Why I want Boris back

[papasmurf]

A convenient little snap, how about the whole of 2022 and Q1 / Q2 2023?

Lots more at that link:-

[Nick]

It is doing better than the UK. More at link:-


GDP - International Comparisons: Key Economic Indicators - House of Commons Library (parliament.uk)

A convenient little snap, how about the whole of 2022 and Q1 / Q2 2023?

[papasmurf]

France's economy is booming cause you're having a nice time?

It is doing better than the UK. More at link:-


GDP - International Comparisons: Key Economic Indicators - House of Commons Library (parliament.uk)

[Nick]

Mumbai has nothing to do with my post — India's always enjoyed abject poverty alongside fabulous wealth. Isn't it currently siding with Russia and enjoying low price oil?

Unlike India, France share many standards and values with the UK — except that today French energy costs are reasonable or the consumer, food is plentiful, and the cost of living is not rocketing out of reach of the poorest because of the realistic benefits and welfare system. This is one reason so many more migrants opt to live in France than the UK.

France is not facing the severe emigration from its teaching and medical professions nor facing exorbitant travel costs that affect life in the UK.

You'll have to try harder to convince me you really experience what you post about. 

India shares an abundance of values with the U.K., Afternoon tea, Polo, the fact they have overtaken both France and the U.K. as the fifth largest economy shows how well they have taken the opportunities given to them by the British. 

My experience is irrelevant to this, you're the one pointing to the state of a nation based on your adventures in one small region. I'm in a nice room in the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel, with a flight to Kathmandu booked for tomorrow. Should I suggest that the Indian nation is ok because I'm surrounded by well off Indians sat by the pool? That's what you're suggesting, France's economy is booming cause you're having a nice time?

[Nick]

I'm not 100% sure that's right.

But let's pretend it is for a moment.

You said, "France passed the U.K. GDP 2020/2021 and we are now back a good way in front of them"

That means we were ahead dropped behind, and now are back ahead.....

What happened in 2020/21 that might have caused the UK to drop behind?... The pandemic.

The UK economy dropped much further than France or Germany through the pandemic, and so the recovery growth has been higher because we were starting from lower level.

However when you compare each country to where it was before the pandemic (2019) France and Germany are ahead of where thet were (though Germany just barely).

The UK is still below where we were in 2019.

If Brexit, the economic effect of which hit right in the middle of that period, were such a great thing, we would expect the UK growth relative to pre Brexit and pandemic to to much stronger than France and Germany.

So why is the UK not yet back to where it was before Brexit and pandemic, whilst Germany and France are ahead?

The U.K. locked down harder and faster than the rest of the EU, of course we took a bigger hit, consequently we came out a lot sooner than the EU did. It's a pretty straightforward concept. The fact France was in front of us 20/21 and are now behind shows Brexit has very little bearing on our economy.
Somewhere on the forum is post by one of the remainers joking about France overtaking the U.K. to have the 5th largest economy, I'll see if I can find it.
The salient point is we are pulling away from France, a point none of the remainers care to address.



And this BBC rubbish is what you remainers base your doom and gloom on. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64452995.amp

[patman post]

If you can't relate that to your post then you need help.
You posted that everything is all lovely in the small part of France you're in, citing this as evidence everything in France is going better that the U.K.
I posted that I'm currently in Mumbai, where strangely enough it was a public holiday (independence day). Everything here is as you pointed out in France, except it's a dry day. People in the streets, markets full to bursting, yet a few miles away lies the biggest slum in the world where there is abject misery.
Your tiny view of how France is, means nothing, the country is still doing worse that the U.K. 
So, again, explain to me how Brexit is doing damage to so many countries? They're all suffering exactly the same as the U.K.: perhaps it could just be the lag from Covid and the Putin effect. 

Mumbai has nothing to do with my post — India's always enjoyed abject poverty alongside fabulous wealth. Isn't it currently siding with Russia and enjoying low price oil?

Unlike India, France share many standards and values with the UK — except that today French energy costs are reasonable or the consumer, food is plentiful, and the cost of living is not rocketing out of reach of the poorest because of the realistic benefits and welfare system. This is one reason so many more migrants opt to live in France than the UK.

France is not facing the severe emigration from its teaching and medical professions nor facing exorbitant travel costs that affect life in the UK.

You'll have to try harder to convince me you really experience what you post about.  

[BeElBeeBub]

France passed the U.K. GDP 2020/2021 and we are now back a good way in front of them. Please explain how this has happened if A) We are not out performing them. B) Brexit is doing so much damage?

I'm not 100% sure that's right. 

But let's pretend it is for a moment. 

You said, "France passed the U.K. GDP 2020/2021 and we are now back a good way in front of them"

That means we were ahead dropped behind, and now are back ahead..... 

What happened in 2020/21 that might have caused the UK to drop behind?... The pandemic. 

The UK economy dropped much further than France or Germany through the pandemic, and so the recovery growth has been higher because we were starting from lower level. 

However when you compare each country to where it was before the pandemic (2019) France and Germany are ahead of where thet were (though Germany just barely). 

The UK is still below where we were in 2019.

If Brexit, the economic effect of which hit right in the middle of that period, were such a great thing, we would expect the UK growth relative to pre Brexit and pandemic to to much stronger than France and Germany.

So why is the UK not yet back to where it was before Brexit and pandemic, whilst Germany and France are ahead? 

[Nick]

What's Mumbai got to do with anything I posted — I'm currently enjoying the best that Burgundy has to offer and the cheerfulness of the local folk. There's no shortages, no empty shelves, and no long faces.

It's a national holiday today and we're about to enjoy a local surf and turf barbecue. Even a couple of German tourists have expressed their sympathies for us in the UK — probably influenced by the Springer press, as it works both ways.

Seems to me that you rely too much on central office bullshit and it's recycled versions found as told to you from Mail and Telegraph...

If you can't relate that to your post then you need help. 
You posted that everything is all lovely in the small part of France you're in, citing this as evidence everything in France is going better that the U.K. 
I posted that I'm currently in Mumbai, where strangely enough it was a public holiday (independence day). Everything here is as you pointed out in France, except it's a dry day. People in the streets, markets full to bursting, yet a few miles away lies the biggest slum in the world where there is abject misery. 
Your tiny view of how France is, means nothing, the country is still doing worse that the U.K.  
So, again, explain to me how Brexit is doing damage to so many countries? They're all suffering exactly the same as the U.K.: perhaps it could just be the lag from Covid and the Putin effect.  

[Nick]

Nick you spend far too much time out of the country, even Farage is crying is his beer because of the disaster Brexit has turned into. When I do post evidence as I have done many times you either don't read it or ignore it.

You've never posted any evidence, you just do your usual BS post that you've already posted it. 

[Nick]

I don't think we are doing better than France.

The only metric we could be doing better is growth over the last year but that doesn't tell the whole story.
There is good news as the IMF are longer forecasting the UK economy contracting in 2023 and 2024, instead having slight growth.

All from the recent Hoc library report https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

France passed the U.K. GDP 2020/2021 and we are now back a good way in front of them. Please explain how this has happened if A) We are not out performing them. B) Brexit is doing so much damage? 

[patman post]

You mean like Germany and many other EU countries that are in recession. That's your argument gone there.
I've just checked and now the Eurozone it's self is in recession, so how is Brexit hitting us if we are doing better than the Eurozone?

I'm in Mumbai ATM and no amount of hustle and bustle in France comes close to here. The street markets in France don't come close to the activity here, yet it is home to the biggest slum and poverty stricken areas anywhere in the world. Your arguments don't hold water, the U.K. economy has been pulling away from France's for years, and still is. So how is Brexit holding us back again?

What's Mumbai got to do with anything I posted — I'm currently enjoying the best that Burgundy has to offer and the cheerfulness of the local folk. There's no shortages, no empty shelves, and no long faces.

It's a national holiday today and we're about to enjoy a local surf and turf barbecue. Even a couple of German tourists have expressed their sympathies for us in the UK — probably influenced by the Springer press, as it works both ways.

Seems to me that you rely too much on central office bullshit and it's recycled versions found as told to you from Mail and Telegraph...

[papasmurf]

You need to show the effects of Brexit, 

Nick you spend far too much time out of the country, even Farage is crying is his beer because of the disaster Brexit has turned into. When I do post evidence as I have done many times you either don't read it or ignore it.

[BeElBeeBub]

Todays pensioners are paid for by todays taxes, this is fundamental economics. If you don't know this Smurf you need to keep up with current affairs, like you keep telling everyone else to.

I don't think we are doing better than France. 

The only metric we could be doing better is growth over the last year but that doesn't tell the whole story.

For 2022 as a whole, UK GDP growth was 4.1%. This figure compares GDP in all of 2022, with all of 2021. The relatively strong rate of growth in 2022 is mostly a result of the continued recovery from pandemic-related weakness in early 2021. (GDP growth over the course of 2022 in the UK was essentially flat.)

The UK had the largest decline in GDP among the G7 in 2020 (-11.0%) the first year of the pandemic and its relatively strong performances in 2021 (+7.6%) and 2022 (+4.1%) were largely a recovery from the weakness in 2020 and early 2021

There is good news as the IMF are longer forecasting the UK economy contracting in 2023 and 2024, instead having slight growth. 

All from the recent Hoc library report https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

[BeElBeeBub]

He only got elected in the first place because he had a sense of humour , such is the quality of todays politicians . They all lie, at least Boris gave us a few laughs .

Few have lied as prolifically as Johnson. 

And let's  it forget, he's one of few MPs and the only PM to have been found in contempt of Parliament by lying to it. 

And he isn't even that funny, unless you are easily impressed hy some crappy references to the classics and bad latin.

[Nick]

Nick, it is because as I predicted years ago and the ONLY reason I voted remain, is because I knew the Tories would make a total bog of Brexit and they have. More and more people are being badly effected by Brexit. You need to take your Brexit blinkers off.


The impact of Brexit on the UK economy: Reviewing the evidence | CEPR


So, taking all this together, what's the bottom line? First, the public is right. Brexit has damaged the UK economy. But, inevitably, the mechanisms and hence the impacts have been considerably more complex than economists could incorporate in macroeconomic or trade models, with their inevitably simplifying assumptions.  To simplify hugely, however, it would be reasonable to say that the impact on trade overall has been broadly consistent with predictions so far, that on immigration much less negative (and perhaps even positive) and on investment somewhat worse.

You need to show the effects of Brexit, the review you posted has zero evidence in it, just a load of nonsense. To say Brexit has followed predictions is a joke. 

And as I've just pointed out to Pat, the U.K. is pulling ahead of France, still. How can that be if Brexit is damaging us?