Do you every get the feeling that life is not too bad ?

[Nick]

You were the one who cherry picked the most unrepresentative year, 2020.

Most economists pick 2019 as the last pre coivd year. None of the lock downs or effects happened until 2020.

For example the first China restrictions weren't until 23 Jan. 2023

Italy was the first European country to "lock down" on 21.Feb 2020.

That's why I picked it.

Picking any single year will be fraught, you picked 2018, which happens to be the peak for Germany thus making subsequent growth look worse and so on, you can go round and round arguing over the exact year (or source) to pick.

I'm saying look at the trends, look at multiple sources, look at different measure. For example. We have just been talking about nominal gdp, but there is PPP gdp, GNI, GDP/Capita etc.

Multiple headwinds have battered all the economies,and to different degrees.

Eg the war in Ukraine has hit Germany harder than the UK.

The UK has faced increased trade friction with it's biggest trade partner and aost no significant reductions elsewhere (we shall see where the Indian talks go). We have seen a tightening of our labour market that we have not been able to offset like other EU nations. Conventional wisdom is that increqced trade friction and labour market tightening are bad for economies.

Even if you take 2019, the result is the same, UK fairs better than France and Germany.

[BeElBeeBub]

You're cherry picking your dates, take it from 2018, which was the last normal year before Covid.


Germany have gone from 4.0 to around 4.15

UK has gone from 2.9 to 3.15

France has nearly changed at all.

Italy is worse off.

How has the U.K. not faired better sine the last normal datum point?

You were the one who cherry picked the most unrepresentative year, 2020.

Most economists pick 2019 as the last pre coivd year. None of the lock downs or effects happened until 2020.

For example the first China restrictions weren't until 23 Jan. 2023

Italy was the first European country to "lock down" on 21.Feb 2020.

That's why I picked it.

Picking any single year will be fraught, you picked 2018, which happens to be the peak for Germany thus making subsequent growth look worse and so on, you can go round and round arguing over the exact year (or source) to pick. 

I'm saying look at the trends, look at multiple sources, look at different measure. For example. We have just been talking about nominal gdp, but there is PPP gdp, GNI, GDP/Capita etc. 

Multiple headwinds have battered all the economies,and to different degrees. 

Eg the war in Ukraine has hit Germany harder than the UK.

The UK has faced increased trade friction with it's biggest trade partner and aost no significant reductions elsewhere (we shall see where the Indian talks go). We have seen a tightening of our labour market that we have not been able to offset like other EU nations. Conventional wisdom is that increqced trade friction and labour market tightening are bad for economies. 

[Nick]

Which is why Brexit is doing so much permanent damage.

Show the figures outlying this damage.

[papasmurf]

Brexit isn't done until we are not governed by any EU law, which we are now.

Which is why Brexit is doing so much permanent damage.

[Nick]

No, one of the graphs (WB) shows the UK had the lowest growth of the 4 in 2020 and (just) the highest growth 21 & 22. Again, if an economy suffered a huge fall it is hardly unexpected that it will have high growth as it surges back to where it was.

The other source (OECD) has the UK 3rd of the 4 in the last quarter and it has been either 3rd or 4th for the last 3 quarters.

So if you want to close your eyes to the bigger picture and just point to the figures from one source for 21 and 22, then yes we are outperforming the other 3 economies

But if you look in context the picture is much more mixed, though better than Germany for sure.

You're cherry picking your dates, take it from 2018, which was the last normal year before Covid. 


Germany have gone from 4.0 to around 4.15

UK has gone from 2.9 to 3.15

France has nearly changed at all.

Italy is worse off. 

How has the U.K. not faired better sine the last normal datum point?

[Nick]

Brexiters seem to be well pissed off.  Always bitching the various deals aren't proper brexit.  You literally started a thread moaning about the Windsor Framework.

The referendum didn't ask about leaving the SM/CU - it wasn't on the paper and multiple Leave spokes people said that "nobody is talking about leaving the single market".

Johnson's hands weren't tied by TM's deal because her deal was never ratified.  He could have started an entirely new deal and arrangement.  His big promise was to solve the NI problem, which he did by picking the "NI defacto stays in the SM/CU" option and lying that his deal didn't do exactly that.

Some idiots bought it.

As a side note his trick was to get the wording of the NI protocol to say front and centre that NI would remain in the customs territory of the UK.  But the next paragraph then said "and the UK will administer that part of it's customs territory in such as way as to follow the SM/CU rules".  This allowed him to to say "look it says NI remains in the UK customs territory" and loads of mugs believed him.  I'm pretty sure I pointed this out at the time.

Brexit isn't done until we are not governed by any EU law, which we are now. 

As I've said at least 10 times before, if the U.K. had just left and unravelled all EU laws that we didn't want, said you're not fishing in any of our waters, the huge gap in your block is your problem unless you make us a proper deal, then they would have come up with a proper deal. This half baked deal, which by the look of it is doing OK as the figures show, was not what we asked for. At least Cameron had the decency to walk away when he knew he couldn't implement what was required, Maybe tried to push through some non-deal which would allow her husband to carry on with his cosy little EU partnership. 

[BeElBeeBub]

The only person that is blind here is you. The graphs above show we are doing better than Germany and France and if you can't see it then you need to stop posting.

No, one of the graphs (WB) shows the UK had the lowest growth of the 4 in 2020 and (just) the highest growth 21 & 22. Again, if an economy suffered a huge fall it is hardly unexpected that it will have high growth as it surges back to where it was. 

The other source (OECD) has the UK 3rd of the 4 in the last quarter and it has been either 3rd or 4th for the last 3 quarters.

So if you want to close your eyes to the bigger picture and just point to the figures from one source for 21 and 22, then yes we are outperforming the other 3 economies

But if you look in context the picture is much more mixed, though better than Germany for sure. 

[BeElBeeBub]

So how are you anyway Beelbud ?  Seems all the leavers on here are quite happy with  their lot and are cracking on with life dispite not getting everything their own way and all the remainiacs are walking around with the raving hump.

Not sure we need another thread where remoaners moan and leavers put them right on historical facts like what the referendum asked us (we will leave the SM and leave the CU ) that Johnsons hands were tied by Mayhems deal or who in the tory party saw supporting Johnson as a road to the top .

Brexiters seem to be well pissed off.  Always bitching the various deals aren't proper brexit.  You literally started a thread moaning about the Windsor Framework.

The referendum didn't ask about leaving the SM/CU - it wasn't on the paper and multiple Leave spokes people said that "nobody is talking about leaving the single market".

Johnson's hands weren't tied by TM's deal because her deal was never ratified.  He could have started an entirely new deal and arrangement.  His big promise was to solve the NI problem, which he did by picking the "NI defacto stays in the SM/CU" option and lying that his deal didn't do exactly that.

Some idiots bought it.

As a side note his trick was to get the wording of the NI protocol to say front and centre that NI would remain in the customs territory of the UK.  But the next paragraph then said "and the UK will administer that part of it's customs territory in such as way as to follow the SM/CU rules".  This allowed him to to say "look it says NI remains in the UK customs territory" and loads of mugs believed him.  I'm pretty sure I pointed this out at the time.

[papasmurf]

 Seems all the leavers on here are quite happy with  their lot 

The ONLY reason I did not vote leave was because I knew the Tories would cock Brexit up big time, and they have.

[Streetwalker]

TM caused much damage by gong for a fairly hard (outside SMCU) Brexit from the get go. Going harder (as the headbangers wanted)would have been even worse.

BJ was the leader of the Leave campaign. If you don't like the Brexit he gave you you shouldn't have voted Leave.

LT was an idiot. A prime example of the "say whatever to further my career" brigade.

RS was a. Leave supporter.


The problem with Brexit headbangers is there is no falsification of their theory. If they try a certain Brexit and it fails, it is simply that the wrong (or often insufficient) Brexit was tried. Not that Brexit itself was flawed and undeliverable from the start. This puts it closer to an article of faith than a rational position.

So how are you anyway Beelbud ?  Seems all the leavers on here are quite happy with  their lot and are cracking on with life dispite not getting everything their own way and all the remainiacs are walking around with the raving hump. 

Not sure we need another thread where remoaners moan and leavers put them right on historical facts like what the referendum asked us (we will leave the SM and leave the CU ) that Johnsons hands were tied by Mayhems deal or who in the tory party saw supporting Johnson as a road to the top .

[Nick]

Nick it is you who needs a guide dog. (Seriously.) I wonder just how bad Brexit needs to get before you notice.

More at link:-

UK again delays post-Brexit import checks on EU food (just-food.com)


August 29, 2023

The full customs checks on imports of medium-risk animal products, plants, plant products and on high-risk food (and feed) of non-animal origin were due to be introduced in October. However, the UK announced today (29 August) the controls would be delayed by another three months.
Previous delays have been blamed on the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine but more recently food industry bodies have warned border checks will worsen food inflation in the UK
Earlier this month, the UK government responded to a report in the Financial Times newspaper suggesting it was once again set to delay the introduction of import checks on fresh food coming from the Continent by saying it was "reflecting on feedback".

The government said today revealed the border checks will be implemented in three stages.

Three months after the controls are brought introduced in January, the UK will introduce documentary and risk-based identity and physical checks on medium-risk animal products, plants, plant products and high-risk food (and feed) of non-animal origin from the EU.



Safety and security declarations for EU imports will then come into force from 31 October 2024.
In a statement, the UK government said: "Having listened to the views of industry, the government has agreed to a delay of three months for the introduction of remaining sanitary and phytosanitary controls, as well as full customs controls for non-qualifying Northern Ireland goods."

Another strawman. That has no bearing on what our current GDP is doing so why post something totally irrelevant? Our GDP contracted less and then grew more than Germany and France since 2020, I can't understand that for you. 
I just passed through immigration at Schiphol airport and I'll be inside the EU for 2 weeks, that will take my total well over 90 days, these buffoons don't know that cause they can't implement the EES as I've said before. 

[papasmurf]

The only person that is blind here is you. The graphs above show we are doing better than Germany and France and if you can't see it then you need to stop posting.

Nick it is you who needs a guide dog. (Seriously.) I wonder just how bad Brexit needs to get before you notice.

More at link:-

UK again delays post-Brexit import checks on EU food (just-food.com)


August 29, 2023

The full customs checks on imports of medium-risk animal products, plants, plant products and on high-risk food (and feed) of non-animal origin were due to be introduced in October. However, the UK announced today (29 August) the controls would be delayed by another three months.
Previous delays have been blamed on the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine but more recently food industry bodies have warned border checks will worsen food inflation in the UK
Earlier this month, the UK government responded to a report in the Financial Times newspaper suggesting it was once again set to delay the introduction of import checks on fresh food coming from the Continent by saying it was "reflecting on feedback".

The government said today revealed the border checks will be implemented in three stages.

Three months after the controls are brought introduced in January, the UK will introduce documentary and risk-based identity and physical checks on medium-risk animal products, plants, plant products and high-risk food (and feed) of non-animal origin from the EU.



Safety and security declarations for EU imports will then come into force from 31 October 2024.
In a statement, the UK government said: "Having listened to the views of industry, the government has agreed to a delay of three months for the introduction of remaining sanitary and phytosanitary controls, as well as full customs controls for non-qualifying Northern Ireland goods."

[Nick]

The problem is the pro-Brexiteers are totally blind to the problems being cause by the Dogs Brexit.

The only person that is blind here is you. The graphs above show we are doing better than Germany and France and if you can't see it then you need to stop posting. 

[BeElBeeBub]

Are you on a wind up bellbud ? The reason Brexit has been a pile of dog shite is because remoaners have been running it . From Theresa Mayhems WA to Sunak the clowns WF we have had nothing but bad decisions for the UK throughout the process . The people that tried to get a better deal than Mayhems give away were Johnson and Truss and look what happened to them

As for anyone who doesnt support brexit  I give you Jeremy Hunt , can't be bothered to look who else is in the cabinet as I guess the Chancellor would be on the hit list if your contention was true . It is noticable that not one  senior figure from vote leave remains in cabinet bar  Gove who has a minor cabinet position

But thats what the tories do when the door swings open there are  always people walking in one direction or another ,its all about whats best for them not whats best for the country .

TM caused much damage by gong for a fairly hard (outside SMCU) Brexit from the get go. Going harder (as the headbangers wanted)would have been even worse.

BJ was the leader of the Leave campaign. If you don't like the Brexit he gave you you shouldn't have voted Leave. 

LT was an idiot. A prime example of the "say whatever to further my career" brigade.

RS was a. Leave supporter. 


The problem with Brexit headbangers is there is no falsification of their theory. If they try a certain Brexit and it fails, it is simply that the wrong (or often insufficient) Brexit was tried. Not that Brexit itself was flawed and undeliverable from the start. This puts it closer to an article of faith than a rational position. 

[Streetwalker]

The problem is that in order to be in a senior position in the Conservative party you need to past the Brexit test.

Anyone who doesn't support Brexit or says it's a bad idea is purged.

This means the talent pool is made up of people who either genuinely believe Brexit is a find idea or don't but are prepared to say it is for career advancement.

The end result is you have idiots or liars (or both) in all the senior conservative positions. Which leads to catastrophically bad management.

Look at the roster of conservative minsters and party seniors.

Is anyone here going to argue Nadine Dorries' level of talent is anywhere near ministerial?

Anyone going to bat for JRM being anything other than a pantomime character?

What extraordinary skill set did Charlotte Owen display to be made a member of Parliament for life?

What sort of party puts Lee Anderson as their chairman?

Yet another way Brexit had damaged the country.

Are you on a wind up bellbud ? The reason Brexit has been a pile of dog shite is because remoaners have been running it . From Theresa Mayhems WA to Sunak the clowns WF we have had nothing but bad decisions for the UK throughout the process . The people that tried to get a better deal than Mayhems give away were Johnson and Truss and look what happened to them 

As for anyone who doesnt support brexit  I give you Jeremy Hunt , can't be bothered to look who else is in the cabinet as I guess the Chancellor would be on the hit list if your contention was true . It is noticable that not one  senior figure from vote leave remains in cabinet bar  Gove who has a minor cabinet position 

But thats what the tories do when the door swings open there are  always people walking in one direction or another ,its all about whats best for them not whats best for the country .