How is everyone doing ?

[Nick]

Russia aren't going to go back Streetwalker. Ukraine have two choices, they can continue to fight until the last Ukrainian or they can talk. They longer it takes to talk the weaker their position is because to regain ground means you are taking the fight on and defacto on the back foot. The whole point of talking is to find common ground anyway and not have things on "your terms". Russia will demand certain things because NOBODY goes to the negotiation table saying they are going to concede. The truth is Erdoğan is setting the foundations for talks to resume and if Zelensky is asking for troops to withdraw first it will be Ukraibe not Russia who will need convincing to come back to the table.

But to answer your question previously on what is needed to get Russia back to the negotiation table, the first is to ask for a realistic framework to negotiate. Personally I would ask for talks to be split into criteria that are mutually beneficial, the first being a ceasefire which will remain in back until a solution for the Donbass is reached and then move onto negotiating Ukraine/Russian security, withdrawal of troop and finally Crimea. If we can at least agree a ceasefire and start talks we will be making progress don't you think?

Wait til the cold hard winter sets in and you'll see a difference. 
Ukraine is fighting for their existence and every soldier has passion, not a single Russian soldier wants to be there, less so when his toes and fingers are dropping off. 

[B0ycey]

The biggest problem is the bad faith that has come from the West at every turn. If there had been any good faith, the war would not have started as the situation would have been diffused as soon as an issue started. I agree very much about Ukraine should having been divided. I agree wholeheartedly that the Minsk agreement should have been implemented as Russia wanted it to be.

I do have confidence in Russian good faith in this. If not why did they wait eight years? why did not launch this operation in 2014 instead of letting the West install the far right Kiev regime and implement a very oppressive police state against the pro Russian areas in the East not under rebel control? Eight years ago the Russians would literally have rolled through the country as they demonstrated very clearly when they clashed in the Donbass then.

Today it is a proxy war with NATO and Washington is the prime mover of it. They really are prepared to fight until the last Ukrainian and so Russia has adopted a battle plan that recognises that and makes sure the casualties are massively disproportionate on the Ukrainian side. It means Russia does not trust the West, which means even if they did a deal with Zelensky, Zelensky would quickly be got rid off and a new more plaint ultra-nationalist Ukrainian leader installed.

The Russians are actually on the offensive, but it is slow slow work in terms of territory and measured more in the horrific losses that the Ukrainians are suffering. Sooner or later though the prepared fortifications on the contact line will be all taken and then progress will pick up. Yes the Ukrainians do dig in again further back, But hand dug ditches and holes containing reservists  and territorials are not much of an exchange for the Professional Contract Soldiers and the long prepared Concrete and Steel Fortifications they are losing.

I think the Russian main plan now is to inflict hurt on the Ukrainians to such a degree that they themselves take the lead in the Regime Change with a counter Maidan revolution, to oust the thugs that Washington installed. I think Russia is happy to chug along until that, or an offer of full unconditional surrender comes along.

I don't know Sampanviking. Perhaps Russia want to go all the way to Keiv inch by inch, but my instinct is they won't. If Afghanistan taught us anything, taking and controlling hostel lands is franking impossible and ultimately costly whether that is in terms of lives or financially. Their success in the Donbass is simply down to the fact that there was a huge degree of support there for their presence and Keiv supporting residents ran out the country. What you are implying is Russia going into hostile territory and not over stretching inch by inch and that isn't years but decades to achieve if it is even possible which I doubt. But in any case, just watching the lines, hearing the words and spotting the action, Russia have moved their army to the south to defend a Ukrainian offensive in Kherson. They are not actually on offensive themselves. They are letting Ukraine take the war to them and in the winter they will have no choice but to fortify up and strengthen their position anyway so in that sense I expect that is indeed what is happen now which is they are beginning to built up their defence and supply lines for next year. Given that, it would be a perfect time to enact a ceasefire anyway regardless of trust if talks can take place because the Winter is going to make offensives impractical anyway and you'd be fortify up your position whether you had a ceasefire or not... and whi know, talks could lead somewhere.

[Sampanviking]

I would say that a ceasefire is possible actually given Russia don't seem to be on the offensive right now. It seems they are happy to hold their ground until after the winter now. But that doesn't mean they will just agree to a ceasefire whatever. I just think a ceasefire needs to be part of the negotiation process given there are at least five key issues that will take years to sort out and talk through and fighting shouldn'toccur when that happens. Those keybissues being security for both Russia and Ukraine, grain exports, a diplomatic solution for the people of the Donbass whether that is Keiv or Moscow supporting, the withdrawal of Russian troop and of course Crimea. That is why we should be pushing for a split peace process anyway.

And sure, Putin will know he cannot trust the Ukrainians building up their weapons the same way Zelensky will know Putin will fortify and strengthen his position in the Donbass. A ceasefire hinders Russia in one sense but it strengthens them in another. And given the purpose of the "special operation" is protecting the Russian speakers in Donbass, it isn't actually required now to push into Keiv anyway. They can fortify up and let the Ukrainians take the fight to them.

The biggest problem is the bad faith that has come from the West at every turn. If there had been any good faith, the war would not have started as the situation would have been diffused as soon as an issue started. I agree very much about Ukraine should having been divided. I agree wholeheartedly that the Minsk agreement should have been implemented as Russia wanted it to be.

I do have confidence in Russian good faith in this. If not why did they wait eight years? why did not launch this operation in 2014 instead of letting the West install the far right Kiev regime and implement a very oppressive police state against the pro Russian areas in the East not under rebel control? Eight years ago the Russians would literally have rolled through the country as they demonstrated very clearly when they clashed in the Donbass then.

Today it is a proxy war with NATO and Washington is the prime mover of it. They really are prepared to fight until the last Ukrainian and so Russia has adopted a battle plan that recognises that and makes sure the casualties are massively disproportionate on the Ukrainian side. It means Russia does not trust the West, which means even if they did a deal with Zelensky, Zelensky would quickly be got rid off and a new more plaint ultra-nationalist Ukrainian leader installed.

The Russians are actually on the offensive, but it is slow slow work in terms of territory and measured more in the horrific losses that the Ukrainians are suffering. Sooner or later though the prepared fortifications on the contact line will be all taken and then progress will pick up. Yes the Ukrainians do dig in again further back, But hand dug ditches and holes containing reservists  and territorials are not much of an exchange for the Professional Contract Soldiers and the long prepared Concrete and Steel Fortifications they are losing.

I think the Russian main plan now is to inflict hurt on the Ukrainians to such a degree that they themselves take the lead in the Regime Change with a counter Maidan revolution, to oust the thugs that Washington installed. I think Russia is happy to chug along until that, or an offer of full unconditional surrender comes along.

[Good old]

The Russian invasion of the Ukraine is like having a burglar break into your house. The only key issue is that he should not be there.

I would add ,break in and take over the kitchen. Murder two of your kids, and skin the cat.
Who exactly should police this break in , is hard to imagine as the closest to a world police force the UN is toothless on this one , only military action would give it teeth. Not likely just yet  but just one of the many possibilities for the west to chew on, for the moment Putin, has pulled the west into a huge strategic mistake regarding his hold of the energy situation for Europe. A massive mistake if ever there was one. We don't want  WW3,. We don't want capitulation. We need to adapt whatever the cost , because Putin must never be trusted again and if he is left thinking this strategy has worked totally in his favour , the chances are we will have to fight him or capitulate to his future pressures. 

[B0ycey]

The Russian invasion of the Ukraine is like having a burglar break into your house. The only key issue is that he should not be there.

I hope you said the same thing during, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria etc Borky. Ukraine has been in a state of civil war for over a decade and to be frank should have been divided into two back in 2005. In many ways it is no different to the Yugoslav wars where the country was split because the people there weren't one ethnicity. Are you aware that Kosovo isn't recognised by the UN I wonder and is just as much Serbian as the Donbass is Ukrainian? I wonder what you said when NATO bombed Belgrade?

But to answer your question more directly, no I don't think the Russians should be in the Donbass. They should have first exhausted all diplomatic avenues in making the Ukrainians implement the Minsk agreement. They should have first brought up motions in the UN and started the process of making the Donbass autonomous like Kosovo is today. And now I think it is up to the world to push for dialogue and see if we can find agreement so the Russians pull back. If a burglar is in your house you don't just tackle him and push him out the house. You first phone the police and let them negotiate his arrest.

[Borchester]

I would say that a ceasefire is possible actually given Russia don't seem to be on the offensive right now. It seems they are happy to hold their ground until after the winter now. But that doesn't mean they will just agree to a ceasefire whatever. I just think a ceasefire needs to be part of the negotiation process given there are at least five key issues that will take years to sort out and talk through and fighting shouldn'toccur when that happens. Those keybissues being security for both Russia and Ukraine, grain exports, a diplomatic solution for the people of the Donbass whether that is Keiv or Moscow supporting, the withdrawal of Russian troop and of course Crimea. That is why we should be pushing for a split peace process anyway.

And sure, Putin will know he cannot trust the Ukrainians building up their weapons the same way Zelensky will know Putin will fortify and strengthen his position in the Donbass. A ceasefire hinders Russia in one sense but it strengthens them in another. And given the purpose of the "special operation" is protecting the Russian speakers in Donbass, it isn't actually required now to push into Keiv anyway. They can fortify up and let the Ukrainians take the fight to them.

The Russian invasion of the Ukraine is like having a burglar break into your house. The only key issue is that he should not be there.

[B0ycey]

I think negotiation is going to near impossible now.

If Russia accepts a cease fire, it know from experience that all this means is that the Kiev Regime and its US backers will simply rebuild the Ukrainian army and that in a few years they will be facing another war. Putin has seen too many deals negotiated with Kiev and the US be cynically dishonored, to trust them anymore.

I would say that a ceasefire is possible actually given Russia don't seem to be on the offensive right now. It seems they are happy to hold their ground until after the winter now. But that doesn't mean they will just agree to a ceasefire whatever. I just think a ceasefire needs to be part of the negotiation process given there are at least five key issues that will take years to sort out and talk through and fighting shouldn'toccur when that happens. Those keybissues being security for both Russia and Ukraine, grain exports, a diplomatic solution for the people of the Donbass whether that is Keiv or Moscow supporting, the withdrawal of Russian troop and of course Crimea. That is why we should be pushing for a split peace process anyway.

And sure, Putin will know he cannot trust the Ukrainians building up their weapons the same way Zelensky will know Putin will fortify and strengthen his position in the Donbass. A ceasefire hinders Russia in one sense but it strengthens them in another. And given the purpose of the "special operation" is protecting the Russian speakers in Donbass, it isn't actually required now to push into Keiv anyway. They can fortify up and let the Ukrainians take the fight to them.

[srb7677]

This from a cheerleader of the serial liar, mass murdered and war criminal Tony Blair.

If you mistake me for any kind of supporter of Blair you clearly don't know me at all.

That is clearly a laughable assertion and you must be mistaking me for someone else.

I opposed the invasion of Iraq from the very start and knew Blair was blatantly lying to us

I don't seek to justify his lies as you do Putin's

[B0ycey]

Amazing that Sunak, the person who financed one of the biggest public borrow and spends in history now says it was a mistake to take notice of the SAGE scientists.
Well, the rich but rather dumb politicians surrendered to the scientists, who couldn't forecast whether it would rain tomorrow.

Sunak's economy plan seems to be based on even more borrowing. How is that a good idea.

Today's announcement about energy prices at around £10 a day will be a shock to those on very low incomes. It will adversely affect everyone but the rich. (As a couple our total income is around £28k per annum, thank goodness we no longer have a mortgage or have to pay £1400 a month in rent!)

I think we can both agree that the politicians surrendered to the faux scientists Barry given what we have both posted on here before and that is all Sunak is saying. And sure, Sunak financed it. But that is different to supporting it. I don't even think Johnson supported lockdowns and mass borrowing. He however was the guy behind the wheel, not Sunak. If Johnson had a backbone he would have stood his ground and not got his belly tickled by dodgy models. The rest is history. We now need to realise our mistakes and move on.

[Sampanviking]

Total surrender is not negotiation and not talks.

And Russia has no more right to impose regime change on a sovereign nation than the west had. In fact even less, since it is trying to remove an elected government.

All the aggression here has come from the Russians. The unilateral annexation of Crimea.  The support for violent uprisings by Russian minorities in the Donbass. And now a full scale invasion attempting to impose a puppet regime. Annexations, innvasions, the use of minorities within sovereign nations to undermine their integrity and  the exploitation of them as supposed justification for aggression. We have seen all this before in the 1930s.

As for you yourself, you were dutifully feeding us the Russian line - and obvious lie - that Putin had no intention of invading Ukraine because he repeatedly said so, even though the massing of troops was obvious to everyone. You kept insisting there was no such intention right up until he did it, when you suddenly switched to justification mode. No admissiion from you whatsoever that you had ever been wrong or been supporting someone's lies. This makes you little more than a pro-Putin propagandist in the eyes of most of us, which is why few of us bother responding to you all that often anymore and rarely read your pro-Russian drivel. As a propagandist this makes you a failure since you have lost most of your audience, limited to this small forum as it was to start with.

This from a cheerleader of the serial liar, mass murdered and war criminal Tony Blair. Just about sums up what the West has become.

War was never inevitable. The Ukrainians mobilised over 100,000 of their best forces along the Donbass contact line in April 2021 and then again in November. The Russians prepositioned their forces in the West of Russia on both occasions. In April 2021, after talks, the Ukrainians stood down, In November and December they did not and showed every intention of launching an all out assault on the breakaway regions of the Donbass. So Russia intervened.
I no you don't like the truth Steve, but that is the way it was and what they did is what they warned they would do and had warned for many years and they did what any other power, especially the West would have done under similar circumstances in respect to their core interests. Yes, Steve not only Western countries have legitimate and core interests. You may need to sit down and digest that one.

What possible reason does Russia have to negotiate at this point? The Ukraine is on the ropes and time is on Russia's side.
I know you believe the utter tripe that you read in the press, but if only a fraction of that was true, Zelensky would be half way to Moscow by now.
The fact is that the second largest and strongest military in Europe (which is what the Ukraine had in February 2022) has been trashed, its heavy equipment largely destroyed, most of its remaining Air Force unable to operate near any active front, and now the ground forces are enduring losses estimated to be between 20 - 30 to 1 in the endless artillery barrage unleashed against them.
Any Territory Russia takes now is gone forever as the Ukraine has no capability to take it back.

So what exactly does Zelensky have to even negotiate with?

[srb7677]

I see a lot more fighting yet before any prospect of talks, which can be to agree the terms of a Ukrainian total surrender, as no other discussion will now be of interest to Moscow.

Total surrender is not negotiation and not talks.

And Russia has no more right to impose regime change on a sovereign nation than the west had. In fact even less, since it is trying to remove an elected government.

All the aggression here has come from the Russians. The unilateral annexation of Crimea.  The support for violent uprisings by Russian minorities in the Donbass. And now a full scale invasion attempting to impose a puppet regime. Annexations, innvasions, the use of minorities within sovereign nations to undermine their integrity and  the exploitation of them as supposed justification for aggression. We have seen all this before in the 1930s.

As for you yourself, you were dutifully feeding us the Russian line - and obvious lie - that Putin had no intention of invading Ukraine because he repeatedly said so, even though the massing of troops was obvious to everyone. You kept insisting there was no such intention right up until he did it, when you suddenly switched to justification mode. No admissiion from you whatsoever that you had ever been wrong or been supporting someone's lies. This makes you little more than a pro-Putin propagandist in the eyes of most of us, which is why few of us bother responding to you all that often anymore and rarely read your pro-Russian drivel. As a propagandist this makes you a failure since you have lost most of your audience, limited to this small forum as it was to start with.

[Sampanviking]

Russia aren't going to go back Streetwalker. Ukraine have two choices, they can continue to fight until the last Ukrainian or they can talk. They longer it takes to talk the weaker their position is because to regain ground means you are taking the fight on and defacto on the back foot. The whole point of talking is to find common ground anyway and not have things on "your terms". Russia will demand certain things because NOBODY goes to the negotiation table saying they are going to concede. The truth is Erdoğan is setting the foundations for talks to resume and if Zelensky is asking for troops to withdraw first it will be Ukraibe not Russia who will need convincing to come back to the table.

But to answer your question previously on what is needed to get Russia back to the negotiation table, the first is to ask for a realistic framework to negotiate. Personally I would ask for talks to be split into criteria that are mutually beneficial, the first being a ceasefire which will remain in back until a solution for the Donbass is reached and then move onto negotiating Ukraine/Russian security, withdrawal of troop and finally Crimea. If we can at least agree a ceasefire and start talks we will be making progress don't you think?

I think negotiation is going to near impossible now.

If Russia accepts a cease fire, it know from experience that all this means is that the Kiev Regime and its US backers will simply rebuild the Ukrainian army and that in a few years they will be facing another war. Putin has seen too many deals negotiated with Kiev and the US be cynically dishonored, to trust them anymore.
I cannot see anything short of real and total regime change in Kiev as being the minimum acceptable result.

For Zelensky, if he agrees a cease fire along the current front lines, he is finished; lamp post style, and the ultra nationalists will take open control and work the US agenda ever harder....

I see a lot more fighting yet before any prospect of talks, which can be to agree the terms of a Ukrainian total surrender, as no other discussion will now be of interest to Moscow.

[Barry]

World inflation is due to coming out of the failed covid lockdown idea.

Amazing that Sunak, the person who financed one of the biggest public borrow and spends in history now says it was a mistake to take notice of the SAGE scientists.
Well, the rich but rather dumb politicians surrendered to the scientists, who couldn't forecast whether it would rain tomorrow.

Sunak's economy plan seems to be based on even more borrowing. How is that a good idea.

Today's announcement about energy prices at around £10 a day will be a shock to those on very low incomes. It will adversely affect everyone but the rich. (As a couple our total income is around £28k per annum, thank goodness we no longer have a mortgage or have to pay £1400 a month in rent!)

[srb7677]

Ukraine war: How has Russia's invasion changed Europe? | Euronews

As the war in Ukraine goes past its 6 month anniversary it seems most are paying through inflation and soaring prices

Will this lead to less support for Ukraine as countries turn their attention to fixing their own economies is anyones guess but outgoing PM Johnson has told us to basically stop moaning ,its only a few quid . Ukraine are paying in blood .

It is bound to diminish support for the Ukrainians in their struggle if the economic consequences for us include mass destitution and impoverishment. If the government wants to continue to support the Ukainians with the backing of the British people, then it needs to protect the people from some of it's negative consequences. Economic weapons are being used against us, and if we are left defenceless against them the mood to resist will disappear. Protecting the struggling masses here from the economic fallout is integrally essential to continued support for the Ukrainians in their struggle.

[B0ycey]

It has had an effect for sure but make no mistake we are all in an economic war with Russia . Sanctions that were meant to hurt Russians ability to finance its war will become two way sanctions that hurt the west as much as it does them . Everyone is skint , governments and people alike we are all on borrowed time , 

winter is coming

I don't think Sanctions are going to hit Russia that hard In the long term Streetwalker. In fact it seems to have galvanised them to move their economy East. They have a very strong hand in the sense they have things that people want such as energy and food. What the West offers the world is services and finance which to be frank are needed until the new infrastructures are in place to replace it which Russia are working on. That is why the Ruble rebounded as quickly as it fell. Currency is basically worthless and its worth is determined by what you can get in return from it. Once Russia demanded payment in rubles for gas and grain, that was the end of the West's economic plan to weaken their economy. And now Russia have new customers such as China and India to buy their "cheap" gas. And once the pipelines are built and gas can be relocated to those markets, Russia stops selling gas to the EU and that is another jump in the cost of gas to them and us.

If it isn't obvious to the world that we live in a multi hegemonic world by now and soon the world will be based on two economic systems as we had during the Cold War then people aren't watching. Sanctions aren't doing shit but forcing the non Western world to find solutions to unshackle themselves from the Western banking system and once alternatives are in place it won't be long before they see that the West only offer franchises and services and that the real economy of things that people need and want to live are found in the third world.