The Prediction Thread

[Nick]

Really? What cherry picked poll  are you looking at?

Perhaps you can have a look whilst on your sabbatical.

BTW it's now 7 points.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/09/24/voting-intention-con-39-lab-32-22-23-sep

[papasmurf]

Tories still showing a 4 point lead,

Really? What cherry picked poll  are you looking at?

[Nick]

Well you could be right. The Tories are only likely to start panicking and plotting if they start doing really badly in the polls. But Spaffwaffle's position is being made more secure by the abject failure of Labour under Sir Wet Lettuce to offer any better alternatives. As long as Labour remains no threat, Spaffwaffle is probably safe.

Tories still showing a 4 point lead, and pulling the Submarine rug from under Frances feet is sure to give them a bit of a boost. But I agree, Starmer and Labour are a non-entity, all they seem to have is let's just say the opposite of what the Tories say, they have no vision or policy.

[srb7677]

A while ago I might have agreed with you about Johnson being ousted if another poster-boy leader could be agreed on.   

But Sunak is losing a bit of lustre, and Boris is gathering plus points again — and he's still the one Tory politician everybody immediately knows. At the moment, the Tory leadership is his to lose...

Well you could be right. The Tories are only likely to start panicking and plotting if they start doing really badly in the polls. But Spaffwaffle's position is being made more secure by the abject failure of Labour under Sir Wet Lettuce to offer any better alternatives. As long as Labour remains no threat, Spaffwaffle is probably safe.

[papasmurf]

Dunno. But if Pappy thinks it will happen I am not going to argue.

I look at the history of the six Cornish constituencies none of them are safe Tory seats.

[patman post]

The Tories will replace Boris as leader with someone else - probably Sunak - before the next election.

And in that election Starmer will lead Labour to a historic defeat.

A while ago I might have agreed with you about Johnson being ousted if another poster-boy leader could be agreed on.   

But Sunak is losing a bit of lustre, and Boris is gathering plus points again — and he's still the one Tory politician everybody immediately knows. At the moment, the Tory leadership is his to lose...

[Borchester]

Copied this from another thread one of smurfys predictions,we'll see.

papasmurf


I expect given the way the Cornish Tory MPs have gone into hiding because of the ever increasing problems in Cornwall most of which are because of Tory policies, it will revert to being five Lib-Dems and one Labour after the next general election.

Dunno. But if Pappy thinks it will happen I am not going to argue.

[cromwell]

Copied this from another thread one of smurfys predictions,we'll see.

papasmurf


I expect given the way the Cornish Tory MPs have gone into hiding because of the ever increasing problems in Cornwall most of which are because of Tory policies, it will revert to being five Lib-Dems and one Labour after the next general election.

[srb7677]

The Tories will replace Boris as leader with someone else - probably Sunak - before the next election.

And in that election Starmer will lead Labour to a historic defeat.

[Borchester]

Who is this "we?"

Good point.

So my prediction is that things will get better and better for everyone, except Pappy, who when the good times roll complains about the noise.

[papasmurf]

My prediction is that

(a) we will live longer, healthier lives, cushioned by increasing prosperity

Who is this "we?"

[Borchester]

So over the years people have made various predictions and have been slated at times for them.

So here you can put forward your mystic meg skills and come back in a while and say told you so......or have people ridicule your efforts (who'd do that I wonder  )

Anyway at the beginning of the afghan debacle I said that this would be used as proof positive we shouldn't have left the eu and how we need to be back in and forming a defence force.

On the first point Bliar has been at it already and now the eu army is being mooted again.

Me I think nato with or without the US is enough though more likely without much from them as it stands.

Anyway I'm prepared to be ridiculed if it all comes to nowt.

Any other takers?

My prediction is that

(a) we will live longer, healthier lives, cushioned by increasing prosperity

(b) a significant wedge of the population will bitch regardless.

[papasmurf]

That *IS* the connection,

One man's opinion is not the EU getting a combined army and invading Afghanistan. It is not even a tenuous link.

[johnofgwent]

All I see in that link is a opinion. Not a direct connection. I really cannot see that the EU is ever going to send combined EU armed forces into Afghanistan. (If a such a combined force ever happens.)

To his is rapidly approaching the "god, give me strength / then die in ignorance" point


The whole POINT was that this Europhile jerk jumping up and down was indeed expressing his opinion, and an opinion hotly opposed by NATO.


That *IS* the connection, that this prize (rhymes with financier and thing that stops a ship drifting) FEELS that if the EU HAD one, they could have threatened to send it, or actually sent it.


Now, as a third season Star Trek episode puts it


https://youtu.be/rbb4IJWrm-8


I can waste no more time on you

[papasmurf]

Couldn't have put it better John,I think most see the connection.

All I see in that link is a opinion. Not a direct connection. I really cannot see that the EU is ever going to send combined EU armed forces into Afghanistan. (If a such a combined force ever happens.)