LOCKDOWN 2 - the November experience

[Thomas]

Covid-19 may have infected 10 percent of world's population, WHO says
"Best estimates" indicate that 1 in 10 people may have contracted the vire — more than 20 times the number of those confirmed, world health body says.

The estimate — which would amount to more than 760 million people based on a current world population of about 7.6 billion — far outstrips the number of confirmed cases as tallied by both WHO and Johns Hopkins University, now more than 35 million worldwide. More than one million people have died from the virus.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/covid-19-may-have-infected-10-percent-world-s-population-n1242118

[Thomas]

It's all very well people on here making light of covid-19 to show what tough guys they are but deep down everyone is scared, it's just that some respond with paranoia and others respond with denial.'

...and who is acting the tough guy over covid 19?

Everyone is concerned , to a lesser or greater degree. I know i am.

The thing is most of us dont let it turn us into hysterics unlike you........constantly moaning about the worst case scenarios and bandying around armageddon death tolls and infection rates.

Unlike some of the retired and elderly , most of us dont have the time either to be sitting around with nothing better to do than worry about something completely beyond our control.

Barry hasnt responded with paranoia if thats who you are talking about.....he quoted the WHO figures from a few weeks back which showed they believed despite the official recorded figures , their own estminstes showed 10% of the planet , around 780 million and counting had past or present covid 19 and a million or so had died from it , showing the mortality rate as a lot lower than you were screaming about.

This isnt something that should be dismissed out of hand...far from it , but neither is it on the level of armageddon you and some others are making out.

As ever , the happy medium is somewhere in between.

[HDQQ]

If no one dies it is not a pandemic, just a lot of folk acting like big Jessies

A pandemic is an epidemic that spreads around the world. Definition wise, it has nothing to do with whether or not anyone dies.

[HDQQ]

It remains to be seen how effective the new lockdown will be with schools remaining open. It would make sense to continue the lockdown through December and through the Christmas holidays, when schools will be closed anyway.

It's all very well people on here making light of covid-19 to show what tough guys they are but deep down everyone is scared, it's just that some respond with paranoia and others respond with denial.'

[Barry]

Since the start of the pandemic, the total figures show that 3% of people who have been confirmed as having covid-19 have died (Worldometer). That's about 1 in 33 of all cases worldwide. Then we have to take into account the unconfirmed cases and asymptomatic cases, which can only be estimated. Even if that bumps up the total of infections by tenfold, then that's still a mortality rate of 1 in 330, which is about 3 times as bad as seasonal flu.

The WHO estimated a week or so ago that 10% of the World population had been infected. (750,000,000) and at the time a million had died.
That's 1 in 750, which is comparable with seasonal flu.
Now tell me it is also age related, which we all know as the average age of death is 82+.

[Borchester]

That's your definition, but it seems no one has to die for a disease outbreak to be classified a pandemic.

If no one dies it is not a pandemic, just a lot of folk acting like big Jessies

[patman post]

Easy.

A pandemic is when lots of folk die. When it is one out of every fifteen hundred it is a nasty outbreak of flu

That's your definition, but it seems no one has to die for a disease outbreak to be classified a pandemic.

How many people die from a pandemic depends upon:

    • The number of people who become infected
    • The severity of disease caused by the virus (its virulence)
    • The vulnerability of affected populations
    • The effectiveness of preventive steps

https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/qa/how-many-people-die-from-a-pandemic

[Borchester]

You're getting worse and worse, Borch.  Since the start of the pandemic, the total figures show that 3% of people who have been confirmed as

Which comes back to one death out of every fifteen hundred. And that means you have more chance of being brained by a packet of Lemsip in the pharmaceutical section in Sainsbury's

[Borchester]

Don't see how you can be so sure:

Easy.

A pandemic is when lots of folk die. When it is one out of every fifteen hundred it is a nasty outbreak of flu

[HDQQ]

We don't have a pandemic. Right now the death rate is less than 1 out of every 1500. This is not a plague. It is not the Black Death killing one in two, it is a particularly nasty attack of the flu that is thinning out a lot of folk who were going to die anyway.

If Boris has any plans to cut back on Christmas that is it as far as I am concerned.

You're getting worse and worse, Borch.  Since the start of the pandemic, the total figures show that 3% of people who have been confirmed as having covid-19 have died (Worldometer). That's about 1 in 33 of all cases worldwide. Then we have to take into account the unconfirmed cases and asymptomatic cases, which can only be estimated. Even if that bumps up the total of infections by tenfold, then that's still a mortality rate of 1 in 330, which is about 3 times as bad as seasonal flu.

In the UK there have been 1,034,914 confirmed cases of covid-19 and 46,717 deaths. That works out at a mortality rate of 1 in 22.

I'm assuming your 1 in 1500 is the covid-19 death rate for the entire population of the UK. But only about 1/68 of the population has been confirmed as having had covid-19 so far. So even if we multiply that by 10 like to estimate the total infections, that's about 1/7 of the population. So there's still 6/7 of the population to be infected if we have no precautions. Assuming a linear correlation for a moment, that would mean that we'd end up with 1 in 214 of the entire UK population dying from covid-19.  In reality, with fewer and fewer 'fresh' people to infect, infections would decline, but not before it causes a lot more deaths.

[patman post]

We don't have a pandemic. Right now the death rate is less than 1 out of every 1500.

Don't see how you can be so sure:
pandemic: (of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world
prevalent: widespread in a particular area or at a particular time

No mention of a numerical threshold in either definition.

Then WHO announces COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic:
https://www.euro.who.int/en/health-topics/health-emergencies/coronavirus-covid-19/news/news/2020/3/who-announces-covid-19-outbreak-a-pandemic

But along comes an article in The Lancet, by its editor-in-chief who postulates COVID-19 is not a pandemic, but a syndemic. He says:
Two categories of disease are interacting within specific populations—infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and an array of non-communicable diseases (NCDs).
The aggregation of these diseases on a background of social and economic disparity exacerbates the adverse effects of each separate disease.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32000-6/fulltext

The Lancet may well be correct, but isn't this just finding a fancier name for what medics have discovered and are already administering appropriate treatments for as they find them...?

[patman post]

Even in car accidents Pat, on another note I was watching strictly as always last night, when it dawned on me Politicians must be picked because the are incapable of doing anything well, they are rubbish at politics and dancing.  As has been proven by Ed Balls and now their latest choice dancer.
at a wild guess, if I were one of those boardroom fascist types everyday would be like a birthday.

?

[T00ts]

Even in car accidents Pat, on another note I was watching strictly as always last night, when it dawned on me Politicians must be picked because the are incapable of doing anything well, they are rubbish at politics and dancing.  As has been proven by Ed Balls and now their latest choice dancer.
at a wild guess, if I were one of those boardroom fascist types everyday would be like a birthday.

I'm so glad I have avoided Strictly ever since the first series.

[Sheepy]

Even in car accidents Pat, on another note I was watching strictly as always last night, when it dawned on me Politicians must be picked because the are incapable of doing anything well, they are rubbish at politics and dancing.  As has been proven by Ed Balls and now their latest choice dancer.
at a wild guess, if I were one of those boardroom fascist types everyday would be like a birthday.

[patman post]

We must end the lockdown when no one is dying in the country.
The state cannot protect us from death. We all die. This virus hastens it a bit. There are over 7 billion people on the planet. The virus has made no inroads into over population.
It's natural and humanity's over reaction will be seen as the worst example of foolishness in years to come, IMO.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Three times as many people have died from Covid-19 than from flu and pneumonia in England and Wales this year, according to official figures.

Between January and August 2020, there were 48,168 deaths due to Covid-19 compared to 13,600 from pneumonia. Only 394 were due to flu.

The Office for National Statistics analysis looked at the underlying cause of death.

Deaths from flu have been particularly low this year.

The mortality rate for Covid-19 is also significantly higher than influenza and pneumonia rates for both 2020 and the five-year average," said Sarah Caul, from the ONS.

The figures show that Covid-19 is a bigger risk to people than flu, partly because there is a vaccine that protects those at risk against the flu strain circulating every year. The coronavirus is a brand new infection and there is, as yet, no vaccine.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54463511

So vaccines work — as do Hands, Face, Space: these work for most germs and viruses. I suggest the views that Sweden does it better, or the economy must come first, have to be proved for the UK context before the bulk of the population would agree.

My view is that until there is such proof (taking account of all salient factors such as population densities, conurbation sizes, etc) such views should be regarded as bordering on Andrew Wakefield territory...