A deal has been reached!!!!

[GerryT]

In your own ill-informed and unsubstantiated opinion. And there is will end this futile exchange

What are you talking about, the UK govt, even the likes of that donkey Reese Mogg has conceded that there will be an economic hit. The experts say it and you'll prob say experts get it wrong. That's why they earn 2 or 3 hundred thousand a yr. If your argument is the UK won't see a finical hit they your deluded, if you talk about taking back control I might disagree but that would be your opinion versus mine.

Maybe you just want to argue about a silly percentage, the simple message is a hard brexit will hurt the UK, a lot.

[Stevlin]

To be honest, your position that we will be much better off within a few years, mentioned above, is massively more optimistic than even the spartan Brexit supporters - even they have stated that it will be many years (possibly up to 50 years according to even JRM) before we are better off.  You appear to be on your own in thinking that the UK will be better off through really cool trade deals within a few years.  Well - actually I guess Nigel Farage and that lot would probably try to claim it, but you are way out there.

It is high time that you realised just  repeating your usual tripe doesn't make it factual...and let's face it , the 'evidence' is absolutely NOT favouring your claims. Maybe you could attempt to provide some credible 'evidence' for your assertions, such as maintaining economic 'experts' forecasting doom and gloom....despite those same 'experts' being proven wrong when they made similar predictions over merely holding the Brexit referendum.



I much prefer to look at 'reality' - and THAT tells us that the EU is unique...meaning that NORMALITY, is NOT being in the EU....and that covers the great majority of countries. Undoubtedly there will be an initial economic 'hit' - as the 'market' does not like the unknown.....but only about 6% of UK businesses conduct trade with the EU.....and it is clearly in the interests of the EU to maintain what is a very good export market for them.



Undoubtedly the 'hit' will be felt more by the UK, and Germany....but both countries will survive .....and as I say, it is pure nonsense to speak as if membership of a unique political entity is a necessity for allegedly promoting trade  membership.

However, that 'hit' will not be everlasting, as many nations have already lined themselves up to negotiate mutually advantageous trade deals with the UK....and time is on our side.....because trading based on  WTO rules is hardly the end of the world... in fact, one could again state that it is the NORM.. and when did NORMALITY become such a dreadful state to be in?

[Major Sinic]

In your own ill-informed and unsubstantiated opinion. And there is will end this futile exchange

[Javert]

Sorry Javert I've had enough, you're staggering around like a ballerina with cramp. Now you are pulling 5% likelihood of prospering out of the blue with no rationale behind it or are you going to tell us what you meant to imply with that but didn't. This is an estimate I suggest that your 'experts' wouldn't agree with either.

Correct - you can't prove 5% or 100%, but most economists and experts believe the probability is very low.  Maybe it's 10% or 4% - whatever, the point is it's not 95% according to all the experts.



Maybe you can post some evidence that most or the majority of experts in the things I've outlined have stated that the UK will be better off outside the EU?



To be honest, your position that we will be much better off within a few years, mentioned above, is massively more optimistic than even the spartan Brexit supporters - even they have stated that it will be many years (possibly up to 50 years according to even JRM) before we are better off.  You appear to be on your own in thinking that the UK will be better off through really cool trade deals within a few years.  Well - actually I guess Nigel Farage and that lot would probably try to claim it, but you are way out there.

[Major Sinic]

Just to clarify my 100% comment, what I meant to imply was that most of those experts think the UK's probability of being better off long term by leaving the EU and then doing individual trade deals with each other country or block is very low.  i.e. by no being 100%, it's more like 5% if the general global situation remains as predicted.  Of course, if there is some major upheaval that no forecaster can predict, this could change, but it could also change the opposite way as well.



To me based on my understanding of the typical rules of how economies work in the long term, this is taking a huge risk with a large % of your revenue, in exchange for a gamble that other magnificent deals will offset this.



I've not seen any company or country ever do that before and stay in business.



Edit - it's kind of like smoking cigarettes knowing full well that there's a 50% chance it will kill you.  For sure you have the choice to do that, but most people don't want to.

Sorry Javert I've had enough, you're staggering around like a ballerina with cramp. Now you are pulling 5% likelihood of prospering out of the blue with no rationale behind it or are you going to tell us what you meant to imply with that but didn't. This is an estimate I suggest that your 'experts' wouldn't agree with either.

[T00ts]

Misunderstood. 22,000 have voted nationwide, but they need 5, 000 on a different petition to have her deselected, it's at 3,271 - not enough yet.

 :tick:

[Cassie]

Really? That's well deserved.

Misunderstood. 22,000 have voted nationwide, but they need 5, 000 on a different petition to have her deselected, it's at 3,271 - not enough yet.

[Javert]

Just to clarify my 100% comment, what I meant to imply was that most of those experts think the UK's probability of being better off long term by leaving the EU and then doing individual trade deals with each other country or block is very low.  i.e. by no being 100%, it's more like 5% if the general global situation remains as predicted.  Of course, if there is some major upheaval that no forecaster can predict, this could change, but it could also change the opposite way as well.



To me based on my understanding of the typical rules of how economies work in the long term, this is taking a huge risk with a large % of your revenue, in exchange for a gamble that other magnificent deals will offset this.



I've not seen any company or country ever do that before and stay in business.



Edit - it's kind of like smoking cigarettes knowing full well that there's a 50% chance it will kill you.  For sure you have the choice to do that, but most people don't want to.

[Major Sinic]

I don't overlook any of those things.



I have spent a lot of time the last 4 years reading up on various stories and media - it's pretty clear that there are very few of the experts I mentioned above who think the UK is 100% sure to be better off long term.  Most of them expect the UK to be worse off in the long term unless there are other major global events which render the UK's choice correct in hindsight.



I have worked in a global company for nearly 30 years and I have done projects in quite a few different countries - I don't claim to be a world leading expert, but I suspect I know more than the majority of people about it.



I accept your points.  However when you look at history, momentum (not Labour momentum but the momentum of the current huge world economy), and the way economies have responded to change over the last decades, the factors you outline are likely IMO to be heavily outweighed by the two points I made above, and that we already do a lot of trade with ROW outside of the EU and growing, despite being in the EU - it's the differential that we should be looking at which is what you rightly point out.



We may be the 5th (or probably by now 6th) richest country in the world on paper, but we are still a minnow compared to the top 3 - we do not have the clout or markets to command the power that you assume.



The 2 factors I outlined above are in my view far bigger influencers, and actually my real global experience in the countries I've worked with chimes with this, in the sense that it seems to me that barriers like language and culture are a far bigger factor in increasing trade with far away areas than the existence or not of a legal trade agreement.  Trade agreements are helpful but they don't actually create any trade on their own.

Unfortunately there is precious little that you and I have ever, or will ever agree on. I believe that I have sufficient grounds to think that my view of the future is probable, and so do you. The fact is our views are diametrically opposed. Aspects that you suggest I might underestimate, I feel you probably over estimate and vice versa.



The second reason why I find it so frustrating attempting to debate with you is that you are forever reinterpreting and restating points made. As I have said before I find that this annoying habit of your lacks integrity.



You have introduced a substantive change of meaning in this rebuttal of my rebuttal, by suggesting that your 'vast majority' of experts don't think that the UK is 100% sure to be better off in the future. Economic prophesy is not an exact science and very few, if any, so called experts would ever suggest that something is 100% sure. I am optimistic and more confident than not that our departure from the EU under the present deal will increase the nations prosperity in the medium and long term. But I am not 100% sure because I am not a fool and accept that there are a number of variables. As an example a hard left government implementing Marxist economic policies would, in my opinion, shared I am sure by most of your experts, do massive damage to our economy resulting in a far greater decline in long term living standards particularly of the poorest, than the short term decline resulting from Brexit.



Finally I never said that trade agreements did create trade on their own, but they are often essential before trade can start. Equally business orientated people invest in major steps to overcome cultural and language barriers. In this regard the UK is fortunate to have as its prime language English which is the global commercial language of the world.

[Sheepy]

That's only because the UK is in charge, in the ROI we stopped eating cardboard when we kicked out the UK.

I guess damage limitation is on the cards then,after all you were only just all saying how great it was with EU money flowing.

[Javert]

As far as you can tell sums up your post. It is based entirely on your subjective Remainer stance and your assertions about 'vast majorities' are just that, personal assertions. I sense that you personally have minimal experience of international trade.



You overlook unique benefits which alter the relative strengths in negotiations. I refer to the fact our economy is the fifth largest in the world, our financial services infrastructure is a world leader and one of our biggest foreign income earners excluding the EU, our global leadership in technology and medical research, our credit worthiness, our language, are all areas where we have and can offer unique benefits to trade partners.



You also overlook the fact that the EU share of the global economy is shrinking year on year and will be around 13% in 2019 and that includes the UK economy, the second largest in the EU. This is because to 87% of the world view the EU is nothing more than a trade protection block, and an increasingly uncompetitive one, hence the preponderance of excessively high tariffs. This 87% of the rest of world economy provides us with massive trade opportunities, with 31 different national negotiations either agreed in principle or under discussion.



Just because we will not initially at least have a free trade arrangement with the EU does not mean we won't trade. Business people are far more pragmatic than idealists and particularly opposition politicians. They are honest enough to admit their agreements are motivated by self interest - a wonderful motivator.

I don't overlook any of those things.



I have spent a lot of time the last 4 years reading up on various stories and media - it's pretty clear that there are very few of the experts I mentioned above who think the UK is 100% sure to be better off long term.  Most of them expect the UK to be worse off in the long term unless there are other major global events which render the UK's choice correct in hindsight.



I have worked in a global company for nearly 30 years and I have done projects in quite a few different countries - I don't claim to be a world leading expert, but I suspect I know more than the majority of people about it.



I accept your points.  However when you look at history, momentum (not Labour momentum but the momentum of the current huge world economy), and the way economies have responded to change over the last decades, the factors you outline are likely IMO to be heavily outweighed by the two points I made above, and that we already do a lot of trade with ROW outside of the EU and growing, despite being in the EU - it's the differential that we should be looking at which is what you rightly point out.



We may be the 5th (or probably by now 6th) richest country in the world on paper, but we are still a minnow compared to the top 3 - we do not have the clout or markets to command the power that you assume.



The 2 factors I outlined above are in my view far bigger influencers, and actually my real global experience in the countries I've worked with chimes with this, in the sense that it seems to me that barriers like language and culture are a far bigger factor in increasing trade with far away areas than the existence or not of a legal trade agreement.  Trade agreements are helpful but they don't actually create any trade on their own.

[GerryT]

Best the EU start dipping their hands in their pockets then Toots,it won't come cheap,the ROI still has homeless kids eating from cardboard.

I guess the bullshitters from Dublin university forgot to mention such things.

That's only because the UK is in charge, in the ROI we stopped eating cardboard when we kicked out the UK.

[Cassie]

I'm glad BJ will coming out looking good, because Corbyn and is ilk are horrible.

[GerryT]

I thought it was all about a united Ireland. Did I miss something?

No not all about a united IRL or all about trade. I've said this before, I would prefer the UK to remain, I think that's best for the UK and the EU, but the UK gets to decide that for itself. Failing that a good or close trade deal when brexit is finalised. I do import product from the UK but it's actually manufactured in Germany, so if it were a hard brexit I would try move supplier but in my case that would be very difficult. On top of that I see the NI issue as a UK created problem, there is the GFA and that says no additional barriers to trade & movement of people on the Island of Ireland, so it has been up to the UK to resolve this, the Johnson (actually May's) deal does do that.



In fairness to Johnson this proposal keeps the spirit of the GFA, but it does introduce two problems. First there will be barriers to trade between NI and GB, but also as there will be a vote every 4yrs this will discourage FDI investment. Who wants to build say a pharmaceutical plant in NI if in 4yrs the whole trading arrangements can change, that brings too much risk I would think.



My previous post was about Johnson and how he has put himself in a position to win a GE in the UK. It doesn't matter how the vote tomorrow goes, he comes out looking good.

[Cassie]

As far as you can tell sums up your post. It is based entirely on your subjective Remainer stance and your assertions about 'vast majorities' are just that, personal assertions. I sense that you personally have minimal experience of international trade.



You overlook unique benefits which alter the relative strengths in negotiations. I refer to the fact our economy is the fifth largest in the world, our financial services infrastructure is a world leader and one of our biggest foreign income earners excluding the EU, our global leadership in technology and medical research, our credit worthiness, our language, are all areas where we have and can offer unique benefits to trade partners.



You also overlook the fact that the EU share of the global economy is shrinking year on year and will be around 13% in 2019 and that includes the UK economy, the second largest in the EU. This is because to 87% of the world view the EU is nothing more than a trade protection block, and an increasingly uncompetitive one, hence the preponderance of excessively high tariffs. This 87% of the rest of world economy provides us with massive trade opportunities, with 31 different national negotiations either agreed in principle or under discussion.



Just because we will not initially at least have a free trade arrangement with the EU does not mean we won't trade. Business people are far more pragmatic than idealists and particularly opposition politicians. They are honest enough to admit their agreements are motivated by self interest - a wonderful motivator.

A lot of people voted to take back sovereignty.