What is really happening in the Ukraine Conflict?

[Sampanviking]

You started this to promote your own propaganda. You don't know exactly what is actually happening on the front line any more than the rest of us on here.
The only discussion to be had , is to discuss what in the main is propaganda. Unless it's to understand that invading a sovereign state that neighbours you is intrinsically wrong. And that for an invader wielding the military force Putin does, things are not going that well . If he wanted the two areas he has recognised as independent and now says  will concentrate on , he has had a whole month to overwhelm an area that was supposed to welcome him with open arms, the fact is he has hardly moved says a lot more than you would accept.  It's possible Putin, can bulldoze Ukraine, that's never been out of doubt. But it's already obvious that he and his country are going to pay one hell of a price in the doing. He could never have wanted a protracted situation, all the more so if that meant casualties at the present rate. It's not needed to know the exact casualty rates, or precise manoeuvres , to know this is not going well that's easy to see.

Where exactly do you think the DPR and LPR forces come from? thin air? There are up to sixty thousand Ukrainian regulars and Nationalist Militia sitting in North Donetsk. The Russians have not had to advance very far to find them. Now they are starting to deal with them. Look at the map again. The Russians have positioned themselves like two jaws around them, jaws that will close as the Ukrainian lines crumble. The choice they will have is either to stay where they are in encircled in the cauldron or run the gauntlet as they try and get across the river.
Nobody wants a protracted situation, but is that is what is handed to you its what you have to deal with.
I said earlier that the Ukrainians should have headed for the River on day one, but a clearly political decision from media presentation obsessed political leaders have literally hung their army out to dry. So yes its not the war I suspect the Russians were expecting, as they never expected Kiev to make such a frankly dumb decision as the one they have made.

Bit of Chairman Mao for you "Better to lose land and save men as land can be reclaimed, but men are gone forever"

[Good old]

Can you please take the Political Beauty Contest to another thread. I started this to discuss what is actually happening in the combat zone, not to rehash the hand wringing and virtue signalling of the Propaganda War.
Thanks

You started this to promote your own propaganda. You don't know exactly what is actually happening on the front line any more than the rest of us on here. 
The only discussion to be had , is to discuss what in the main is propaganda. Unless it's to understand that invading a sovereign state that neighbours you is intrinsically wrong. And that for an invader wielding the military force Putin does, things are not going that well . If he wanted the two areas he has recognised as independent and now says  will concentrate on , he has had a whole month to overwhelm an area that was supposed to welcome him with open arms, the fact is he has hardly moved says a lot more than you would accept.  It's possible Putin, can bulldoze Ukraine, that's never been out of doubt. But it's already obvious that he and his country are going to pay one hell of a price in the doing. He could never have wanted a protracted situation, all the more so if that meant casualties at the present rate. It's not needed to know the exact casualty rates, or precise manoeuvres , to know this is not going well that's easy to see. 

[cromwell]

Can you please take the Political Beauty Contest to another thread. I started this to discuss what is actually happening in the combat zone, not to rehash the hand wringing and virtue signalling of the Propaganda War.
Thanks

No you didn't,you started this to promote a single one sided version of not just what's happening on the ground but promoting the virtues of that one side.

When Nick makes you a mod I'm sure he'll let you know.

[Sampanviking]

Can you please take the Political Beauty Contest to another thread. I started this to discuss what is actually happening in the combat zone, not to rehash the hand wringing and virtue signalling of the Propaganda War.
Thanks

[Sheepy]

He might not be completely mad. But anyone that can wave a nuclear end to humanity in your face , as if he is merely threatening to tread on your toe . Has to be highly suspect. That is in no way to underestimate him ,or his ability to be effective in an aggressive manner. He isn't that bright if he thinks joining Russia to the rest of the world as a charred poisoned mass floating around the sun is a good tool for  gaining control of one of his neighbours.

Well as I actually listen to what he says rather than think he can be waved away with a stroke of the hand, he tells me he was left with no other choice, which doesn't surprise me personally as I know how these things can work. 

[Good old]

But then according to you he is a lunatic which obviously isn't so, so that angle failed so now we have another.

He might not be completely mad. But anyone that can wave a nuclear end to humanity in your face , as if he is merely threatening to tread on your toe . Has to be highly suspect. That is in no way to underestimate him ,or his ability to be effective in an aggressive manner. He isn't that bright if he thinks joining Russia to the rest of the world as a charred poisoned mass floating around the sun is a good tool for  gaining control of one of his neighbours.

[cromwell]

But then according to you he is a lunatic which obviously isn't so, so that angle failed so now we have another.

Oh I dunno,being a poisoner ain't exactly the rationale of a balanced personality is it?

[Sheepy]

Which had , and has no baring on whether he has made the right move or not.  All he achieves is, the west will not be carrying on as normal now. Bit of a gain that is I don't think.

But then according to you he is a lunatic which obviously isn't so, so that angle failed so now we have another. 

[DeppityDawg]

Don't doubt it based on what actual experts say in your link.

However everyone else on here is making out to fit in with what they want to see happening and an end result 

I think Streetwalkers new logo covers it.

Yes, I saw that 

[Good old]

Except of course he has been saying he would for years and everyone thought he wouldn't and they could carry on as they please. Now of course everyone pretends it is something else and it wouldn't blow up in their face along ethnic lines like Yugoslavia.

Which had , and has no baring on whether he has made the right move or not.  All he achieves is, the west will not be carrying on as normal now. Bit of a gain that is I don't think.

[Sheepy]

t's all guess work, none of us can say for sure ,what Putins , or his armed forces had in mind when they took the major step of invading their  next door neighbour.

Except of course he has been saying he would for years and everyone thought he wouldn't and they could carry on as they please. Now of course everyone pretends it is something else and it wouldn't blow up in their face along ethnic lines like Yugoslavia. 

[cromwell]

I'm not making out anything.

Don't doubt it based on what actual experts say in your link.

However everyone else on here is making out to fit in with what they want to see happening and an end result  

I think Streetwalkers new logo covers it.

[B0ycey]

I think I would defer to the Dawg on this one Boycey. The Russians most certainly do make extensive use of rail on their own turf and when they deploy in Exercise to former Soviet Union countries. There is always loads of footage at these excises of Russian Armour rolling on and off of flat beds on long trains.
Syria is not a really a comparison, principally because there were hardly any Russian ground forces in the country and none (to my knowledge) were active on the Front lines.
The Russians not bombing the rail network as they wish to use it themselves later is highly likely and totally plausible. I will just repeat that they have not bombed the major road bridges over the Dneiper either, which could be for a number of reasons, and none of them mutually exclusive.

But the convoys literally rolled over the border Sampan. Whether they would use the rail network is completely different to needing to use it in any case. And no, Syria is a perfectly good example of Russian logistical ability. Russia does not border Syria. It would have to have other logistical abilities away from ground networks to get their hardware there. And they did have significant number of troops in Syria as it happens, although it is true most of the fighting was done by Assads Army so you're mostly wrong here.

[Good old]

It's all guess work, none of us can say for sure ,what Putins , or his armed forces had in mind when they took the major step of invading their  next door neighbour.
Just taking over the eastern areas, was never likely to have been the objective , unless Ukraine was subjected in almost every sense. And if it was the reason, it has been a huge mistake because it will only ever remain a running sore , with Putin, just as paranoid about the Ukraine, as he is now. As for Crimea, he had it, and wasn't likely to lose it.
It could be that not destroying the rail, or for that matter , major roads,  was for later military reasons,  but just as likely because he doesn't want to take a country destroyed from one end to the other. This would apply to the uncalled for but  limited  destruction of Kiev, and most other cities, so far.
Much more likely is he , wanted the lot, but thought if he bigged it up enough the Ukrainians would give it to him. So he could install a pro- Russian regime,.  That isn't going to happen, and it must be obvious the potential cost in gear and casualties , plus the problem of just how much damage he might have to do to the prize. He could still take Ukraine by sheer force of arms, but if so it would seem he will have to destroy its cities , it's infrastructure. It really has to be nothing more than a massive mistake on his part.
The west looks on ,he educates , but none of it to his own real benefit. Because it would seem he has only created a mess that he will have the greatest difficulty clearing up.
And all he can be sure of , is he has alerted the west to how dangerous he actually is, causing a reaction that will involve even more resources put into armed capabilities. And rubber stamped the fact that he is not one to do business with in trade terms . All of which isolates him and his people.

[Groo]

The Soviets might have relied on rail during the Russian revolution against the White Army, they don't rely on it now. If they haven't targeted it, it is because it isn't needed to be targeted. Sometimes people really should just listen to what they say. This war is about demilitarsation and denazification of Ukraine. Whether the plan initially was to take Keiv and place in a dummy government we will never know. But what we do know is the objective of this war. Russia aren't targeting civilians or infrastructure. They do however target military sites. The reason the mall and the hospital got bombed, wasn't to attack Ukrainians but because those sites were being used to house military personnel and equipment. So there isn't a need to target and destroy Ukraine completely because ultimately Russia will most likely want to be part of the rebuilding of Ukraine. And from what they said yesterday, they must think that Ukraine has had its offensive capacity eliminated which was their first objective. The next objective is now denazification. Melitopol isn't getting targeted because of its strategic importance but because it is home to the Avov Battalion whom are Neo-Nazis. Russia have focused most of their effort East because Eastern Ukraine is more pro Russian. There is logic in why Donatsk and Luhansk should be independent. I was reading yesterday that Ukraine seem stubborn not declaring Russian as an official language of Ukraine which doesn't make sense given these areas are Russian speaking. These stall talks which means the war continues. That isn't good for anyone, most certainly those stuck in Malitopol. I hope we can see another corridor offered to get those out but given the last one Ukraine declined the offer, it maybe irrelevant anyway. I expect a retreat from Kiev in the coming days and more deployment in Donbass. My guess the second phase of this war will be the peacekeeping mission. Pushing Ukraine out of Luhansk and Donatsk and protecting these districts. We can also expect more offensive against the Avov Battalion. The rest of Ukraine will likely be spared like the railways given that isn't part of the objective of this war. Russia aren't America. They aren't in Ukraine for nation building but peacekeeping. And given Armenia is asking for more Russian troops, it maybe some that are currently stationed and sitting in Keiv will be deployed there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAsf6dsq3rQ