This is why we shouldn't rush things...

[BeElBeeBub]

The Irish Protocol is part of the poltical declaration.

It used to be part of the WA but Johnson changed that.



You can read it here.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/revised_withdrawal_agreement_including_protocol_on_ireland_and_nothern_ireland.pdf">https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/b ... reland.pdf">https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/revised_withdrawal_agreement_including_protocol_on_ireland_and_nothern_ireland.pdf



There are no legal obligations on the UK to do any thing more than discuss these issues further with the EU at this time.

That alone is what has been signed up to in the Withdrawal Agrement.



The current plan is for the UK to remain intact with the border still between S an N Ireland.

The EU has asked the UK to do behind the lines checkpoints. The UK envisages having checkpoints for UK goods travelling to S ireland in place on the N ireland ports by the end of the year and S Ireland envisages doing the same for UK exports somewhere as yet unspecified in S Ireland.



Free movement between N and S ireland is to remain.

Agricultural standards in NI are expected to remain standardised with the EU to make cross border trade viable.



Barnier is complaining that the UK does not look able to do this by the end of the year.

We will be. A portacabin is all we need to install,





The wildcard and indeed interesting part about this is that NI has self autionomy in this.

They can refuse it and they can refuse any deals the EU and UK make over it. And they may do so every 4-8 years.

This will be a constant issue from now on. One that the NI assembly will fight over forever.

Not sure where you got the idea the Irish protocol is part of the political declaration.



It is not.



The WA and IP are part of an international treaty.



The PD explicitly says *unless* goods are deemed "not at risk"of entering the EU (south) they will be subject to external EU checks but carried out by UK officials.  



This means there will need to be checks on all goods even if just to confirm they are exempt and don't need further checks.



The government has admitted there will be checks between GB and NI.  



If you are still under the impression there is some get out clause or wiggle room in this, you are sorely mistaken.



It does explain why many brexiters were keen to sign up to Johnson's "oven ready deal".



They didn't understand what it entails (to be fair, this was partly down to a deliberate government policy of misleading people eg Johnson's "throw the forms in the bin"  speech/drunken ramble)



Breaking an international agreement is not a good start to the UK's attempts to forge new ones.

[Baff]

The Irish Protocol is part of the poltical declaration.

It used to be part of the WA but Johnson changed that.



You can read it here.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/revised_withdrawal_agreement_including_protocol_on_ireland_and_nothern_ireland.pdf">https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/b ... reland.pdf">https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/revised_withdrawal_agreement_including_protocol_on_ireland_and_nothern_ireland.pdf



There are no legal obligations on the UK to do any thing more than discuss these issues further with the EU at this time.

That alone is what has been signed up to in the Withdrawal Agrement.



The current plan is for the UK to remain intact with the border still between S an N Ireland.

The EU has asked the UK to do behind the lines checkpoints. The UK envisages having checkpoints for UK goods travelling to S ireland in place on the N ireland ports by the end of the year and S Ireland envisages doing the same for UK exports somewhere as yet unspecified in S Ireland.



Free movement between N and S ireland is to remain.

Agricultural standards in NI are expected to remain standardised with the EU to make cross border trade viable.



Barnier is complaining that the UK does not look able to do this by the end of the year.

We will be. A portacabin is all we need to install,





The wildcard and indeed interesting part about this is that NI has self autionomy in this.

They can refuse it and they can refuse any deals the EU and UK make over it. And they may do so every 4-8 years.

This will be a constant issue from now on. One that the NI assembly will fight over forever.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

But Johnson fooled the credulous into thinking his brilliant negotiation style had caused the EU to cave, when in fact he was the one caving in.

Plus the fact that there was never a 'brilliant negotiating style' in the first place.

[BeElBeeBub]

What was unpalatable about May's deal was the whole of the UK remained in the CU until alternative arrangements were found to solve the NI border issue and maintaining the GFA.....

As a point of fact, May's deal allowed GB to leave the arrangement at anytime, leaving NI behind.



As you say, Johnson's deal effectively removed this halfway house and went straight to the end point.



Ironically, May's deal would have removed much of the pressure on an extension because the UK could keep low friction borders even after the end of transition.



This was the great concession May won from the EU.



Without it, we were just back to the EU's initial offer



But Johnson fooled the credulous into thinking his brilliant negotiation style had caused the EU to cave, when in fact he was the one caving in.

[GerryT]

The main issue here is that yet again, he has been caught out - he told people on camera that if this happened, they should call him and simply put the forms in the bin.



Actually, I even saw some of the pro Brexit groups on Twitter this morning were not happy about this - they were talking about being betrayed rather than trying to claim that this was always the case and so on.

What was unpalatable about May's deal was the whole of the UK remained in the CU until alternative arrangements were found to solve the NI border issue and maintaining the GFA. But May was keeping the UK together, a single country. In fairness she understood the issues with NI and appreciated if the UK wanted a deal with the EU this was the price.

Johnson on the other hand, moved TMay's backstop into a front-stop AND he agreed to throw NI under a bus, only weeks later he tells A.Foster and NI business that there would be no border in the Irish sea, that's like north and south poles of a magnet, just can't be done. It was obvious he was again Lying, the convicted Liar.

He probably has been waiting for the time when it was best to drop the good news, Maybe he's going to do some big lift on the lockdown and try bury this release.

[Javert]

This has been a well known requirement, the funny thing is the UK will have to accept EU law for the NI region post brexit. That's what Johnson has done to Brexit. For example if a English supplier run's into trouble with a NI company, if the supplier accepts the company T&C's (that's very usual) then EU laws have oversight (level playing field/ECJ etc..)



He's a genius.

The main issue here is that yet again, he has been caught out - he told people on camera that if this happened, they should call him and simply put the forms in the bin.



Actually, I even saw some of the pro Brexit groups on Twitter this morning were not happy about this - they were talking about being betrayed rather than trying to claim that this was always the case and so on.

[GerryT]

For those saying that Irish sea checks werent needed, wouldn't happen or there was a clever get out clause,



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits">https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ent-admits">https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits



Now granted that's the Guardian, but unless the entire story, including direct attributed quotes from a select committee, is fabricated it is yet an other example of Johnson and his government outright lying to people.



The WA Johnson "negotiated" was achieved by simply dropping one of the "red lines" (namely no irish sea border).

This has been a well known requirement, the funny thing is the UK will have to accept EU law for the NI region post brexit. That's what Johnson has done to Brexit. For example if a English supplier run's into trouble with a NI company, if the supplier accepts the company T&C's (that's very usual) then EU laws have oversight (level playing field/ECJ etc..)



He's a genius.

[BeElBeeBub]

For those saying that Irish sea checks werent needed, wouldn't happen or there was a clever get out clause,



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits">https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ent-admits">https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/may/13/brexit-will-mean-checks-on-goods-crossing-irish-sea-government-admits



Now granted that's the Guardian, but unless the entire story, including direct attributed quotes from a select committee, is fabricated it is yet an other example of Johnson and his government outright lying to people.



The WA Johnson "negotiated" was achieved by simply dropping one of the "red lines" (namely no irish sea border).

[Nick]

You had better tell Michael Gove because he thinks the UK needs 50,000 customs officials, for your new borders. There goes a couple of billion a year.

https://www.ft.com/content/6cf7bba6-598f-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20">https://www.ft.com/content/6cf7bba6-598 ... 03987b7b20">https://www.ft.com/content/6cf7bba6-598f-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20





You might be 100% self sufficient in Lamb but you import 30% of your sheep production or 100,000 tonnes, very strange seen as your self sufficient.

https://britishmeatindustry.org/industry/imports-exports/sheepmeat/">https://britishmeatindustry.org/industr ... sheepmeat/">https://britishmeatindustry.org/industry/imports-exports/sheepmeat/

The UK meat processing industry imports 25% of it's meat, why hasn't this being delivered locally. Your very simplified version of how local producers can ramp up production is just that, simple thinking.

https://britishmeatindustry.org/industry/imports-exports/">https://britishmeatindustry.org/industr ... s-exports/">https://britishmeatindustry.org/industry/imports-exports/

I could go on but what's the point. Very simple, if your local producers can make more why in the past 50yr's haven't they and you think they can. The UK has never been self sufficient in food production, ever. This is a brexit problem, can you demonstrate how the UK can increase production otherwise it's the problem that experts think it is. Good that the UK govt now thinks it's a good thing to listen to experts.





Maybe read the full article, leads with a lovely click bait headline and they the full facts start coming out. Finishing with Given the size of the European market, the size of the movement that way would be much greater, so overall it would be a hit to UK automotive.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/03/nissan-eu-uk-hard-brexit">https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ard-brexit">https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/03/nissan-eu-uk-hard-brexit



? The UK is still in the EU shelter, it still benefit as if it were a full member while it's exchange rate falls. Back in 2015 before all this mess it was 1.4e to the pound, it's now 1.15e to the pound, following a hard brexit further south. Your understanding of a weak pound is very flawed. Economics 101, a weak currency gives short term gains in exports but the hit on imports and inflation will quickly eradicate any gain with increased costs pushing up selling prices. The double knock on is rising costs for UK people.

https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-does-a-lower-pound-boost-manufacturing-77052">https://theconversation.com/hard-eviden ... ring-77052">https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-does-a-lower-pound-boost-manufacturing-77052

Wrong again Nick, not every min and brexit does affect my country, my business. I'm trying to understand the reason for such self harm, some here just want out and appreciate there's a price to be paid, but their happy with that. You on the other hand seem to thing there's the sunny uplands at the end of the rainbow.

Really can't be bothered going round in circles.

[GerryT]

The UK will be in control of its borders so there will be no delays or unnecessary paperwork, especially as we have MRA's with some big countries.

You had better tell Michael Gove because he thinks the UK needs 50,000 customs officials, for your new borders. There goes a couple of billion a year.

https://www.ft.com/content/6cf7bba6-598f-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20">https://www.ft.com/content/6cf7bba6-598 ... 03987b7b20">https://www.ft.com/content/6cf7bba6-598f-11ea-abe5-8e03987b7b20

The UK is 100% self sufficient in lamb and 76% efficient in beef, it won't take long to ramp that up to 100%. Most major supermarkets sell only 100% UK beef already. The UK is almost self sufficient in now and seeing that most POL are chopped at 26 weeks it can be up to 100% in mo time at all.

You might be 100% self sufficient in Lamb but you import 30% of your sheep production or 100,000 tonnes, very strange seen as your self sufficient.

https://britishmeatindustry.org/industry/imports-exports/sheepmeat/">https://britishmeatindustry.org/industr ... sheepmeat/">https://britishmeatindustry.org/industry/imports-exports/sheepmeat/

The UK meat processing industry imports 25% of it's meat, why hasn't this being delivered locally. Your very simplified version of how local producers can ramp up production is just that, simple thinking.

https://britishmeatindustry.org/industry/imports-exports/">https://britishmeatindustry.org/industr ... s-exports/">https://britishmeatindustry.org/industry/imports-exports/

I could go on but what's the point. Very simple, if your local producers can make more why in the past 50yr's haven't they and you think they can. The UK has never been self sufficient in food production, ever. This is a brexit problem, can you demonstrate how the UK can increase production otherwise it's the problem that experts think it is. Good that the UK govt now thinks it's a good thing to listen to experts.

Supply chain being damaged ... What, like Nissan leaving the EU and ramping up in Sunderland!

Maybe read the full article, leads with a lovely click bait headline and they the full facts start coming out. Finishing with Given the size of the European market, the size of the movement that way would be much greater, so overall it would be a hit to UK automotive.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/03/nissan-eu-uk-hard-brexit">https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ard-brexit">https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/03/nissan-eu-uk-hard-brexit

GBP is slowly recovering from the Brexit manipulation and as anyone knows the Pound weakening has helped exports immensely. As for inflation, it's at its target of 2% and has been pretty much for 2 years.

? The UK is still in the EU shelter, it still benefit as if it were a full member while it's exchange rate falls. Back in 2015 before all this mess it was 1.4e to the pound, it's now 1.15e to the pound, following a hard brexit further south. Your understanding of a weak pound is very flawed. Economics 101, a weak currency gives short term gains in exports but the hit on imports and inflation will quickly eradicate any gain with increased costs pushing up selling prices. The double knock on is rising costs for UK people.

https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-does-a-lower-pound-boost-manufacturing-77052">https://theconversation.com/hard-eviden ... ring-77052">https://theconversation.com/hard-evidence-does-a-lower-pound-boost-manufacturing-77052

How about you worry about your own country and stop spending every minute on here telling us how crap our lives are going to be, it's none of your concern.

Wrong again Nick, not every min and brexit does affect my country, my business. I'm trying to understand the reason for such self harm, some here just want out and appreciate there's a price to be paid, but their happy with that. You on the other hand seem to thing there's the sunny uplands at the end of the rainbow.

[Nick]

I said the UK could break its agreement if it wanted, and it can, but how will that go down with the countries around the world about to enter agreements with the UK, its political suicide and breaking treaties is not something the UK would want to lower it's to doing.

So yes the UK has said it will honour it's agreements, the separation is taking place, so far it's a planned separation within the UK with an internal border, there is no technology available and most likely never will be.





The EU has FTA's with over 60 countries and these have removed Tariffs, only where the EU want's to protect a certain local food producer will the FTA have quotas, but only after the quota is there a tariff applied. You might not agree but every country in the world protects it's home food producers. The most basic of needs is food and most countries want to be self sufficient, this is why they all introduce tariffs on those food types that it produces at home. Otherwise buying cheap low quality food outside your country could close your home food producers, don't you see the problem with that ?  The UK won't reduce tariffs and bankrupt it's home food producers.

The barriers to trade are not just the price. Customs, paperwork, delays, quality, standards etc.. are all barriers and can have a greater effect on consumer choice.

The UK will be in control of its borders so there will be no delays or unnecessary paperwork, especially as we have MRA's with some big countries.

The UK tariff (for 2021) on beef ranges from 29% to 91%, but an average about 30%. So I would say post brexit for beef there's nowhere you can get beef that meets the UK quality standards anywhere in the world as cheap as when you were an EU member, unless your looking to buy some really poor quality hormone saturated beef. But even that will be more expensive. Likewise the UK will have 18% tariff on boneless chicken cuts. 76% tariff on fresh/chilled lamb carcass.



https://ahdb.org.uk/eu-and-uk-import-tariff-rates-for-selected-beef-products">https://ahdb.org.uk/eu-and-uk-import-ta ... f-products">https://ahdb.org.uk/eu-and-uk-import-tariff-rates-for-selected-beef-products

The UK is 100% self sufficient in lamb and 76% efficient in beef, it won't take long to ramp that up to 100%. Most major supermarkets sell only 100% UK beef already. The UK is almost self sufficient in now and seeing that most POL are chopped at 26 weeks it can be up to 100% in mo time at all.

But why are you harping on about groceries. Think about what the UK imports and the supply chains that will be affected. Time delays and having to hold stock, these barriers will have an effect that will be impact UK business. It's not just how much a steak costs in Tesco. This has been well documented, your living under a bush if you haven't see this.

None of this factors in the drop in sterling since 2016 and UK inflation, factor that in and your "we can buy cheaper" just doesn't add up in any way.

Supply chain being damaged ... What, like Nissan leaving the EU and ramping up in Sunderland!



GBP is slowly recovering from the Brexit manipulation and as anyone knows the Pound weakening has helped exports immensely. As for inflation, it's at its target of 2% and has been pretty much for 2 years.



How about you worry about your own country and stop spending every minute on here telling us how crap our lives are going to be, it's none of your concern.

[GerryT]

Firstly, thank you for the acknowledgment that the UK can actually steer it's own ship and is not beholden to the GFA, not that I for a minute want a return to the 1908's. I am sure the UK government won't want to derail the GFA either, but a separation must take place at some point, hopefully using technology instead of a hard border.

I said the UK could break its agreement if it wanted, and it can, but how will that go down with the countries around the world about to enter agreements with the UK, its political suicide and breaking treaties is not something the UK would want to lower it's to doing.

So yes the UK has said it will honour it's agreements, the separation is taking place, so far it's a planned separation within the UK with an internal border, there is no technology available and most likely never will be.

When you say tariff free that means no additional tariffs added within the EU 28 (27). The tariffs are added at the point of entry into the EU, this is like a label on a bag of sugar saying 'No added sugar'. The prices within the EU are already inflated to protect the internal markets, making the prices higher than outside. The UK will be able to buy without the added EU tariffs but I'm guessing you don't want to argue this point.

The EU has FTA's with over 60 countries and these have removed Tariffs, only where the EU want's to protect a certain local food producer will the FTA have quotas, but only after the quota is there a tariff applied. You might not agree but every country in the world protects it's home food producers. The most basic of needs is food and most countries want to be self sufficient, this is why they all introduce tariffs on those food types that it produces at home. Otherwise buying cheap low quality food outside your country could close your home food producers, don't you see the problem with that ?  The UK won't reduce tariffs and bankrupt it's home food producers.

The barriers to trade are not just the price. Customs, paperwork, delays, quality, standards etc.. are all barriers and can have a greater effect on consumer choice.

Gerry, please give me a product and scenario where the UK can't get it cheaper than the EU.

The UK tariff (for 2021) on beef ranges from 29% to 91%, but an average about 30%. So I would say post brexit for beef there's nowhere you can get beef that meets the UK quality standards anywhere in the world as cheap as when you were an EU member, unless your looking to buy some really poor quality hormone saturated beef. But even that will be more expensive. Likewise the UK will have 18% tariff on boneless chicken cuts. 76% tariff on fresh/chilled lamb carcass.



https://ahdb.org.uk/eu-and-uk-import-tariff-rates-for-selected-beef-products">https://ahdb.org.uk/eu-and-uk-import-ta ... f-products">https://ahdb.org.uk/eu-and-uk-import-tariff-rates-for-selected-beef-products



But why are you harping on about groceries. Think about what the UK imports and the supply chains that will be affected. Time delays and having to hold stock, these barriers will have an effect that will be impact UK business. It's not just how much a steak costs in Tesco. This has been well documented, your living under a bush if you haven't see this.

None of this factors in the drop in sterling since 2016 and UK inflation, factor that in and your "we can buy cheaper" just doesn't add up in any way.

[Nick]

I can follow no problem, I never said or intimated that the UK is being held to ransom. I know what you said and it must be a reflection of how you feel, nothing I said would be in any way seen as suggesting SI is hold the UK to ransom, that's just a preposterous suggestion. Only you can say why you reacted with that silly comment, but again your came out with it and I in no way suggested that, your words not mine.





Very good paper you linked but it in no way changes anything regarding brexit and the GFA. Obviously the UK can leave and do what ever it wants, it can ignore the GFA totally and just write that out of the history books and legislation, but that's unlikely as Johnson signed the WA which is another international treaty and this brings the GFA and NI front and centre. This agreement basically has agreed to honour the GFA and to do this it will keep just NI in the SM. This is why the UK is looking to employ 50,000 customs officials to look after the border between NI and GB.





Maybe a bannana or a orange, is that what brexit is about. But you must know what many experts don't, currently you purchase tariff free from the EU, that's changing come January unless a FTA is struck. You have 50,000 customs officials to pay for, this will affect freight costs, delays etc... yet you ask me about some foods.

Why don't you tell me the UK post January WTO tariffs on foods, such as beef ? or other foods ?

But international trade is far more about exports than imports. This brings money into your economy unlike imports. And at the moment that is without doubt going to be more expensive post brexit in most cases.

Firstly, thank you for the acknowledgment that the UK can actually steer it's own ship and is not beholden to the GFA, not that I for a minute want a return to the 1908's. I am sure the UK government won't want to derail the GFA either, but a separation must take place at some point, hopefully using technology instead of a hard border.



When you say tariff free that means no additional tariffs added within the EU 28 (27). The tariffs are added at the point of entry into the EU, this is like a label on a bag of sugar saying 'No added sugar'. The prices within the EU are already inflated to protect the internal markets, making the prices higher than outside. The UK will be able to buy without the added EU tariffs but I'm guessing you don't want to argue this point.



Gerry, please give me a product and scenario where the UK can't get it cheaper than the EU.

[GerryT]

Again you can't follow simple English language. I said YOU think that SI can hold the UK to ransom, nowhere did I say that SI is holding the UK to ransom, there is a massive difference.

I can follow no problem, I never said or intimated that the UK is being held to ransom. I know what you said and it must be a reflection of how you feel, nothing I said would be in any way seen as suggesting SI is hold the UK to ransom, that's just a preposterous suggestion. Only you can say why you reacted with that silly comment, but again your came out with it and I in no way suggested that, your words not mine.

Your understanding of the GFA are also flawed, you see the GFA is underpinned by the fact that the UK was a member of the EU and therefore bound by this. The UK is no Niger a member and at the end of the year no longer is governed by EU law so no, the GFA is not governed by any law.



https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/sites/default/files/TheGoodFridayAgreementBrexitandRights_0.pdf">https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/sit ... ghts_0.pdf">https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/sites/default/files/TheGoodFridayAgreementBrexitandRights_0.pdf

Very good paper you linked but it in no way changes anything regarding brexit and the GFA. Obviously the UK can leave and do what ever it wants, it can ignore the GFA totally and just write that out of the history books and legislation, but that's unlikely as Johnson signed the WA which is another international treaty and this brings the GFA and NI front and centre. This agreement basically has agreed to honour the GFA and to do this it will keep just NI in the SM. This is why the UK is looking to employ 50,000 customs officials to look after the border between NI and GB.

I do however note that you decided not to suggest a food item that the UK can't get cheaper outside the EU. Is this because there are none?

Maybe a bannana or a orange, is that what brexit is about. But you must know what many experts don't, currently you purchase tariff free from the EU, that's changing come January unless a FTA is struck. You have 50,000 customs officials to pay for, this will affect freight costs, delays etc... yet you ask me about some foods.

Why don't you tell me the UK post January WTO tariffs on foods, such as beef ? or other foods ?

But international trade is far more about exports than imports. This brings money into your economy unlike imports. And at the moment that is without doubt going to be more expensive post brexit in most cases.

[Nick]

Your words Nick



"And you thinking that SI is some big hitter holding the UK to ransom is..."



Your trying to deflect again Nick, my original message was stating the fact that the UK has now two internationally recognised treaties, the GFA and the withdrawal agreement both of which say's there won't be a border in Ireland (in the case of GFA it say's no change to travel of people, goods or business on the Island). Since GB is leaving the SM/CU the only solution is a sea border.

The UK is not being held to ransom and it's not being bullied or told what to do or any other slogan you care to try pin on this. The UK is a sovereign state and as such has made it's own decisions, it should have thought about that before entering these agreements, especially as one was only agreed last November.

So yes it was you talking about SI holding the UK to ransom, nobody else.

Again you can't follow simple English language. I said YOU think that SI can hold the UK to ransom, nowhere did I say that SI is holding the UK to ransom, there is a massive difference.



Your understanding of the GFA are also flawed, you see the GFA is underpinned by the fact that the UK was a member of the EU and therefore bound by this. The UK is no Niger a member and at the end of the year no longer is governed by EU law so no, the GFA is not governed by any law.



https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/sites/default/files/TheGoodFridayAgreementBrexitandRights_0.pdf">https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/sit ... ghts_0.pdf">https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/sites/default/files/TheGoodFridayAgreementBrexitandRights_0.pdf



I do however note that you decided not to suggest a food item that the UK can't get cheaper outside the EU. Is this because there are none?