How well is the government handling the pandemic?

[Javert]

But only at the cost of reconfiguring the NHS to deal with it. Operating theaters were converted to ICU's staff worked flat out even though they weren't provided with the correct PPE

Beelbeebub - I agree with pretty much everything you posted which won't be a surprise as I posted many of the same points on other threads.



One thing is that I posted a few days ago that the ventilator usage in the UK had been at 135% or more of the "normal" ventilator capacity that existed before they started to reconfigure.  I was challenged that I was making this up.  I definitely heard it somewhere a few weeks ago but I was unable to source the government data.  Have you seen something on this?



I definitely heard several times that if we had not cancelled operations etc and added more ICU beds, the NHS would have been overwhelmed already in March/April.

[BeElBeeBub]

It wasn't bad luck. They allowed hundreds of Chinese workers back into the country after they had been on their Chinese new year jolly.

That allowed in a huge infection base with no checks whatsoever and no quarantine.

bad luck that they happened to have a center with close contact to Wuhan, the outbreak happened just before CNY and their household structure and demographics made them slightly more vunerable.



I should point out that we'll in to April, the UK had zero checks on incoming passengers. Some family friends flew into Heathrow from the far East in early April and were shocked there was nothing at the airport. No checks, no questions, not even an information leaflet.

You are making the figures up. Why would you do that - anti - government agenda?

nope, those are the best estimates of the notoriously leftwing anti government rag the Financial Times, using the government's own figures corrected using the revealed discrepancy between the figures announced on any given day Vs the actual figures released later

Hardly perceptible difference in the graphs.

Good visualisation.



https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&location=Italy&location=Spain&location=United+Kingdom">https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=d ... ed+Kingdom">https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths&location=Italy&location=Spain&location=United+Kingdom



Admittedly since the OP, the UK's rate has dropped closer to Spain/Italy, though it's hard to tell exactly.

Yes they have. Do we assume they are recording their figures in the same way as us?

every country varies



For example Belgium has a very open criteria for classifying deaths so appears to have a lot more deaths per capita. The UK has a very restrictive criteria. At one point you only got classified as CV if you tested +ve. So even someone dying with all the symptoms after their partner had tested +ve wouldn't be classed as CV if they hadn't been tested.  In addition France publishes deaths outside of hospital as well. I don't think German figures include non-hospital deaths so would be broadly comparable to the UK.

Agreed, but it's not the plague either.

given the black death killed about 30% of the population that's a pretty low bar!  As I've said, it's about comparable to the 1919 epidemic.  

Government have no control over a virus.

seriously?  Governments have massive control. How do you think other countries managed to suppress their outbreaks? Random chance?

What's this got to do with the government?

it has a lot if you're are trying to decide what to do.



We focus on the death figures, but what we don't know is the long term effects. What if it's chronic and all the people who got it mildly or were asymptomatic have depressed immune systems, or have long term heart problems?



The HPV virus is mild. You get some warts. Big deal right? Except it's responsible for the lions share of cervical cancer as well as a significant share of rectal and throat cancers.



HIV has no immediate effects. But 10 years later it can be fatal.  We don't know what the long term effects are, so simply going "we don't know they are definitely bad so let's take a punt" is supremely irresponsible for a government.

There's no proof it won't burn itself out. In fact, Sweden suggests it will and we need to watch that country very carefully.

there is literally no proof it does. The common cold hasn't burnt itself out.  As people repeatedly point out, it's not so fatal that it kills every host.  We have documented cases of reinfection on tests on recovered show the antibodies seem to be short lived.



As for Sweden, orcs a common misconception they have done nothing.  That's not true, they have changed their behaviour massively. They haven't had (many) mandatory measures but lots of voluntary measures that have been well adhrered to eg minimising non-essential travel.



All of that will reduce the R factor. Notably, Sweden's figures are much worse than Norway's.



The UK was trying the Swedish approach.  Remember that first weekend where they said "distance" and the parks were full? Then the gov switched from advising to mandating.

5% have no known previous underlying conditions.

you need to check what "underlying conditions" are. Things like like mild, controlled, hypertension, having had cancer in the last 10 years, having a BMI above normal.  A large section of the population have "underlying conditions" 40% of over 65's have hypertension.



The image that this only carries off those about to die is incorrect. It's carrying of people who are in generally fit and healthy and lead full, active lives.

It's too late to protect people from the virus. Flattening the curve to manageable levels has been done. Care homes failed to protect the people in their care. That was not the government's fault. What could have been the government's fault was allowing travellers back into the country without quarantine in the early stages. A public enquiry may tell us.

Yes we managed, just, to avoid overloading the NHS, that is positive.



But only at the cost of reconfiguring the NHS to deal with it. Operating theaters were converted to ICU's staff worked flat out even though they weren't provided with the correct PPE



The elderly in care homes were left to die there. Patients recovered were sent to care homes without being tested to check if they were shedding virus.



The ventilator procurement program was a PR stunt. They gov has consistently lied about it's participation in the EU procurement schemes. It's been less than truthful about PPE delivery (counting paper towels and bin bags as PPE? gloves singly not as pairs?)



At every stage the majority of this government has treated this as a PR problem to be spun out and not engaged with effective leadership.

[BeElBeeBub]

Actually the death rate from Covid 19 for April has averaged out at 802 a day.

the  CV deaths for the weeks ending 10 & 17 April were 7833 and 7288 respectively, so over 1k day average.  Bear in mind that the excess deaths is larger than the CV deaths by a fair margin.

If we really put our backs into the death toll will be about 50,000, but I doubt that will happen. But even if it were, the fatality rate would only be 1 in 1300.

that's not how you calculate fatality rates.



The current best guess of the fatality rate is around 1% *if* appropriate treatment is available



The best "do nothing" estimate is around 500k, which would double the number of deaths for the year.



You say "if we out our backs into [it] the death toll will be about 50,000", putting aside we are already north of 40k, that's exactly the point....



Despite a massive and costly effort it's still killed over 40k people. Imagine what it would have been like if we hadn't done anything.

This is not a minor epidemic. It is a pimple on a minor epidemic's bum.

The figures for this (infectiousness and fatality) are coming out about as bad, if not slightly worse, than the 1919 "Spanish" Flu epidemic.

[Barry]

... also your comments about other health conditions are missing the point.  There are many millions of people with all sorts of minor long term health conditions who can be expected to live a long and relatively healthy life ahead for many years.  It's completely incorrect to dismiss the deaths just because someone had some kind of other health condition.

No, I get the point that those people would probably still be alive if it were not for the virus.

The main problem was that their number was up.

[Javert]

I do see this argument a lot (often in the form "but PPE should be NHS procurement's responsibility)



I agree, there is a lot of levels of responsibility, but the overall responsibility is still the government's.  Part of their job is to make sure the parts of the machine below them are prepared and working efficiently.  Like a F1 boss saying, "it wasn't may fault the car broke down, it was the engine's fault!" - ultimately their job was to make sure the engine was up to the job.





Except, it didn't catch every leader out.  Italy, France and Spain got hit hard, but the UK seems to have been hit at least as hard when we didn't have to be.  Germany has managed well.  NZ seems to have managed to avoid the 1st wave exceptionally well.  Australia and South Korea have also managed well.



There have been multiple mistakes made throughout (testing, PPE, late lock down, mixed messaging) and zero admission of them.  Johnson even called it a success - the only terms that can be claimed is that we didn't overwhelm the NHS, but only barely and only because the NHS reconfigured itself in a month to handle CV at the expense of most other functions and at great personal risk to the staff.

Did you see Panorama last night on the massively biased BBC?  One of the points they made is that the government was warned many times that medical gowns should be in the pandemic stockpile and many times they failed to add them - they had documents proving this.  Probably the documents were faked though since the BBC is biased  :ZIP:



@Barry - as far as I'm aware, the UK made no attempt to stop people travelling into the UK from China, until way way after France had done so.  also your comments about other health conditions are missing the point.  There are many millions of people with all sorts of minor long term health conditions who can be expected to live a long and relatively healthy life ahead for many years.  It's completely incorrect to dismiss the deaths just because someone had some kind of other health condition.

[Barry]

  Italy had the bad luck to be the first European country to be hit.

It wasn't bad luck. They allowed hundreds of Chinese workers back into the country after they had been on their Chinese new year jolly.

That allowed in a huge infection base with no checks whatsoever and no quarantine.

France also counts both deaths in and out of hospital in it's total.  The UK total only counts in hospital deaths.  When you take out of hospital death into account the UK's total of 40k is way ahead of France.

You are making the figures up. Why would you do that - anti - government agenda?

The drop in death rate in the UK appears to be slower than in both Italy and Spain.

Hardly perceptible difference in the graphs.

On the other hand Germany, S.Korea, NZ, Australia etc all have had better results.

Yes they have. Do we assume they are recording their figures in the same way as us?

It's not a minor bug.

Agreed, but it's not the plague either.

30-35 yo have a 20% higher death rate than usual (not 20% death rate)

50-55 yo have a 50% higher death rate  

over 65's are dying at nearly twice the rate they normally die.

Government have no control over a virus.

Plus we don't actually know what "recovered" means. Plenty of the recovered have lung damage, chronic fatigue etc and there are now (merciful rare) reports that children who have had no symptoms are developing inflamed hearts.

What's this got to do with the government?

There's also no proof that this will "burn itself out" (other than letting it run rampant which would result in a conservative 500k extra deaths).

There's no proof it won't burn itself out. In fact, Sweden suggests it will and we need to watch that country very carefully.

Neither is it just taking those "at death door" (a cursory glance at the NHS workers who've died should tell you that).  90% of those who end up in ICU have no serious co-morbidity and live daily life unassisted.

5% have no known previous underlying conditions.

Even with the massive steps the UK has taken, this "minor bug" was killing over 1000 people a day through early April. (The average death rate at this time of year is a little over 1000 a day so we are at around 2x normal)

It's too late to protect people from the virus. Flattening the curve to manageable levels has been done. Care homes failed to protect the people in their care. That was not the government's fault. What could have been the government's fault was allowing travellers back into the country without quarantine in the early stages. A public enquiry may tell us.

[Borchester]

Even with the massive steps the UK has taken, this "minor bug" was killing over 1000 people a day through early April. (The average death rate at this time of year is a little over 1000 a day so we are at around 2x normal)



Without the steps take, the rate would have been multiple times that.

Actually the death rate from Covid 19 for April has averaged out at 802 a day.



If we really put our backs into the death toll will be about 50,000, but I doubt that will happen. But even if it were, the fatality rate would only be 1 in 1300.



This is not a minor epidemic. It is a pimple on a minor epidemic's bum.

[papasmurf]

Fair enough Pappy. As soon as that mate of yours in the tinfoil hat who keeps you up to date with all the inside news gets to tell me I am dead, I will say, bugger it looks as though Pappy was right after all.

I don't have any mates with tinfoil hats, it is people like you who are in denial who are a very big problem.

It isn't "just" the sniffles, people who recover it are likely in the long term to have lung, heart, and liver problems.

Frankly you need to extract your head from your arse. (Seriously.)

[Borchester]

Lucky you, your tune will change when one of you catches it and carks it.

 It would appear from todays news many thousands have carked it outside of hospitals and are only just appearing in the data.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52455072">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52455072

Fair enough Pappy. As soon as that mate of yours in the tinfoil hat who keeps you up to date with all the inside news gets to tell me I am dead, I will say, bugger it looks as though Pappy was right after all.

[papasmurf]

Well, I am alright. My family and friends are ok

Lucky you, your tune will change when one of you catches it and carks it.

 It would appear from todays news many thousands have carked it outside of hospitals and are only just appearing in the data.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52455072">https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52455072

[BeElBeeBub]

I don't see how France and Italy have handled matters better. The deaths in both countries have been higher than the UK yet the populations are either the same size (France) or smaller (Italy)

I didn't say they had handled it better, I said they (and Spain) had been hit hard.    It should be noted that France had a good dose of bad luck with a big chunk of their infections being traced back to a 5 day religious event in Alsace in mid Feb.  Italy had the bad luck to be the first European country to be hit.



France also counts both deaths in and out of hospital in it's total.  The UK total only counts in hospital deaths.  When you take out of hospital death into account the UK's total of 40k is way ahead of France.



The drop in death rate in the UK appears to be slower than in both Italy and Spain.



On the other hand Germany, S.Korea, NZ, Australia etc all have had better results.

The problem is that we are faced with a minor bug for which there is no cure and the sensible thing would be to let it burn itself out. But because we live in a much gentler world than before, the various politicians are trying to look busy so it has become a matter of keep two metres apart and no more wiping you nose on your shirt tails. It is a bit like being in the army. An idle soldier is an unhappy soldier so whitewash the barracks and paint the grass green.

It's not a minor bug.



30-35 yo have a 20% higher death rate than usual (not 20% death rate)

50-55 yo have a 50% higher death rate  

over 65's are dying at nearly twice the rate they normally die.



Plus we don't actually know what "recovered" means. Plenty of the recovered have lung damage, chronic fatigue etc and there are now (merciful rare) reports that children who have had no symptoms are developing inflamed hearts.



There's also no proof that this will "burn itself out" (other than letting it run rampant which would result in a conservative 500k extra deaths).



Neither is it just taking those "at death door" (a cursory glance at the NHS workers who've died should tell you that).  90% of those who end up in ICU have no serious co-morbidity and live daily life unassisted.



Here's a quite from critical care lead at Liverpool Hospital

Your interpretation of the @ICNARC report would fit with our experience. #COVID19 patients admitted to our ICU are generally healthier than our normal patient population, but despite this, have a high mortality.  People dying in middle age, many years ahead of them.

and an intensive care specialist at a Welsh hospital

This is definitely what we've seen on the "front line". Young patients with no or very minimal comorbidities, and by that I mean well controlled hypertension on one tablet, or impaired glucose tolerance or slightly elevated bmi. People who would fly through itu easily usually

Even with the massive steps the UK has taken, this "minor bug" was killing over 1000 people a day through early April. (The average death rate at this time of year is a little over 1000 a day so we are at around 2x normal)



Without the steps take, the rate would have been multiple times that.

[Borchester]

FFS.

Well, I am alright. My family and friends are ok and you are locked away in a cellar in Poldark country. So how bad is that?

[papasmurf]

The problem is that we are faced with a minor bug

FFS.

[Borchester]

 





Except, it didn't catch every leader out.  Italy, France and Spain got hit hard, but the UK seems to have been hit at least as hard when we didn't have to be.  Germany has managed well.  NZ seems to have managed to avoid the 1st wave exceptionally well.  Australia and South Korea have also managed well.

I don't see how France and Italy have handled matters better. The deaths in both countries have been higher than the UK yet the populations are either the same size (France) or smaller (Italy)



The problem is that we are faced with a minor bug for which there is no cure and the sensible thing would be to let it burn itself out. But because we live in a much gentler world than before, the various politicians are trying to look busy so it has become a matter of keep two metres apart and no more wiping you nose on your shirt tails. It is a bit like being in the army. An idle soldier is an unhappy soldier so whitewash the barracks and paint the grass green.

[BeElBeeBub]

I have already started a thread that asks if the buck is being allocated to the wrong place. Yes the government has overall control but for me there have been numerous failings from those in organisational positions who have simply not done their jobs efficiently.

I do see this argument a lot (often in the form "but PPE should be NHS procurement's responsibility)



I agree, there is a lot of levels of responsibility, but the overall responsibility is still the government's.  Part of their job is to make sure the parts of the machine below them are prepared and working efficiently.  Like a F1 boss saying, "it wasn't may fault the car broke down, it was the engine's fault!" - ultimately their job was to make sure the engine was up to the job.

Until this is over no-one will be hung out to dry and yes in part it is a shambles. Just who could/would have done it better, with fewer deaths and healthier economy? I think this is one black hole that would have caught most leaders out.

Except, it didn't catch every leader out.  Italy, France and Spain got hit hard, but the UK seems to have been hit at least as hard when we didn't have to be.  Germany has managed well.  NZ seems to have managed to avoid the 1st wave exceptionally well.  Australia and South Korea have also managed well.



There have been multiple mistakes made throughout (testing, PPE, late lock down, mixed messaging) and zero admission of them.  Johnson even called it a success - the only terms that can be claimed is that we didn't overwhelm the NHS, but only barely and only because the NHS reconfigured itself in a month to handle CV at the expense of most other functions and at great personal risk to the staff.