Latest Chinese export - coronavirus COVID-19

[Borchester]

Yes I guess so, but the number was later adjusted to 55.

Then make it 56 because if the numbers go up much more I will have to send my coal money to Barry's favourite Dogs' Home.

 :shock:

[T00ts]

Well Toots, I reckon that at least 36 of the cases are critical.  

Yes I guess so, but the number was later adjusted to 55.

[Borchester]

[size=150]Latest numbers[/size]



1543 confirmed cases   36 deceased.



It means very little. How many are critical?

Well Toots, I reckon that at least 36 of the cases are critical.  

[T00ts]

While it's obviously important to smooth out the peak of people needing NHS treatment, the new measures, if adhered to, will get a grip on the epidemic here and gradually reduce it to zero.



Yesterday we were being told the epidemic could infect 60% of the population and last until next spring. Today there is at least a possibility of it being over by the summer if person-to-person transmission of the virus is disrupted sufficiently.  And the government still has the option of compulsory lockdown if the current measures don't work.

I wouldn't put money on that!

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

While it's obviously important to smooth out the peak of people needing NHS treatment, the new measures, if adhered to, will get a grip on the epidemic here and gradually reduce it to zero.



Yesterday we were being told the epidemic could infect 60% of the population and last until next spring. Today there is at least a possibility of it being over by the summer if person-to-person transmission of the virus is disrupted sufficiently.  And the government still has the option of compulsory lockdown if the current measures don't work.

[T00ts]

At last Boris Johnson has given us some reassurance by putting the UK into a sort of voluntary lockdown situation.  I've just seen that Trump has ordered the whole USA into lockdown.  It's also been announced that France is going into full lockdown.



Personally I feel very relieved at these moves.  I no longer feel the British people were being needlessly abandoned to an avoidable plague.  Drastically reducing human contact will surely reduce the number of new infections but that won't start to show in the statistics for a week or two because of the number of new cases that will still arise from people infected before these restrictions were imposed.  It doesn't stop the individual worry about oneself or one's loved ones getting the disease, perhaps during an essential visit to the shops or from one's partner via their work.  But it gives hope that the risk will soon begin to diminish day by day.  



I like to think that senior politicians have been shown convincing evidence that lockdown has worked and is continuing to work. We know about China and South Korea and the 10 towns in northern Italy that were the first stage of the lockdown there.  But perhaps there's more specific data on towns and regions in China that us ordinary people haven't yet seen.



The new worry is how we're going to cope with this new restricted lifestyle, especially for older people who are strongly urged to self-isolate completely, and how the economy will cope. Those are big worries but noting like the horror of an unchecked spread of coronavirus and the scale of grief and suffering that would have caused.



Let's hope most people obey the spirit of these new restrictions.

I really don't think today's announcements were unexpected. BJ and his experts have said from the outset that the measures undertaken would be progressive as time moved on. They have stressed all along that they were on a path and that timing was crucial. The fact that they have not been draconian thus far is all to the good. The hope as I understand it is that the infection can be controlled to some degree in terms of numbers hitting the hospitals at any one time and delayed while the NHS gets the equipment and technicians/operators it needs. One thing about the British is that we don't normally react with knee jerk reactions. We are so European now that some have imbibed the hot blood of the Mediterraneans.



The numbers are going to get scary however we play it. We just need to keep our nerve.

[Hyperduck Quack Quack]

At last Boris Johnson has given us some reassurance by putting the UK into a sort of voluntary lockdown situation.  I've just seen that Trump has ordered the whole USA into lockdown.  It's also been announced that France is going into full lockdown.



Personally I feel very relieved at these moves.  I no longer feel the British people were being needlessly abandoned to an avoidable plague.  Drastically reducing human contact will surely reduce the number of new infections but that won't start to show in the statistics for a week or two because of the number of new cases that will still arise from people infected before these restrictions were imposed.  It doesn't stop the individual worry about oneself or one's loved ones getting the disease, perhaps during an essential visit to the shops or from one's partner via their work.  But it gives hope that the risk will soon begin to diminish day by day.  



I like to think that senior politicians have been shown convincing evidence that lockdown has worked and is continuing to work. We know about China and South Korea and the 10 towns in northern Italy that were the first stage of the lockdown there.  But perhaps there's more specific data on towns and regions in China that us ordinary people haven't yet seen.



The new worry is how we're going to cope with this new restricted lifestyle, especially for older people who are strongly urged to self-isolate completely, and how the economy will cope. Those are big worries but noting like the horror of an unchecked spread of coronavirus and the scale of grief and suffering that would have caused.



Let's hope most people obey the spirit of these new restrictions.

[Barry]

Actually, across the spectrum, it ranges from 5% to 0.0000005%.  Given that we have absolutely no idea how many ACTUALLY have had it, the upper limit is therefore 67,000,000, the lower limit is 1500 (cases testing positive).  Therefore, the lower limit fatality rate is currently 35 (deaths) / 67,000,000 = 0.0000005%.  Taking the middle ground would give us 0.000001%.  The fact is, you cannot go by the tested cases.

It's already killed 1 in a million of the world population, which is 0.0001% and it has hardly got started yet.



Spain today: the Police there are very good at authoritarian - they don't need very long memories for all that.

[papasmurf]

Actually, across the spectrum, it ranges from 5% to 0.0000005%.  Given that we have absolutely no idea how many ACTUALLY have had it, the upper limit is therefore 67,000,000, the lower limit is 1500 (cases testing positive).  Therefore, the lower limit fatality rate is currently 35 (deaths) / 67,000,000 = 0.0000005%.  Taking the middle ground would give us 0.000001%.  The fact is, you cannot go by the tested cases.

Frankly I don't care about your analysis I will stick to the current data. Which means for my age and medical condition I stand an 8% chance of dying if I catch it.

[Scott777]

However depending on your age and health conditions the death rate from Covid-19 varies widely with current experience from 1% to 15%.

Actually, across the spectrum, it ranges from 5% to 0.0000005%.  Given that we have absolutely no idea how many ACTUALLY have had it, the upper limit is therefore 67,000,000, the lower limit is 1500 (cases testing positive).  Therefore, the lower limit fatality rate is currently 35 (deaths) / 67,000,000 = 0.0000005%.  Taking the middle ground would give us 0.000001%.  The fact is, you cannot go by the tested cases.

[T00ts]

[size=150]Latest numbers[/size]



1543 confirmed cases   36 deceased.



It means very little. How many are critical? How many are on life support? How many have recovered? What are the ages?



These are surely the details that we need to make a decent assessment of where we are.



On top of that the EU are thinking about closing all the perimeter borders - not including us of course or Ireland and some others. Oh but they all need to agree so will have a video conference. Does that mean that they are happy to still let everyone travel between them. I thought they were all closing their borders against each other. Another example of more EU in a crisis? I see a row coming.

[T00ts]

I think China will have many regrets about how they handled their situation, whereas the UK is at least, attempting to follow the best available scientific advice.

I saw you beat me to it with a similar post after I replied to the duck.



Wife and I would rather like to get it soon, get over it, so we are immune and unrestricted, as we both work p/t at the hospital, it would be very convenient. (Assuming I survive, and there's no guarantees).

Would also be safe to go on holiday without needing quarantine.

It's a very unsettling time as it is impossible to plan in an emergency situation.

Some chap now on Sky news is saying that 1 in 8 will end up in hospital. What does that mean? I in 8 diagnosed, or 1 in 8 of the whole population. The difference is staggering, but still 1 in 8 of those considered high risk will still be too many at once. They talk in riddles and the interviewers don't ask intelligent questions. They seem to have a script and can't think on their feet.

I am confident that the reasoning is to slow down the infection but I really think that ship has already sailed.

I don't think we can make any plans for this year.

[Barry]

This is why I have reservations about lockdowns. They are now talking about next Spring before we see the end. Will they keep the vulnerable locked up til then or are they just hopeful that they will find a cure/vaccine by then? 3-4 months seems very optimistic to me.

I think China will have many regrets about how they handled their situation, whereas the UK is at least, attempting to follow the best available scientific advice.

I saw you beat me to it with a similar post after I replied to the duck.



Wife and I would rather like to get it soon, get over it, so we are immune and unrestricted, as we both work p/t at the hospital, it would be very convenient. (Assuming I survive, and there's no guarantees).

Would also be safe to go on holiday without needing quarantine.

It's a very unsettling time as it is impossible to plan in an emergency situation.

[papasmurf]

After first two orders of hand sanitiser got lost/stolen enroute. (I did get refunds) The third order has just been delivered.

[T00ts]

There are 3,800 in critical condition. When China say it is all contained, it will all start again. It's not worth the damage to their economy. It's now around the world and won't go away until most of us have had it and are immune.

This is why I have reservations about lockdowns. They are now talking about next Spring before we see the end. Will they keep the vulnerable locked up til then or are they just hopeful that they will find a cure/vaccine by then? 3-4 months seems very optimistic to me.