Still waiting for those benefits.

[BeElBeeBub]

But no data showing our ever decreasing reliance on EU trade.

Our TOTAL trade with the EU has continually grown (less global dips eg Pandemic)
Our EXPORTS to the EU have been roughly flat since the early 2010's.

Our reliance on EU trade is not as simple as % of exports, % of total trade etc.

Take my friend the carpenter 
He ships felled trees to a local saw.mill
He buys milled wood from the saw.mill.
He sells wooden items to the public.

As he sells more items to the public the share of his trade is buying and selling with the sawmill has fallen 

His exports to the saw.mill have been flat for a few years (he only has so much he can sell them) but his imports have increased, in part because he needs more milled wood to make his products he sells to the wider public.


Would you say the saw mill is of declining importance to him?

Would he be better off canceling his account with them so he no longer gets easy, next day ordering, a low rate on deliveries or preferred rates?

[BeElBeeBub]

Dunno, but according to the House of Commons Library, in 2022 the UK's exports to the EU totalled £340 billions, not £770 billions. I don't know where you are getting your figures from, but you seem to be quoting the Islington Gazette

The figures are from the House of Commons Library.


Exports were 340bn, imports 430bn therefore TOTAL trade (which is imports plus exports) is 770bn

Note I said TOTAL TRADE in the post. Try to read and understand before commenting, it will save everyone some time.

If you want to look at just EXPORTS
EU 340bn
US 170bn
CN 40bn
IN 15bn

Again the EU is, by a huge margin, the biggest destination.

[papasmurf]

But no data showing our ever decreasing reliance on EU trade.

This latest set of stats does not paint a rosy picture.

UPTICK IN EXPORTS BUT TRADE WITH THE EU REMAINS WEAK (britishchambers.org.uk)

[Nick]

If you look carefully £770 billion is exports and imports.

UK total (exp+imp) trade with various partners
EU ~ 770bn
US ~ 280bn
China ~ 110bn
India ~ 35bn

But no data showing our ever decreasing reliance on EU trade. 

[papasmurf]

Dunno, but according to the House of Commons Library, in 2022 the UK's exports to the EU totalled £340 billions, not £770 billions. I don't know where you are getting your figures from, but you seem to be quoting the Islington Gazette

If you look carefully £770 billion is exports and imports.

UK total (exp+imp) trade with various partners
EU ~ 770bn
US ~ 280bn
China ~ 110bn
India ~ 35bn

[Borchester]

Again, you are definitely misunderstanding what the graph shows

It's literally everything to do with import/exports.

The definition of "balance of trade" is exports minus imports.

The balance of trade doesn't tell you much (if anything) about a given partners importance to a country's economy.

Even a negative balance doesn't denote if the relationship was good or bad.

My trade balance with my builders merchants and local fuel station is massively negative. Should I stop doing business with them?

Total trade is a better measure.of the importance

UK total (exp+imp) trade with various partners
EU ~ 770bn
US ~ 280bn
China ~ 110bn
India ~ 35bn

Which one in the above list is the most important partner?

Dunno, but according to the House of Commons Library, in 2022 the UK's exports to the EU totalled £340 billions, not £770 billions. I don't know where you are getting your figures from, but you seem to be quoting the Islington Gazette

[Nick]

Again, you are definitely misunderstanding what the graph shows

It's literally everything to do with import/exports.

The definition of "balance of trade" is exports minus imports.

The balance of trade doesn't tell you much (if anything) about a given partners importance to a country's economy.

Even a negative balance doesn't denote if the relationship was good or bad.

My trade balance with my builders merchants and local fuel station is massively negative. Should I stop doing business with them?

Total trade is a better measure.of the importance

UK total (exp+imp) trade with various partners
EU ~ 770bn
US ~ 280bn
China ~ 110bn
India ~ 35bn

Which one in the above list is the most important partner?

And what were the figures in 2011?

[BeElBeeBub]

No, look again. It's balance of EU trade and non-EU trade, nothing to do with import export. It shows were were moving away from the EU in the 5 years leading up to the vote.

Again, you are definitely misunderstanding what the graph shows 

It's literally everything to do with import/exports.

The definition of "balance of trade" is exports minus imports.

The balance of trade doesn't tell you much (if anything) about a given partners importance to a country's economy.

Even a negative balance doesn't denote if the relationship was good or bad. 

My trade balance with my builders merchants and local fuel station is massively negative. Should I stop doing business with them?

Total trade is a better measure.of the importance 

UK total (exp+imp) trade with various partners 
EU ~ 770bn
US ~ 280bn
China ~ 110bn
India ~ 35bn

Which one in the above list is the most important partner?

[Unlucky4Sum]

You really are living up to you reputation, not a nice person at all.
Also not capable of looking at your own data.
Post #41 shows 2 graphs, U.K. V EU, the trends are almost identical. Where do you get your 2014-2021 data from? I'd stay off the horse tranquillisers if I were you.

So your definition of 'not a nice person' is someone who refutes you using real data.  Well in my book someone that accuses another of being on horse tranquillisers is hardly an angel, anything but in fact. 

Anyway the data comes from https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/indicators  and https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/indicators and quite clearly shows the UK growth was worse than the Eurozone's 2014-21

[Unlucky4Sum]

I'll give you a clue, it's an anagram of 'We were still in the EU until Dec 31 2020' so what was causing the imaginary Brexit crash when we hadn't left?

Investor and business fright.  

[Nick]

So in 7 years 2014-21 we get trivial net growth and the Eurozone gets massive growth.  Now what happened in between to cause that difference?

Clue:  it's an anagram of Tribex

I'll give you a clue, it's an anagram of 'We were still in the EU until Dec 31 2020' so what was causing the imaginary Brexit crash when we hadn't left?

[Nick]

I'd suggest you are misinterpretating the graph (and associated figures)

Firstly, the graph is *balance* i.e. net. The graph shows that over time we have increasingly imported more stuff from the EU than we have exported, and likewise we have also exported more to the rest of world then we have imported from them.

Looking at that and saying "oh we'd be better off ditching the EU" is bone headed.

The UK economy was well integrated with the EU. We imported lots of stuff which we then incorporated into things we sold to non-EU countries.

Imagine McDonald's looking at their accounts and saying "we import lots of beef and potatoes from farmers, but sell hardly any big Macs to farmers - we should make it harder for us to buy beef and potatoes from farmers and concentrate on selling burgers to spotty teenagers in souped up hatchbacks who we have a huge trade surplus with".

Things made with EU components are now a bit more expensive to make in the UK as opposed to the EU.  That makes things made in the UK more expensive on the international market. That's a bit of a headwind all our manufacturers have to deal with.

As for the hidden effects of brexit. They are not so much hidden as co-mingled with the other events. Untangling the exact amount of each effect is very difficult. Not impossible, and there have been several attempts. For example.itcs estimated food shoppers now pay an extra £7bn due to brexit related costs

But the difficulty in unscrambling them gives ample space for brexiters to say "ah! It wasn't brexit it was Covid/Ukraine/Dieselgate/whatever"

No, look again. It's balance of EU trade and non-EU trade, nothing to do with import export. It shows were were moving away from the EU in the 5 years leading up to the vote. 

[Nick]

So in 7 years 2014-21 we get trivial net growth and the Eurozone gets massive growth.  Now what happened in between to cause that difference?

Clue:  it's an anagram of Tribex

You really are living up to you reputation, not a nice person at all. 
Also not capable of looking at your own data. 
Post #41 shows 2 graphs, U.K. V EU, the trends are almost identical. Where do you get your 2014-2021 data from? I'd stay off the horse tranquillisers if I were you. 

[BeElBeeBub]

As per the definition below, if Brexit is being concealed, how do you know it is doing anything?
Also, the UK's peaks and troughs exactly mirror all other countries in Europe, how do you explain that? This is some kind of strange faith that you Remainers keep praying will show it's self. It hasn't manifested it's self yet but you keep the faith that it is there and will show it's self one day.


The fact that the UK isn't in recession and the EU is must be sending you into a spin, especially when all the Mystic Megs in the world said the UK would go into recession and the EU wouldn't.

The fact that you put so much truck on being part of a corrupt cartel is beyond me, especially when we are now free to trade with whom we wish. Our GDP is higher than 2019
The graph below shows how the UK was moving away from the EU years before the vote ever took place.

I'd suggest you are misinterpretating the graph (and associated figures)

Firstly, the graph is *balance* i.e. net. The graph shows that over time we have increasingly imported more stuff from the EU than we have exported, and likewise we have also exported more to the rest of world then we have imported from them.

Looking at that and saying "oh we'd be better off ditching the EU" is bone headed.

The UK economy was well integrated with the EU. We imported lots of stuff which we then incorporated into things we sold to non-EU countries.

Imagine McDonald's looking at their accounts and saying "we import lots of beef and potatoes from farmers, but sell hardly any big Macs to farmers - we should make it harder for us to buy beef and potatoes from farmers and concentrate on selling burgers to spotty teenagers in souped up hatchbacks who we have a huge trade surplus with".

Things made with EU components are now a bit more expensive to make in the UK as opposed to the EU.  That makes things made in the UK more expensive on the international market. That's a bit of a headwind all our manufacturers have to deal with.

As for the hidden effects of brexit. They are not so much hidden as co-mingled with the other events. Untangling the exact amount of each effect is very difficult. Not impossible, and there have been several attempts. For example.itcs estimated food shoppers now pay an extra £7bn due to brexit related costs 

But the difficulty in unscrambling them gives ample space for brexiters to say "ah! It wasn't brexit it was Covid/Ukraine/Dieselgate/whatever"

[Unlucky4Sum]

We were on an economic roll in 2014?
2021, 2022 and 2023 have all outstripped 2014, and that taking Covid and Putin into consideration! What are you smoking?

So in 7 years 2014-21 we get trivial net growth and the Eurozone gets massive growth.  Now what happened in between to cause that difference?
 
Clue:  it's an anagram of Tribex