GDP stats

[BeElBeeBub]

The conundrum for you is to explain how the U.K. is fairing better than France and certainly Germany when Brexit is damaging us so much?

No conundrum, we should be doing better.

As I keep saying Brexit is a head wind, or extra drag depending on your preference for analogy.

We will still experience the same ups and downs due to other factors like wars, climate disasters, stock market crashes, China/US recessions etc.

But we will be (in aggregate) hobbled by Brexit.

Do you disagree with either of the following statements

Trade frictions (paperwork, tariffs etc) increase costs and reduce economic gain

The UK has experienced increased trade frictions with a large trading partner in exchange for very few and very slight reductions with minor partners.

If you disagree, whit what specifically - no hand waving etc, specific examples where frictions have reduced or not appeared.

[Nick]

As I said, it depends on the exact methodology. The OECD have one, world bank another, the ONS yet another. All are equally valid, economists argue over the nuances of exactly how to measure it and the merits of each approach for different purposes.

The critical point is that you need to be extremely careful when making comparisons not to mix the methodologies up. It would be like trying to determine who is the tallest pupil in the class by using some measurements in bare feet, some wearing shoes, some taken on carpet, some back to the wall, some with normal.posture etc.

Your original post mixed sources and methods so the comparison was invalid.

Pick a source (world bank, oecd, whatever) and then look at the trends.

The conundrum for you is to explain how the U.K. is fairing better than France and certainly Germany when Brexit is damaging us so much?

[BeElBeeBub]

That's got to be wrong, France hasn't been ahead of us since 2016.

As I said, it depends on the exact methodology. The OECD have one, world bank another, the ONS yet another. All are equally valid, economists argue over the nuances of exactly how to measure it and the merits of each approach for different purposes. 

The critical point is that you need to be extremely careful when making comparisons not to mix the methodologies up. It would be like trying to determine who is the tallest pupil in the class by using some measurements in bare feet, some wearing shoes, some taken on carpet, some back to the wall, some with normal.posture etc. 

Your original post mixed sources and methods so the comparison was invalid. 

Pick a source (world bank, oecd, whatever) and then look at the trends. 

[Nick]

From. OECD trillion USD, 2019, 2020, 2022

France 3.40 3.25 3.77
Germany 4.77 4.70 5.31
Uk 3.29 3.08 3.66

That's got to be wrong, France hasn't been ahead of us since 2016. 

[Nick]

Not playing games.

Different organisations compute GDP differently.

For example {world bank} vs (oecd) vs [ONS] all trillion USD

2019 {2.86} (3.29) [2. 82]
2020 {2.70} (3.08) [2.65t
2021 {3.12}  (3.36) [2.86]
2022 {3.07} (3.66) [3.13]

So I could claim the UK GDP has fallen from (3.29) in 2019 to {3.07} in 2022.

Or it's risen from [2.82] in 2019 to (3.66) in 2022.

That would clearly be cherry picking bollocks though.

Compare like for like. If you use a particular source for the start figure (and don't use 2020 or 2021) then use the same source for the end figure.

If you use one source for one country, don't use another source for another country.

Otherwise you're just bullshitting.

As Borky will tell you, there are the true facts and then there is BS, and as you rightly said which is the correct set. It shouldn't come down to how it's calculated, it is either right or wrong. 

[BeElBeeBub]

From. OECD trillion USD, 2019, 2020, 2022

France 3.40 3.25 3.77
Germany 4.77 4.70 5.31
Uk 3.29 3.08 3.66

[BeElBeeBub]

Never mind playing games, do you contest the figures? If so please show figures for the same years. GDP is GDP, either the figures are right or wrong, errors should not be introduced regardless of source.

Not playing games. 

Different organisations compute GDP differently. 

For example {world bank} vs (oecd) vs [ONS] all trillion USD

2019 {2.86} (3.29) [2. 82]
2020 {2.70} (3.08) [2.65t
2021 {3.12}  (3.36) [2.86] 
2022 {3.07} (3.66) [3.13] 

So I could claim the UK GDP has fallen from (3.29) in 2019 to {3.07} in 2022.

Or it's risen from [2.82] in 2019 to (3.66) in 2022.

That would clearly be cherry picking bollocks though. 

Compare like for like. If you use a particular source for the start figure (and don't use 2020 or 2021) then use the same source for the end figure. 

If you use one source for one country, don't use another source for another country.

Otherwise you're just bullshitting. 

[Nick]

You appear to be using 2 different sources for 2020/21 and 2022, which can introduce errors. Generally better to use a single source for consistency.

For example statistical times seems to use the world bank as it's source (the figures match). But the 2022 figures you posted from (statistical. Com?) don't match the world bank 2022.

WB figures from 2022 are:

🇩🇪 4070bn (2019 3890bn)
🇬🇧 3070bn (2019 2860bn)
🇫🇷 2780bn (2019 2730bn)

Your selection of time line is somewhat odd too. You have chosen 2020 as a baseline for some reason. Pretty much nobody would do that as it was in the pandemic.
For example you say the UK is the only one not to fall back to 2020 levels - but that would be very easily explained if (as we know is the case) the UK fell the most in 2020.

Never mind playing games, do you contest the figures? If so please show figures for the same years. GDP is GDP, either the figures are right or wrong, errors should not be introduced regardless of source. 

[BeElBeeBub]

The stats below show 2 things, the U.K. GDP grew the most 2020 to 2021 and contracted the least 2021 to 2022. In fact, the U.K. is the only one out of the three that hasn't dropped back to 2020 levels. No figures out for 2023 that I've seen yet, but we do know it won't be good reading for Germany.

You appear to be using 2 different sources for 2020/21 and 2022, which can introduce errors. Generally better to use a single source for consistency.

For example statistical times seems to use the world bank as it's source (the figures match). But the 2022 figures you posted from (statistical. Com?) don't match the world bank 2022.

WB figures from 2022 are:

🇩🇪 4070bn (2019 3890bn)
🇬🇧 3070bn (2019 2860bn)
🇫🇷 2780bn (2019 2730bn)

Your selection of time line is somewhat odd too. You have chosen 2020 as a baseline for some reason. Pretty much nobody would do that as it was in the pandemic.
For example you say the UK is the only one not to fall back to 2020 levels - but that would be very easily explained if (as we know is the case) the UK fell the most in 2020.

[Nick]

The stats below show 2 things, the U.K. GDP grew the most 2020 to 2021 and contracted the least 2021 to 2022. In fact, the U.K. is the only one out of the three that hasn't dropped back to 2020 levels. No figures out for 2023 that I've seen yet, but we do know it won't be good reading for Germany.