fucking died of it.

My experience as well, a number of dead, people who took a long time to recover, and some suffering life changing after effects which now seem to be permanent.