COVID-19 R-rate rises to 1 in South West

[Javert]

I'm well aware that statistics can be manipulated or inadvertently inaccurate and that's probably the case for lots of countries including our own.

Statistics can also be correct but misused by either taking them out of context, or switch and bait with the statistic that looks best (or least bad), altering the scale, etc - this is something we have had a masterclass in during the UK government's recent Coronavirus press conferences.  Slides that make the UK look good are displayed, but then as the UK looks worse and worse, those slides disappear and are replaced by another cherry picked data point.

[Barry]

If they were lying about covid-19 statisics why would they have admitted to being one of the worst affected countries in the early stages of the epidemic? And why would they publish the daily figures that showed a rapid rise in cases, which tailed off steadily soon after their lockdown was introduced? More to the point, why would they continue to publish stats that show a steady rise after lockdown was lifted?  



I'm well aware that statistics can be manipulated or inadvertently inaccurate and that's probably the case for lots of countries including our own.

You've got such a short memory.

The Iranian regime covered up news of the coronavirus for three days to avoid impacting turnout at parliamentary elections, documents obtained by an Iranian exile-run news site show.

Like I said, Iran are the biggest liars.

https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/22/Iran-authorities-delayed-coronavirus-measures-to-encourage-election-turnout-Report">//https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/22/Iran-authorities-delayed-coronavirus-measures-to-encourage-election-turnout-Report

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

I wouldn't believe any data from Iran. They said they didn't shoot down the Ukraine airliner. They are the biggest liars.

If they were lying about covid-19 statisics why would they have admitted to being one of the worst affected countries in the early stages of the epidemic? And why would they publish the daily figures that showed a rapid rise in cases, which tailed off steadily soon after their lockdown was introduced? More to the point, why would they continue to publish stats that show a steady rise after lockdown was lifted?  



I'm well aware that statistics can be manipulated or inadvertently inaccurate and that's probably the case for lots of countries including our own.

[johnofgwent]

sad story john , and i see what you mean.

On the up side... dad was 75 and mum 86 when they went. Ralph however hadnt lived long enough to claim his motor industry pension. Moiras inheritance included a refund of his contributions....

[Barry]

I wouldn't believe any data from Iran. They said they didn't shoot down the Ukraine airliner. They are the biggest liars.

[patman post]

For a graph showing what a second wave looks like, look no further than Iran page on Worldometer.  I've linked to this before, but it so important and it's there in plain sight but nobody seems to taking any notice of it.  Iran introduced lockdown and the number of daily cases declined steadily, then it abandoned the lockdown and the daily cases have risen steadily since then. What's more the new peak in daily cases is higher than the previous one.



Reducing opportunities for the virus to spread reduces the number of cases.  

Increasing the opportunities leads to an increase in cases.



See graph of Iran's second wave . .

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

Seems to be a clear indicator — whatever the excuses made to illustrate how the UK is not like Iraq or any other country, the UK's reported Covid death figures currently place it at No2 in the world.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries">https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries



The timing and extent of the measures taken by the government to counter the virus, at the outset and since, are questionable. Pandering to the clamour to ease the lock-down could backfire. While the government cannot be totally responsible for the blatant disregard of the instructions, and simple stupidity, by some of the public, it seems to be putting a lot of trust in luck and spin.



Those who portray Iraq as more susceptible to Covid because of the actions of snake oil merchants should also look at the money made by David Noakes from selling bogus cures and fake coronavirus test kits...

https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/multi-millionaire-fake-cancer-drug-4166591">https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornw ... ug-4166591">https://www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/multi-millionaire-fake-cancer-drug-4166591

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-guernsey-46359949">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe ... y-46359949">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-guernsey-46359949

[Borchester]

Where did you get your daily death data?  the figures provided in the daily briefing are "deaths reported" on the previous day.  The majority of those deaths didn't occur on the day they were reported.

I know. That is why I made the point of saying that the date was crap.



Sometimes folk look you in the eye and say that their information is 100% accurate, which unless they are quoting the six times table, is invariably bollocks. It just means that the data agrees with such prejudices as they are comfortable with.



As a result of the above I have taken the data from ..



https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/">//%20https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/%20%20%20



and made no assumptions whatever

[BeElBeeBub]

Working on the basis that most of the data is iffy and the rest crap, I made a graph of the daily deaths  in the UK. Then I drew a line of best fit from the maximum value to that of the last day. The result was a decline in the daily mortality of about 15 cases. It seemed reasonable at the time, but if I could be arsed to dig out my log tables it now looks as though we are looking at an exponential curve, which is producing a decline of only about 11 cases a day. So, taking the worse case scenario and with 350 odd deaths on Friday, we have about 32 more days before the pubs reopen. Which means early July.



Of course, if the cotton tops keep on turning up their toes at an ever increasing rate it might drag on even longer.  

Where did you get your daily death data?  the figures provided in the daily briefing are "deaths reported" on the previous day.  The majority of those deaths didn't occur on the day they were reported.



PHE produce a good data set here https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/">https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/s ... ly-deaths/">https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/



it shows very clearly the deaths "smeared" across number of days.  For example of the deaths anounced on the 5th June, most occurred on the 4th June, but some occurred as far back as late March!



That data very clearly shows the exponential nature of the decay (which is exactly what you would expect).  it also shows the deaths have levelled off somewhere around the 100 a day mark (we won't know for this week until later next week) which is, again, what you would expect if the various loosening of measures has brought R closer to (or above) 1.  Unless omething changes we will sit here at around 700 deaths a week over the summer until the worsening weather pushes R up a bit more just in time for the flu season to join the party.



If we had this level of R, but deaths in the single digits per day that would be a better place.



If R does go above 1 by much, we will start seeing a rise in infections and then deaths, albeit not as fast as pre lockdown.



Unless we have a track and trace or other systems to keep R down, our only other option is another lockdown, which won't be much fun.

[Thomas]

Only three ?



I shall be providing a very public demonstration that the near-retired have a drinking capacity most late  teens to twentysomethings can only dream of.



At the start of this crap I vowed that if the virus did not kill me the bender I was going on when the oubs reopened probably would and so by god I shall dare it to



I fully expect to need treatment for alcohol poisoning and I also fully expect the musicians I shall be drinking with, particularly the two drummers who are almost as old as Keith Richard's and one of whom drummed on tour for their warm up act decades ago -  will think me a lightweight when I pass out.



Look out for bbc wales headlines of reckless drinking by oaps.....

 ::

[Thomas]

Well, and I say this in deadly earnest,  there is precedent for not taking the pills.



Moiras father was diagnosed with prostate cancer in 1995. He quickly found the drugs were killing him faster than the disease. Admittedly because he was not well as a child and suffered asthma throughout his life. He asked the doctor to end his treatment. He threw himself into all manner of things including writing to presidents and other rulers worldwide on behalf of amnesty. He was active to the last. He rang us on a Tuesday night / wednesday morning. Moira told me not to bother taking the call. In the morning she realised on listening to the answer phone it was her dad saying he was having issues breathing and was being taken to a former TB sanitorium now respiratory specialist centre.



He was dead within a week. Hallow'een 2001.



In stark contrast my father was diagnosed with the same disease in autumn 1997. He took every option that western medicine threw at him. He lived until the 23rd of December 2005, so arguably western medicine had given him two more years than Ralph had.



However, the last four of those saw him severely reduced in strength and mobility and the final 18 months were a pain ravaged hell on earth. He died in a stinking side ward whose floor had not been cleaned once in the fortnight he spent immobile plugged into tubing on it.



There is precedent for giving the most serious consideration to the quality of life western medicine promises to extend ....



I'm taking Ralph's approach myself.

sad story john , and i see what you mean.

[johnofgwent]

first hing am daein borkie is going for a haircut then a pint or three.



Feckin fed up wae aw this myself .

Only three ?



I shall be providing a very public demonstration that the near-retired have a drinking capacity most late  teens to twentysomethings can only dream of.



At the start of this crap I vowed that if the virus did not kill me the bender I was going on when the oubs reopened probably would and so by god I shall dare it to



I fully expect to need treatment for alcohol poisoning and I also fully expect the musicians I shall be drinking with, particularly the two drummers who are almost as old as Keith Richard's and one of whom drummed on tour for their warm up act decades ago -  will think me a lightweight when I pass out.



Look out for bbc wales headlines of reckless drinking by oaps.....

[Thomas]

That is the problem Tommy. A lot of cottontops are like me. We have beards, cut our own hair, drink at home because we are too cheap to pay pub prices and generally don't give a toss for kids like you.  

 ::  :thup:

[Borchester]

first hing am daein borkie is going for a haircut then a pint or three.



Feckin fed up wae aw this myself .

That is the problem Tommy. A lot of cottontops are like me. We have beards, cut our own hair, drink at home because we are too cheap to pay pub prices and generally don't give a toss for kids like you.  

[johnofgwent]

:roll:  ::

















Now now john , dont be upsetting quackers. You know how he likes a good bit of hysteria and doom mongering!



Its nothing to do with the backwardness of their society and poverty , its all to do with abandoning the lockdown. :roll:

Well, and I say this in deadly earnest,  there is precedent for not taking the pills.



Moiras father was diagnosed with prostate cancer in 1995. He quickly found the drugs were killing him faster than the disease. Admittedly because he was not well as a child and suffered asthma throughout his life. He asked the doctor to end his treatment. He threw himself into all manner of things including writing to presidents and other rulers worldwide on behalf of amnesty. He was active to the last. He rang us on a Tuesday night / wednesday morning. Moira told me not to bother taking the call. In the morning she realised on listening to the answer phone it was her dad saying he was having issues breathing and was being taken to a former TB sanitorium now respiratory specialist centre.



He was dead within a week. Hallow'een 2001.



In stark contrast my father was diagnosed with the same disease in autumn 1997. He took every option that western medicine threw at him. He lived until the 23rd of December 2005, so arguably western medicine had given him two more years than Ralph had.



However, the last four of those saw him severely reduced in strength and mobility and the final 18 months were a pain ravaged hell on earth. He died in a stinking side ward whose floor had not been cleaned once in the fortnight he spent immobile plugged into tubing on it.



There is precedent for giving the most serious consideration to the quality of life western medicine promises to extend ....



I'm taking Ralph's approach myself.

[Thomas]

 So, taking the worse case scenario and with 350 odd deaths on Friday, we have about 32 more days before the pubs reopen. Which means early July.

first hing am daein borkie is going for a haircut then a pint or three.



Feckin fed up wae aw this myself .