EU budget squabble

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

Up until now the EU has been quite magnanimous in wanting to give us as reasonable a future relationship as possible without actually assisting in Brexit making the UK better off.  They did this despite our government, under both Theresa May and Boris Johnson, blowing hot and cold and continually holding its toys over the side of the pram.



The EU suffering hardship and division as a result of our departure is likely to change all that.  As I said before, Brexiters and Eurosceptics have scapegoated the EU for as long as I can remember but soon the UK will be the EU's scapegoat and we'll have nobody to blame but ourselves.

[Nick]

Isn't June given as the deadline for an extension request and he says he is not extending?

June is now the deadline for the EU to show their true intentions. Boris has got to follow through or the voters that have put faith in him will turn on him. Any extension will be the end of Boris I think.

[johnofgwent]

Isn't June given as the deadline for an extension request and he says he is not extending?

I think that date has been bandiedxabout by various people who thought their opinion could override the will of the majority and regrettably (in my view) failed to find those antics end with a rope and a lamp post and a cheering mob. Because they're still there and still plotting.

[Borchester]

Isn't June given as the deadline for an extension request and he says he is not extending?

I like Boris and reckon that he is the best PM available, but he is also a politician and thus a born liar. He knows that there have been so many deadlines that most of us have forgot which one is currently in favour. So come June he may have to ask for an extension, but he will say that he forced the EU to grant one and being Boris, he will probably get away with it.  

[T00ts]

Isn't June given as the deadline for an extension request and he says he is not extending?

[Borchester]

Yeah ...



One thing I wonder though.



Given Boris just said were walking away if draft proposals are not sorted by June, does that mean they can sing for the six months money they expect from us for that time period?

It is just Boris trying to put pressure on the EU. If it works then all well and good. And if it doesn't then it is still all well and good because he can claim that he was forced into doing what he probably intended to do all along by Perfidious Bruxelles.



I can't see any of this making a lot of odds, but it is nice to see a British PM chucking his weight around rather than taking it like poor Dozy Doris.

[johnofgwent]

Agreed, but I was thinking more along the lines of him spouting the EU party line.

Yeah ...



One thing I wonder though.



Given Boris just said were walking away if draft proposals are not sorted by June, does that mean they can sing for the six months money they expect from us for that time period?

[Nick]

Largely because the IRA's political wing gt more votes than he did

Agreed, but I was thinking more along the lines of him spouting the EU party line.

[johnofgwent]

Varadkar isn't so cocky now is he 😂

Largely because the IRA's political wing gt more votes than he did

[Nick]

Depends what you consider is the net figure, the UK gov site below would have the average net contribution "official" number at 11b but it goes on to say this doesn't include money the EU pays directly to UK such as research grants. From the attached the average for 2014 to 2018 was 7.8b, which includes the monies paid directly.



https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31">https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governme ... 2017-10-31">https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31

How strange, I went back to 2018, the most recent fully costed year. You go back to 2014-2017, the days of 7.8b, guess what Gerry, they ain't loosing 2014-2017 money, they're loosing 2018-2019 money. 11b

Countries contributions are below 1%

Yes there will be an impact. But not as much as your thinking. The UK imports 357b from the EU or about 8% of EU exports. That won't drop to zero even under a hard brexit, but let's say it drops by 100b, those business will then sell to other markets, say they recover 50% of the loss, meaning the EU GDP falls by 50b , it won't but for example sake. The EU GDP is about 18.8T, or 18,800b. This will fall by 50b or about 0.27%. That doesn't take into consideration the average growth of the EU.In 2018 the EU grew by 2.2%, in 2019 its about 1.53% and 2020 is expected to be about 1.6%. All pointing to zero impact on the EU.



It contributes to the EU fund 7.8b ( 0.0078T). To think that's a massive impact on soon to be 16T is ludicrous.

You're just making a fool of your self. The EU doesn't have its own GDP, it doesn't produce, buy or sell anything, I'm sure you've been told this before. The 18.8T is made up of all 28 EU members GDP added together, of which the UK's portion was 15.2%. So what you call the EU's GDP will fall by 15.2%, get it? That is 2.8 ish Billion which amazingly match's the UK GDP for 2017.

Question for you Nick, how much will it cost the UK to replicate all the regulatory bodies the EU provides for the UK ?

Jeez !!  We DON'T want all the EU regulations, that's what we voted to get away from and we certainly don't need to replicate them. We have been aligned for 45 years and the UK operates above and beyond the levels the EU require.

As a financial exercise Brexit has been shown to be a disaster for the UK and it's why people on here have constantly said it was about taking back control and not about money. Down with the bold EU booo.

Financial disaster? Really?



https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/economy-beats-gloomy-forecasts-to-be-third-fastest-growing-in-g7-52nvmw36s">https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/econ ... -52nvmw36s">https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/economy-beats-gloomy-forecasts-to-be-third-fastest-growing-in-g7-52nvmw36s



As for unemployment, it's a right mess!!



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50820280">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50820280





Seems you're worried about having a new SUPERPOWER on your doorstep Gerry.

[GerryT]

Sorry Gerry but you're wrong. For a start our net contributions are now at 11bn not 7.5bn.

Depends what you consider is the net figure, the UK gov site below would have the average net contribution "official" number at 11b but it goes on to say this doesn't include money the EU pays directly to UK such as research grants. From the attached the average for 2014 to 2018 was 7.8b, which includes the monies paid directly.



https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31">https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governme ... 2017-10-31">https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31

The other thing you're missing is, if the EU doesn't deal then those countries GDP that trade with the UK will drop so their 2% contribution will be lower... Or the EU will demand a higher percentage.

Countries contributions are below 1%

Yes there will be an impact. But not as much as your thinking. The UK imports 357b from the EU or about 8% of EU exports. That won't drop to zero even under a hard brexit, but let's say it drops by 100b, those business will then sell to other markets, say they recover 50% of the loss, meaning the EU GDP falls by 50b , it won't but for example sake. The EU GDP is about 18.8T, or 18,800b. This will fall by 50b or about 0.27%. That doesn't take into consideration the average growth of the EU.In 2018 the EU grew by 2.2%, in 2019 its about 1.53% and 2020 is expected to be about 1.6%. All pointing to zero impact on the EU.

The UK is the second largest NET contributor, to say it isn't going to impact the EU that much is ludicrous.

It contributes to the EU fund 7.8b ( 0.0078T). To think that's a massive impact on soon to be 16T is ludicrous.



Question for you Nick, how much will it cost the UK to replicate all the regulatory bodies the EU provides for the UK ?



As a financial exercise Brexit has been shown to be a disaster for the UK and it's why people on here have constantly said it was about taking back control and not about money. Down with the bold EU booo.

[GerryT]

Simple Gerry,ah yes being a superpower is very simple,I remember you posting that there's nothing wrong with an eu army.

I don't see there is a problem, I'd be more concerned about a single country having an army, that's when things have gone wrong in the past and will do in the future. An EU army is a great idea.

But alas I doubt that will happen in my life time or my children's either, if ever.

[cromwell]

Simple really, you'll find out when negotiating future trade deals. It will put sense on the "mutually beneficial trade deal" that's been mention on here alot. One thing being beneficial to both parties, very different when one is far larger.

As a trading block the EU is second to the USA. As 27 seperate countries the USA would walk all over each country.

Hows the USA trade deal going by the way ?  Has trump just recently pushed it out.

Simple Gerry,ah yes being a superpower is very simple,I remember you posting that there's nothing wrong with an eu army.

[Nick]

Lets get some perspective. The 2017 EU budget was 158b euro, this is spent in EU projects in the following areas:

14% is spent on growth and jobs in EU regions

34% on economic, social and territorial cohesion

37% on sustainable growth: natural resources

3% on security & citizenship

6% on Global europe



Then they spend 6% on Administration. That's the bit for running the EU institutions/salaries etc...



Every time the EU sits to agree the budget there are negotiations, nothing new this time round. What will be missing will be the 7.5b stg approx 9b euro UK nett contribution. If everyone puts in the same again then the budget will reduce from 158b to 149b. That's a 5.7% drop in the budget, it's not the end of the world. Either each country pays in a fraction of a percent more or each spending area has a slight trim.

The majority of the EU budget is spent on projects to develop the less well off areas of the EU, these are added bonus projects, a small reduction isn't the end of the world.



The UK payment won't be missed to the extent being made out here, there are far more important areas where the UK will be missed by the EU, such as.

 - The damage to the block itself and it's ability to strike deals and stand as a superpower along side USA, China and emerging areas.

 - Joint security/communications co-operation, the Johnson govt. signals walls and barriers, it's hard to see these areas working well in the coming years.

 - A hard brexit looks more likely and this will damage trade in both the EU and UK.

Sorry Gerry but you're wrong. For a start our net contributions are now at 11bn not 7.5bn.



The other thing you're missing is, if the EU doesn't deal then those countries GDP that trade with the UK will drop so their 2% contribution will be lower... Or the EU will demand a higher percentage.



The UK is the second largest NET contributor, to say it isn't going to impact the EU that much is ludicrous.

[GerryT]

Funny that Gerry,why do you want to be a superpower?

Simple really, you'll find out when negotiating future trade deals. It will put sense on the "mutually beneficial trade deal" that's been mention on here alot. One thing being beneficial to both parties, very different when one is far larger.

As a trading block the EU is second to the USA. As 27 seperate countries the USA would walk all over each country.

Hows the USA trade deal going by the way ?  Has trump just recently pushed it out.