Brexit deal impact in UK is worsening, warn economists

[Unlucky4Sum]

Our exports are down 7% between 2022 and 20223, Germany down 7.8% over the same period, most likely due to Ukraine - not Brexit. Australia's exports down 25%, I suppose that's Brexit also.

Well we agree the fall from 2022 is not due to Brexit.

But 2022 was a blip year boosted by delayed exports due to Covid.  The long term position shows that our GDP has suffered from the days in 2015 when it was thought there would be no referendum.  We've devalued the £ significantly in order to keep a decent enough level of trading but that has costs that have to be paid.

There are arguments in favour of Brexit, there always were, but the economy is not one of them.  That's on the cons side of the pros and cons chart.

[Nick]

The Brexit damage is to the goods sector (as the link in the OP laid out).

The service sector is doing fairly well, but that is not due to any Brexit bonfires of red tape or anything, it's due to the UK being very good at services exports.

Manufacturing is struggling. Brexit has not made it better it has made it worse. Yet i distinctly rember brexiters being very concerned with the plight of manufacturing in this country before Brexit. It's decline being blamed on our EU membership.

Stats showing how manufacturing was now less of our exports than services etc were bandied about.

Brexit was to set UK manufacturing free from Brussels red tape. To allow it to export around the world.

Now they got waht they wanted brexiters don't seem to give a toss about UK manufacturing (or fishing)

Our exports are down 7% between 2022 and 20223, Germany down 7.8% over the same period, most likely due to Ukraine - not Brexit. Australia's exports down 25%, I suppose that's Brexit also.

[BeElBeeBub]

Below is a chart of UK exports, service is slightly higher than the expected trajectory and goods slightly lower, but the total is almost exactly on the same trajectory as before Brexit, so where is this Brexit damage?

The Brexit damage is to the goods sector (as the link in the OP laid out).

The service sector is doing fairly well, but that is not due to any Brexit bonfires of red tape or anything, it's due to the UK being very good at services exports.

Manufacturing is struggling. Brexit has not made it better it has made it worse. Yet i distinctly rember brexiters being very concerned with the plight of manufacturing in this country before Brexit. It's decline being blamed on our EU membership. 

Stats showing how manufacturing was now less of our exports than services etc were bandied about. 

Brexit was to set UK manufacturing free from Brussels red tape. To allow it to export around the world.

Now they got waht they wanted brexiters don't seem to give a toss about UK manufacturing (or fishing) 

[Nick]

And from that you get

2015:  Euro area GDP $11.7T  UK GDP 2.93T  ie EU area 3.99 times UK

2023:  Euro area GDP $15.5T  UK GDP 3.34T  ie EU area 4.64 times UK

And that's what your beloved referendum and consequences has done to the UK compared to the EU area.  Made us 16% poorer in comparable GDP terms.

Below is a chart of UK exports, service is slightly higher than the expected trajectory and goods slightly lower, but the total is almost exactly on the same trajectory as before Brexit, so where is this Brexit damage?

[Nick]

4.64/3.99 = 1.1622  That's a 16% difference.  To be fair it was wrong for me to say that was all growth we lost as the Euro area contains some high growth lower wage nations.

I see you wish to live in denial that the impact of Brexit on the economy started when the referendum was announced but even then you agree we've performed worse than the Euro area since 2019.

Do you really need me to explain that Covid was a worldwide pandemic so the Euro area had it as well?

Are you suggesting that Covid impacted EVERY country the same?
Since 2019 the UK has outgrown the EU.

[Unlucky4Sum]

Firstly, can you show where you calculated 16% based on those figures?

And as usual, you try and make it fit your rhetoric by using a nicely selected time scale, instead of what you should do is us the date just before Brexit: which is 2019.

2019: Euro GDP  14,019T Euro    UK: $2,857
2022: Euro GDP  15,906T Euro    UK: $3,070

Euro increase of 11.68% UK 6.93%, so the EU has increase 4.75% more, not 16%, and you have NO WAY of showing that that was down to Brexit and not Covid.

4.64/3.99 = 1.1622   That's a 16% difference.  To be fair it was wrong for me to say that was all growth we lost as the Euro area contains some high growth lower wage nations.

I see you wish to live in denial that the impact of Brexit on the economy started when the referendum was announced but even then you agree we've performed worse than the Euro area since 2019.

Do you really need me to explain that Covid was a worldwide pandemic so the Euro area had it as well?

[Unlucky4Sum]

And from that you get

2015:  Euro area GDP $11.7T  UK GDP 2.93T  ie EU area 3.99 times UK

2023:  Euro area GDP $15.5T  UK GDP 3.34T  ie EU area 4.64 times UK

And that's what your beloved referendum and consequences has done to the UK compared to the EU area.  Made us 16% poorer in comparable GDP terms. 

[Unlucky4Sum]

So you really didn't realise it was Trading Economics?  Here you go https://tradingeconomics.com/euro-area/gdp  

Then use the compare box to bring in the UK GDP as a comparison.

[Nick]

Germany is having issues yes.  But taken as a whole the Euro zone hasn't see exports fall since 2022.  And it's seen its GDP grow better than ours since that referendum was called (was 3.99 times ours and last year was 4.64 times)

Another graph with no source that doesn't say what it's compared against, you have clearly chosen a comparison but not stated what it is. Can we have a link to this graph? It's clearly an attempt at smoke and mirrors, the graph continues to rise during Covid, you must think I was born yesterday. 

[Unlucky4Sum]

Germany is having issues yes.  But taken as a whole the Euro zone hasn't see exports fall since 2022.  And it's seen its GDP grow better than ours since that referendum was called (was 3.99 times ours and last year was 4.64 times)

[Nick]

OK my bad.


Here's the full chart with title from https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports

This is Germany's import and export 2022 - 2023, dropped the same as the U.K., is Germany suffering from Brexit also, or is it another issue maybe 🤔. 

[Unlucky4Sum]

What exactly is this graph, it's useless at the moment, is it the number of Fleas that Elephants have? . . 

OK my bad.


Here's the full chart with title from https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports

[Nick]

He's accurately reporting the report.  What's wrong with that.

And as for trade that would be the trade that reduced after that one off 2022 burst Badenoch went on so much about 2 years afterwards.

What exactly is this graph, it's useless at the moment, is it the number of Fleas that Elephants have? It looks very similar to one outlining German GDP by year, so are they suffering from Brexit also?

[Unlucky4Sum]

A problem is that Badenoch idiocy of earlier this year.  She gobbed off about how the Uk has the fastest rising exports of any country and was the fourth biggest exporter in the world and all the pro Brexit papers and commentators repeated it over and over.  Example

But she was badly wrong.

As even the example article said way down 'United Nations Conference on Trade and Development show that Britain was behind only China, the US and Germany in 2022.'

And not only is 2022 not any sensible person's definition of 'now' it was capturing that 2022 blip (see graph above) and our exports have fallen since.  Whereas countries like France have seen their exports go up

We have a Brexit impact problem, the OBR agree with the pre referendum estimates that it's an ~ 5% problem.  It's not a disaster but it isn't great either.  Denying this is at best just silly.

[BeElBeeBub]

Is there any mention in the arch remainer Faisal Islam's report of the increase in trade with the rest of the World?

That is only true for services exports. 

To quote the Hoc library from last month

Little growth in goods exports
The UK's recent trade performance in services has been much better than that for goods. UK goods exports to the EU fell sharply in January 2021 after the end of the Brexit transition period, before recovering strongly in February 2021. Goods exports to the EU remain below their pre-pandemic/Brexit level, however: in 2023, goods exports to the EU were 11% below their 2019 level in real terms. It is important to point out, however, that goods exports to the EU were growly slowly before Brexit and the pandemic. In addition, exports to non-EU countries in 2023 were also 11% below their 2019 level in real terms.

Services have performed better
UK exports of services to both EU and non-EU countries fell in 2020 but have grown strongly since then. In 2023, UK exports of services to the EU were 9% above their 2019 level in real terms. Exports to non-EU countries were 15% above their 2019 level.

It's important to note that the services trade outside the EU was not fettered by our EU membership at all ie the growth wea re seeing now isn't due to any rule changes since Brexit.